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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Will Sellers Return Here?

Bitcoin broke higher from its short-term consolidation but is still in correction mode.

Bitcoin is still in a weak spot even as it broke to the upside of a short-term consolidation pattern. Price is currently testing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level on the 1-hour chart, and this lines up with a descending trend line so far this month.

Apart from that, the resistance area coincides with the 50 SMA dynamic inflection point. The 100 SMA is still below the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside or that the selloff is more likely to resume than to reverse.

Also, the gap between the moving averages is slowly widening to reflect stronger selling pressure. The 100 SMA is just above the highest Fib, adding an extra layer of resistance in the event of a break higher.

RSI is heading higher but is dipping into overbought territory to signal exhaustion among buyers. Turning lower could bring sellers back in and lead to a slide back to the swing low or lower. Similarly stochastic is on the move up but might be ready to head back down from overbought levels soon.

Bitcoin got a bit of a lift early this week on news that South Korean exchange UPBit has been cleared after investigations. This could be a positive update that the market badly needs after erasing most of its earlier gains.

Recall that institutional interest lifted prices earlier in July but a slew of negative commentary and an outage in HitBTC forced these gains to be returned. It didn’t help that South Korean officials are reportedly looking into removing tax breaks from crypto exchanges and possibly on transactions down the line.

Reports that Starbucks isn’t really accepting bitcoin as payments for coffee also dragged on investor sentiment, although this simply came as a clarification from news that it is teaming up with ICE to launch digital platform Bakkt.


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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Heads Up for a Breakout!

Bitcoin has formed lower highs and higher lows to create a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern on its short-term charts. Price is approaching the peak of the formation to suggest that a breakout is due soon.

But which direction will it go? The moving averages barely offer strong clues as the technical indicators are simply oscillating to reflect current consolidation. Looking at the earlier trend suggests some bullish momentum may still be present and could be enough to spur continuation past the $8,300 resistance.

The chart pattern spans $7,700 to around $8,500 so the resulting climb could be of the same height. Similarly a break below support at $8,100 could signal a selloff of the same size.

RSI appears to be on the move up but is hovering around the middle of its range. Stochastic is also climbing on this time frame, so bitcoin could follow suit as buyers stay in control. Turning lower from overbought levels, however, could bring sellers back in.

Bitcoin has had a nice solid run in the earlier part of the previous week, boosted by institutional interest and anticipation for bitcoin ETFs. However, the SEC delayed its decision on some and rejected the application from the Winklevoss twins again.

With that, investors are pausing to reevaluate their outlook for the industry, likely waiting for more clues on developments. Another set of positive updates could be enough to revive industry optimism and draw more buyers in while security issues or regulatory threats could lead to profit-taking off the recent rallies.

The US dollar also faces a couple of major catalysts this week, namely the FOMC decision and the NFP report. Hawkish views supported by upbeat data could be strongly bullish for the US currency, which might put some weight on other asset classes like stocks and bitcoin.


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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Bears Defending Area of Interest

Bitcoin has formed lower highs and lower lows on its daily time frame to create a descending channel pattern. Bears appear to be waiting at the top of the channel around the $8,000 level, which lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

This also coincides with the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point, which adds to its strength as a ceiling. A continuation of the downtrend from here could lead to a test of the channel bottom or the swing low around $5,800.

The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, the downtrend is more likely to resume than to reverse.

RSI is also indicating overbought conditions and turning lower could bring more selling pressure in. Similarly stochastic is in the overbought area to signal that buyers are feeling exhausted and ready to let sellers take over.

Still, a break past these resistance levels could be enough to confirm that bulls have the upper hand and could push bitcoin further north. The next upside target from there could be at the swing high near the $10,000 major psychological level.

Bitcoin has had a good run for the past few days, buoyed by the pickup in institutional interest and a large degree of FOMO among market participants. Traders have also welcomed regulatory updates positively, seeing this as a chance to increase security in the industry.

However, catalysts propping price further up appear to be running out and the attention has shifted back to stocks and commodities thanks to easing trade tensions. US President Trump and EC President Juncker recently made a deal to hold off further tariffs while trade negotiations are ongoing, leading to a huge relief rally in traditional markets.

Traders might also be booking profits at current levels as this is an area of interest after all. It’s not surprising to see market watchers extra cautious about locking gains quickly at key levels for fear of another sharp drop happening.