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Fundstrat Expects Emerging Markets Rally To Spark Bitcoin Boom, Potentially Pushing BTC to $20k

Emerging Market Rally To Aid Bitcoin

For some reason or another, investor sentiment has begun to turn decidedly positive in the cryptocurrency market. Tom Lee, the co-founder and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, added to this influx of hopium-laced messages through a piece of analysis he pushed to his Twitter following, many of which are embroiled in all things Bitcoin.

Lee explained that from this perspective of his New York-based advisory outfit, emerging markets, whose value is captured through the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, pulled down BTC over 2018. More specifically, this specific index fell by 27% over 2018, as Bitcoin lost 70%.

While there’s an argument that the seemingly related performance of the two markets is just an untimely coincidence, Fundstrat seems to be arguing that cryptocurrencies are more emerging than traditional, hence the correlation.

And with the American advisory expecting for emerging markets to outperform U.S. equities over 2019, it fully expects for Bitcoin to post a solid performance over the coming months.

In fact, Lee writes that if BTC “catches up” to macro markets, it could reach as high as $10,000 or $20,000.

What Else Is Tom Lee Bullish About?

Although the forecasted performance of emerging markets is a catalyst that Lee is most excited about, he has also recently drawn attention to a number of trends that could set the stage for a Bitcoin rally.

Per reports from this outlet posted last week, the investor has looked to the slightly foreboding performance of the U.S. dollar as a potential tailwind for the leading cryptocurrency. In an interview with CNBC, he went on to draw attention to technicals, touching on the ever-important 200-week moving average. BTC has purportedly begun to trade right around the 200 MA, signaling a potential breakout.

Fundstrat’s de-facto figurehead even touched a bit on the adoption that cryptocurrency has seen in the hyperinflation-hit Venezuela, where locals are finding a true use case for a deflationary, decentralized, and uncensorable asset in Bitcoin and altcoins.

Even if all these macro trends, technicals, and fundamentals end up not resulting in fruitful bouts of buying pressure, Lee seems to be sure that Bitcoin will survive. Some how, some way. In an interview with Fox Business, he noted that BTC has experienced 70% pullbacks previously, and survived, even thrived. To many, this cycle isn’t likely going to be anything different.

Photo by André François McKenzie on Unsplash

The post Fundstrat Expects Emerging Markets Rally To Spark Bitcoin Boom, Potentially Pushing BTC to $20k appeared first on Ethereum World News.

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Tom Lee: CBOE Ethereum Futures May Hurt ETH, But Benefit Bitcoin (BTC)

BTC Could Rise As A Result of Ethereum Futures

Even in a market downturn, development in this nascent industry rages, with firms continually releasing innovative products and services that could change the future of crypto. And as reported by Ethereum World News previously, the CBOE, the foremost US-based options exchange, is just months away from launching Ether futures that will be based on Gemini markets.

This news immediately sparked speculation about the effect this vehicle would have on the market, with many optimists noting that this futures contract should help to propel the price, development, and maturation of Ethereum, and subsequently, the growth of this industry.

While many agreed with this hope, Tom Lee, the head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, expects this news to benefit the price of Bitcoin (BTC) more than the price of Ethereum (ETH).

Speaking with Business Insider reporters, Lee, who has become well-known, if not near-infamous for his seemingly undying bullish sentiment on Bitcoin, noted that Ether futures will allow speculators to weigh down on the price of ETH.

His claims seem to be corroborated by the historical price action of Bitcoin following the initial CBOE and CME futures release. Since Bitcoin futures debuted in mid-December of last year, prices tanked, with Bitcoin briefly touching $20,000 before tumbling to $7,200 as it stands today. Some think thatEthereum Blockchain Token this is no unfortunate coincidence, but rather, the effect of short sellers placing bets against Bitcoin via the futures market.

As such, the Fundstrat Bitcoin bull then noted that the same effect, albeit likely not as drastic, could occur this time around as well, with the planned December 2018 introduction of the CBOE-backed Ether futures contract potentially lining up with a substantial decline in the price of ETH.

On the other hand, however, Lee added that the introduction of Ether futures may alleviate some of the pain placed on Bitcoin by bears, as the short interest may translate from the BTC contract to the ETH contract. The Fundstrat executive elaborated, stating:

“Since December of this year, if one was bearish on any aspect of crypto but did not want to own the underlying, they could short BTC. They can now short eth, means the net short on BTC in futures would fall.”

Some skeptics of this theory pointed out that it is somewhat counterintuitive, but upon thinking about it further, it is clear that Tom Lee’s thought does hold some credence at the very least.

Ethereum has already had a bad year, so many are hoping that the eventual introduction of these futures will not hamper the price of the asset further. But for now, only time will tell what the short to mid-term fate of the second largest crypto asset will be.

At the time of writing, Ethereum is down 1.4% in the past 24 hours, as it currently sits at $294 after falling from yesterday’s highs at $303.

ethereumImage Courtesy of TradingView.com

Photo by JESHOOTS.COM on Unsplash
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Bitcoin Fends Off Further Decline, But An Analyst Says Its “Game Over”

As reported by Ethereum World News on Wednesday, Bitcoin fell to a near-monthly low at $6,200 as the market reacted to the SEC announcement regarding the VanEck-backed ETF. Despite the fact that the state of the market looked dismal, with altcoins bleeding out en-masse and selling pressure ramping up, for now, Bitcoin has staved off a further decline.

On Thursday morning, the cryptocurrency market saw a nice influx of buying volume, with Bitcoin quickly recovering by 3% and altcoins following closely behind. At the time of writing, Bitcoin has currently found a ‘home’ at $6,475 and seems to be holding at this level for the time being.

As aforementioned, altcoins followed the foremost digital asset, with cryptos like XRP and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) actually outperforming Bitcoin by upwards of 1%.

Some investors remain hopeful, with Dan Morehead, the CEO of Pantera Capital, stating that this most recent pullback was just a market “overreaction.” Speaking with CNBC Fast Money, the executive of the crypto investment fund drew attention to the “real-time price feed” which is unique to this fledgling industry.

Adding more on what this meant, Morehead noted that investors often overreact to news, as global traders seek to speculate on how an announcement or decision will affect the price of a crypto asset. The CEO went on to add that Bitcoin could be set to see a longer-term growth figure, as a result of the NYSE’s parent company launching a brand new cryptocurrency platform.

Analysts: Bitcoin Could Head Lower, The Bear Market Isn’t Done Yet 

However, not everybody is on Morehead’s side of the fence, with multiple technical analysts stating that the worse has yet to come for Bitcoin. Issuing a note to his clients, Jeff DeGraff, the head of technical research at Renaissance Macro Research, outlined why Bitcoin remains bearish. The analyst wrote:

“Parabolic moves are notoriously dangerous for short‐sellers … Usually, a top develops that often appears as a descending triangle over months, with reduced volatility and little [fanfare]. Once the top is complete on the support violation, the security in question can often be considered permanently impaired or even ‘game‐over’. We are of course referencing Bitcoin as exhibit ‘A’ in today’s market.”

While the well-respected technician did not give a clear price prediction for the price of Bitcoin, it has become apparent that the asset looks more bearish than it does bullish.

This sentiment was echoed by Mike McGlone at Bloomberg Intelligence, who noted that Bitcoin is “poised” to move even lower, as Bitcoin bulls have seemingly receded into the shadows. In an interview, the Bloomberg analyst stated:

“Bitcoin is in dump mode, following the pump run-up on the potential for a U.S. ETF. It (the dump) may not subside until revisiting good support near $4,000 — last year’s mean.”

Closing off the interview, the analyst called this year’s correction “tame” in comparison to previous bear markets, where Bitcoin often saw upwards of an 80-85% decline.

Photo by Rhett Wesley on Unsplash

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Fundstrat: Bitcoin Price May Soon Go Bullish

Speaking on CNBC’s Fast Money, Fundstrat’s Robert Sluymer mentioned that the Bitcoin Price has been dropping in a short-term even though in the long term the trend remains bullish.

The analyst believes that Bitcoin Price is now set to challenge its downtrend:

“When we think about what does it take to turn a security, a market, a cryptocurrency around, it first needs to bottom, then it needs to reverse through that uptrend or downtrend, and then it needs to turn that trend positive. So we have step one in place.”

For Sluymer, the predictions made by Tom Lee, CEO of the firm he also represents, are not far from reality, and although he failed in his short-term forecasts, it is entirely possible that 2018 will close with a Bitcoin Price of more than $25,000.

The analyst mentioned that the market is testing some levels of supports and resistances in order to determine a solid trend.

The most critical supports are the $7350 and $7000 levels, which confirm a bearish trend.

He considers the $7060s margin as a worrying mark. During the year, Bitcoin Price has reached these levels and then recovered.

As for the critical resistances, he mentioned in the short term the $7800 band as the one that would confirm a bullish trend.

Currently, the Bitcoin Price is – according to coinmarketcap – $7639, which would bring it closer to the bullish team than to the bearish.

Bitcoin is the cryptocurrency taken as a base in the ecosystem of crypto users, so its prices serve as a trend for the rest of the altcoins.

Also, Mr. Sluymer accepted that although they could not foresee such a sharp fall in Bitcoin from 19k to current prices, they were undoubtedly aware of a possible trend breaking.

Bitcoin Price May Soon Reverse a Yearly Bearish Trend

He also commented that as well as they forsaw that event, they now think a bullish trend may occur in the near future.

Other strong bearish analysts believe that bitcoin can reach levels as low as 3k, but these predictions are less credible, at least in the short term.

The Bitcoin Price performance has been bearish, resisting in the band around 7k; however, the triangle pattern, as well as other indicators, may point to a breakout in the trend.

Graph created by Tradingview

Fundstrat is one of the most active technical analysis companies in the world of crypto money. Several Shows and Conferences usually invite Tom Lee, its CEO, to talk about cryptocurrencies behaviors.

Previously, Mr. Lee created a method to measure the feeling of Bitcoin Hodlers: the Bitcoin Misery Index.
According to this indicator, it is advisable to buy bitcoin right now because according to the predictions, when it reaches its minimums, there is a high probability of obtaining strong income in 1 year.

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Bitcoin has Bottomed Out and Will Begin to Rally, Says Fundstrat Analyst

According to Robert Sluymer, Bitcoin has finally bottomed out. Sluymer, the chief technical strategist at Fundstrat believes the number one cryptocurrency will soon begin to recover. The crypto analyst pointed to international trade tensions and the developing situation in Italy as some of the reasons behind the imminent Bitcoin revival.

$7,000 is Bitcoin’s Bottom Level

Speaking via telephone with CNBC, Sluymer identified $7,000 as the bottom price level for Bitcoin.

When we step back, we see the first phase starting to happen. We think Bitcoin is starting to bottom off some very key support around $7,000 and we think it’s going to start a recovery process here.

According to Sluymer, Bitcoin has declined several times in 2018 but has hardly ever dropped below $7,000. The only exception was at the start of February 2018 when BTC prices plunged to $6,000, its lowest level since November 2017. Towards the end of May, BTC prices fell to $7,054 but didn’t slide lower than the $7,000 threshold. Sluymer believes this is a positive development for the number one cryptocurrency saying:

That’s certainly the first step in a bottoming process – to see some sort of consolidation or a basing taking hold.

If Bitcoin has indeed found a stable bottom price limit, then the next step would be a price rally. In December 2017, BTC prices reached a record high of $19,500. However, 2018 has been a challenging year not just for Bitcoin but the entire cryptocurrency market as well.

Market Indicators Show $7,800 as the Next Price Hurdle

Sluymer points to market indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as signs that BTC is gaining some momentum in preparation for a rally. Looking at the chart below, Bitcoin’s RSI is currently at 40. Typically, RSI of 30 and above indicate oversold conditions. As a result, Sluymer thinks now is the best time to go long on BTC saying:

We [Fundstrat] think the setup is very attractive here. If you’re short we think you should be very careful and reducing your short exposure. I think if you’re looking to be long this is where you start adding here to your long exposure.

According to Sluymer, $7,800 is the next threshold level for Bitcoin to surpass. Since May 23, BTC hasn’t reached the $7,800 mark. Sluymer is confident that all the indicators point to at least a short-term rally in that direction, saying:

The next thing that has to happen is to see Bitcoin actually rally through the downtrend and we use the 15-day moving average, it’s very simplistic, but it’s a pretty good proxy across most markets. Its 15-day moving average of roughly $7,800 “will be the next hurdle for it to get through.

Fellow Fundstrat analyst, Tom Lee has on many occasions said that BTC would trade at $20,000 by the middle of the year and even reach the $25,000 by the end of 2018.

Do you Bitcoin prices have reached their lowest level? Do you expect the much talked about price rally to begin in June? Keep the conversation going in the comment section below.

Images courtesy of Twitter (@rsluymer) and CNBC.

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$25k, $91k and 250k Bitcoin (BTC) Price Predictions

The crypto markets are still breathing and firing on all cylinders through a weekend that was meant to test the volume that had pumped Bitcoin (BTC) on Thursday by $1,000. Some traders were skeptical that the value of BTC would maintain $8,000 during the weekend. However, BTC is still strong and trading at $8,311. The total crypto market cap has been steady at $333 Billion and seems to be headed up within the coming days.

It is with such events that there has been some bullish price predictions about the King of The Markets, Bitcoin. Fundstrat’s co-founder, Thomas Lee, has been bullish about Bitcoin all year long. His recent price prediction is that BTC will reach the value of $25,000 by December. In a CNBC interview, Lee is quoted as saying:

“We still feel pretty confident that bitcoin is a great risk-reward and we think it could reach $25,000 by the end of the year…Bitcoin was incredibly oversold [in the past]. When you look at metrics like price-to-book, which is ‘money cost,’ or our bitcoin misery index, it’s pretty much what you saw at the end of the 2014 bear market, not the start.”

The same Lee has also predicted that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach the very high value of $91,000 by 2020 based on performance of the markets after past dips. Lee has had a good streak at predicting Bitcoin’s prices as he was always bullish about the coin even when it was under $3,000 in the markets. It is such believers that make this crypto-verse exciting.

The final, and not necessarily last price prediction for the day, is by Tim Draper who has been quoted as saying that we shall see $250,000 per Bitcoin by 2022. He made the bold statement at his self-named Draper University on April 12th this year. He is quoted as saying via Reddit:

“I’m thinking $250,000 a bitcoin by 2022. Believe it. They’re going to think you’re crazy, but believe it. It’s happening and it’s going to be awesome!”

Nothing is ever crazy in the Crypto-verse. Perhaps crazy has become the norm so much so that we do not notice any additional craziness. What then is expected with a booming of Bitcoin, is a similar boom in the values of Alt coins. It seems like we are heading towards good times in the markets!

[Photo: Tim Draper. Source: ccn.com]

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‘HODL Bitcoin (BTC) Till After Taxes,’ Thomas Lee

Bitcoin (BTC) had earlier been showing some signs of going past $7,000 and going back to its winning ways. Earlier today, the King of Crypto was trading at $7,178 but has since dropped down to $6,765 at the moment of writing this. Ethereum (ETH)  had also shown some signs of recovery by trading at $429 only to drop to $395 at the moment of writing this. Ripple (XRP) exhibited a similar pattern rising to levels of $0.52 in some exchanges, then dropping to $0.48. Litecoin (LTC) was not left behind and had earlier peaked at $122 only to drop to current levels of $114.

These patterns might worry a few seasoned traders who are wondering if the total market cap of the Crypto-verse will drop to below the much dreaded levels of $250 Billion.

But one seasoned Stock market strategist with over 25 years in the business and who is now knee deep in Cryptocurrencies, believes that this period of uncertainty will be brief. The Stock market strategist is no other than Thomas J. Lee, CFA and co-founder of Fundstrat: a company that defines itself as an an independent research boutique. Fundstrat provides market strategy and sector research to its clients in a bid to provide practical road-maps and insights with respect to investing.

According to Lee, the American tax season ends on April 15th every year. What then proceeds is that many Americans receive their tax returns from the American IRS (Internal Revenue Service). The most natural thing Americans do with their refunds is they buy new cars or new electronics. But in very many cases, they invest their money. Traditional forms of investments are the usual mortgage payments, saving for your kids college tuition or even buying some traditional securities.

However, with the ever exciting world of Crypto-currency, a good portion of that money will be invested in popular coins and ICOs and hence boosting the total market cap to safe levels of above $250 Billion.

Another theory Lee postulates, is that many Crypto traders sold off their Crypto earlier in the year as soon as the IRS started announcements of taxing crypto trading profits. This is a very plausible theory for the IRS demands came at a time when crypto trading was at its peak and BTC was around $19,000 and soaring above the Stratosphere.

Lee is quoted as saying:

“Selling pressure for Bitcoin should be alleviated after April 15th…”

This is less than 6 days away. Let as wait and see if Thomas Lee’s predictions are correct. He still maintains that BTC will be $25,000 by December and $91,000 by 2020.

[Photo source, fundstrat.com]

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Bitcoin Will Likely Hit February Lows Before Bouncing Back, Says Wall Street Strategist Tom Lee

Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder and the only major Wall Street strategist to cover bitcoin, Tom Lee, recently weighed in on bitcoin’s current situation. Per the analyst, the cryptocurrency could hit its February low of $5,900 before bouncing back again.

At press time, bitcoin is currently trading at $8,149 after falling from its mid-December all-time high of over $19,000. Per Fundstrat’s analysts, the cryptocurrency may fall another 30 percent on negative headlines. The firm’s analysts, including Robert Sluymer and Tom Lee, wrote:

“When sentiment is this weak, the market is increasingly ’fire, ready, aim’ — meaning, any headline today is likely to trigger selling.”

Bitcoin recently failed to cross the $12,000 mark, and is now once again sinking. Bitcoin bull Tom Lee claims the cryptocurrency broke below support at $9,325, and at $8,370. The cryptocurrency’s next support is reportedly at $7,535, followed by its February lows.

Recent negative headlines involve Google banning cryptocurrency-related ads in June. These helped bitcoin’s bears prevail, as the search giant’s move follows a similar one made by social media titan Facebook.

Fundstrat sees bullish signs

Despite the negative headlines, Fundstrat also sees bullish signs. Bitcoin is currently trading at the break-even cost of mining, based on a model made by Sam Doctor and Ken Xuan, data scientists at the firm.

Back in 2015, the pioneer cryptocurrency bottomed when it was at the same multiple relative to mining costs, and peaked in 2013 at about 21 times the cost of mining. Additionally, Fundstrat analysts note that March is historically the worst month for the cryptocurrency market. It was only positive once in the last seven years.

April, on the other hand, is the strongest month for the market. In the last seven years, it saw bitcoin rise five times. Despite the potential fall in bitcoin’s price, Tom Lee maintained his midyear target of $20,000. He further sees bitcoin reach $25,000 by the end of the year.

Tom Lee has also recently created the “Bitcoin Misery Index” (BMI). The index ranges from 0 to 100, and signals a time to buy when it falls below 27. It’s currently at 18.8, after taking into account factors like the number of winning trades out of the total and the cryptocurrency’s volatility.