Ethereum is still inside a symmetrical triangle formation as it formed another lower high when it bounced from the $300 resistance. Price now seems to be aiming for the bottom of the triangle around $280 and the moving averages.
The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. This suggests that support is more likely to hold than to break, possibly leading to yet another move to the top.
However, RSI is heading lower so ethereum might follow suit while sellers have the upper hand. Stochastic is also pointing down to reflect the presence of selling pressure. If bears are strong enough, they could push for a break of support and a downtrend that’s the same size as the triangle.
But when both oscillators reach oversold conditions and turn back up by then, buying pressure could return and lead to another test or even a break past the top.
The recent tweet by Elon Musk on how he wants ethereum “even if it’s a scam” is being blamed for the drop in price, although it’s tough to pinpoint which exact catalyst allowed price to turn from $300. After all, it could simply be profit-taking once more at the key psychological mark and a confirmation of a short-term double top right there.
In more upbeat reports, ethereum has been integrated by Yahoo Finance into its platform for trading. Some say that this marks an important step in crypto adoption, especially for retail investors, but others think that this could increase downside pressure.
In the meantime cryptocurrencies could also wait for clues on market sentiment when it comes to establishing longer-term direction. Risk appetite on account of trade developments is currently supporting stocks and commodities, possibly weighing on demand for ethereum and its peers.
Ethereum broke below the bottom of its symmetrical triangle consolidation on the 1-hour chart to signal that bearish moves are in the cards. Price might be due for a pullback to the broken support, which is close to a new descending trend line forming.
Applying the Fibonacci retracement tool on the latest swing high and low shows that the 61.8% level lines up with the trend line and area of interest near $290. This might be the line in the sand for a pullback on this selloff, as a move beyond the $300 mark could signal that bulls are charging again.
The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. In other words, there’s still a chance for the uptrend to continue. At the same time, RSI is indicating oversold conditions and turning higher could bring buyers back in. Stochastic has reached oversold territory to reflect exhaustion among sellers and a possible takeover by bulls.
In that case, the correction could go on for a while, and the Fib levels might be where sellers are waiting. The 38.2% level is at $282.07 and the 50% level is at $286.32.
Cryptocurrencies are in the red once more as the pickup in stocks and commodities seems to have drawn traders back to traditional markets. This improvement in sentiment in global financial markets is being attributed to the upcoming trade talks between the US and China this week, with many hoping that the next set of tariffs could be avoided.
It’s important to note, however, that these will just be low-level talks and there won’t likely be any decisions made for now. This could lead to a return in risk aversion that tends to prop up cryptocurrencies.
Another factor worth watching is the turmoil in Turkey as escalation could bring in capital controls that tend to favor bitcoin as well.