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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Are Bulls Back on Their Feet?

Bitcoin is creating a new ascending channel on its 1-hour time frame as it formed higher lows and higher highs since last week. Price is bouncing off support and may be aiming for the upside targets marked by the Fibonacci extension tool.

Price is already testing the 50% level at the mid-channel area of interest and if this keeps gains in check, another move to the channel bottom could be seen. Sustained bullish momentum could take bitcoin up to the 61.8% level near the $3,700 mark or the full extension at $3,847 that’s just past the channel top.

The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA, though, so the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, resistance is more likely to hold than to break or the downtrend is more likely to resume. Then again, the gap between the moving averages is narrowing to signal weakening selling pressure. A bullish crossover could draw more buyers in and even pave the way for a break past the channel resistance.

RSI is heading south after recently hitting the overbought zone, though, indicating that sellers are returning while buyers take a break. Stochastic is also moving lower so bitcoin could follow suit while bears have the upper hand. This oscillator is closing in on the oversold region, which suggests that sellers might start to feel exhausted soon.

Bitcoin bull Mike Novogratz insists that bitcoin won’t fall to the $80 level despite signs that the bear market could persist. In an interview with Bloomberg, he reiterated that bitcoin will become digital gold and that revolutions don’t happen overnight.

Meanwhile, Forbes analyst Clem Chambers shared a less upbeat view, warning that bitcoin could still fall to $2,500 in due time. He concluded:

“The end of this crash will look awful, the ends of crashes always do. That is yet to come but the next leg could be here.”

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Bullish Divergence & Potential Targets

Bitcoin is still in selloff mode but there are more signs of bullish exhaustion on the daily time frame. For one, RSI and stochastic have indicated oversold conditions and are starting to turn higher to reflect the return of bullish pressure.

To top it off, RSI has formed higher lows while bitcoin price made lower lows to hint that a rally may be in the works. Stochastic has also shown higher lows since the third week of November while price had lower lows then.

If a big bounce takes place, price could make it up to the area of interest around the falling trend line connecting the highs since August or the former support around the $6,000 handle. The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA, though, so the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, the downtrend is still more likely to resume than to reverse.

Also, the gap between the moving averages is widening to reflect increased bearish momentum. The area of interest or potential resistance is also between these moving averages, which could serve as dynamic inflection points.

Even with the seemingly unstoppable slide in bitcoin, big names in the industry are holding on to their optimistic expectations. For CEO of cryptocurrency merchant bank Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz, bitcoin is “digital gold” and will survive in the long run:

“I do believe Bitcoin is going to be digital gold. That means it’s the only one of the coins out there that gets to be a legal pyramid scheme — just like gold is.”

He further pointed out that revolutions don’t happen overnight, explaining:

“All the gold ever mined in the history of the world fits in an Olympic-size swimming pool. You’re out of your mind to think that pool’s worth $8 trillion. But it is because we say it is.”

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Bears Wrestle for Control

Bitcoin is trending lower inside a descending channel and appears to have already found a ceiling at the mid-channel area of interest. If sellers return at this point, the Fib extension tool on the pullback shows the next potential downside targets.

The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, the selloff is more likely to resume than to reverse. In addition, the 100 SMA recently held as resistance on the latest bounce and might continue to keep gains in check.

From here, bitcoin could slump back to the 38.2% Fib next or the 50% level closer to the swing low at $3,270. Stronger selling pressure could take it to the 61.8% level near the channel bottom at $3,150 or the 78.6% extension at the $3,000 major psychological level. The full extension is located at the $2,731 mark.

RSI appears to be heading lower to signal the presence of bearish momentum but is currently hesitating at middle ground, suggesting that there’s a chance buyers could return and push for a larger pullback to the channel top at $4,000. Stochastic is heading south also, so bitcoin might follow suit while sellers have the upper hand.

Analysts are worried that the inability of bitcoin to bust through nearby ceilings signals that the bear market is far from over. After all sellers are piling on at key levels and buyers are also quick to book profits off bounces, keeping the downtrend intact.

Traders continue to hold out for actual developments in the industry before reestablishing any large positions. Some still believe that a surge in institutional investment is due early next year and might be enough to revive volumes and price gains. Changpeng Zhao, chief executive of major global bitcoin and cryptocurrency exchange Binance, thinks Amazon could be the catalyst for the next bull run.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC/USD Accumulating as VanEck Subsidiary Work on “Transparency”

Latest Bitcoin News

Of course, price is not the only metric of interest as far as Bitcoin is concerned. Adoption rate and infrastructure development is of interest. Though the coin is meant to by-pass third parties as regulators, we cannot discount the role of regulators and their constant talk of investor protection.

Other jurisdictions might be open but the community is closely watching if the US SEC shall proceed and approve the much-anticipated Bitcoin ETF come Feb 27, 2019. That’s two and a half months from now and before then, bears seem to have an upper hand especially when we take a top-down approach.

Read: BTCC Co-Founder Lee Hints At $333,000 Bitcoin (BTC) Prediction For 2021

From the look of things, we can only guess the route that SEC might take and considering more banks are showing their interest in the space, we can only speculate that they might just give the VanEck Bitcoin ETF a pass.

Earlier, the SEC cited transparency saying the market was prone for manipulations and various stakeholders are now working on ensuring complete openness. A few days ago, a Frankfurt based company with relations to VanEck did launch MVIS Bitcoin US OTC Spot Index (MVBTCO).

Also Read: Bitcoin Price Prediction Gone Wrong: $1M Options Call To Be Purged

The index core objective is to promote transparency and to that end it draws its price feeds from Cumberland, Circle Trade and Genesis Trading. Most of the time institutions trade through liquid OTC firms and this index is a reliable benchmark for their investment.

BTC/USD Price Analysis

BTC/USD Price Analysis

There are hints of BTC demand in lower time frames and in the last day, BTC/USD is up 1.7 percent. This is modest to say the least and that means bears are still in control. On a weekly basis, BTC/USD is down 15 percent but considering events of the last few days, bears appear to be slowing down and range bound in lower time frames. Clear floors are at $3280.

Trend: Bearish, Momentum Fading

Aside from the negative sloping trend line connecting highs of the last few weeks, losses of the last few weeks are a reliable indicator of trend. But, even as bears threaten to drive prices lower, BTC demand is increasing in lower time frames. In the 4HR chart, prices are ranging within a tight $500 range with clear resistance and support at $3,800 and $3,280.

Volumes: Bullish, Increasing

What we have in this time frames are a series of higher highs with floors at $3,280 as BTC/USD range horizontally. Unless otherwise there are gains above $3,800 resistance, bears are in control but we are rooting for bulls thanks to standout bull bars of the last two days. Dec 7–22k versus 11k average by 1900 HRs, Dec 8—17k versus 8k 2300 HRs bar and Dec 9—7k versus 5k average bull bars are of interest as far as BTC/USD price analysis is concerned.  Notice that even from an effort versus result point of view, prices are still trending inside Dec 8 bull bar. For buyers to be in charge, then bulls must thrust prices above $3,810. Thereafter in a bull breakout trade, traders can buy on dips or at spot with first targets at $4,500 with stops at Dec 9 lows at around $3,500.

Candlestick Formation: Breakout Trade, Range

Clearly, BTC/USD is within a bear breakout trade but ranging as aforementioned. But, for bulls to be in charge then we must see high volumes gains printing above Nov lows of $3,800. This move will invalidate the bear breakout pattern of Dec 6. However, if prices fail to recover printing below Dec 9 lows then we shall have a retest and odds are BTC might test $3,280—or lower by the end of the week.

Conclusion

From candlestick arrangement, bulls might recover above $3,800. As such, our BTC/USD trade plan will be as follows:

Buy Trigger: $3,800—Dec 8 Highs

Stops: $3,500—Dec 9 Lows

First Targets: $4,500

All Charts courtesy of Trading View.

This is not Investment Advice. Do you own Research.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Some Bullish Hints

Bitcoin is still trending lower inside a descending channel on the 1-hour chart but is currently testing the resistance to attempt another break. However this lines up with an area of interest or former support that might now hold as a ceiling.

This level happens to line up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level around $3,600 so there may be some selling pressure at this level. A break above it could also hit a roadblock at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level or the $3,700 area. This also happens to coincide with the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point.

The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, the downtrend is more likely to resume than to reverse. Then again, the gap between the two moving averages is narrowing to reflect slower selling pressure and hint at a potential bullish crossover. Also, bitcoin has climbed above the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point to signal that bullish momentum is picking up.

RSI has reached the overbought zone and started to turn lower, indicating a pickup in selling momentum. Stochastic is also heading south to indicate that bears have the upper hand and could push price to the swing low at the $3,225 area or to the channel bottom closer to $3,000.

On the flip side, a strong recovery among buyers could spur a move to the swing high around $4,050 and a break above this could confirm that a reversal from the downtrend is underway.

Bitcoin has had a lot to deal with in the past weeks as it attempts to shake off the FUD that is currently weighing on prices. Although the recent run has been positive, bulls have been quick to book profits off bounces for fear of another leg lower in prices.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Bears Push for Wedge Break

Bitcoin broke below its falling wedge consolidation pattern to signal that bearish momentum is picking up. However, price seems to be stalling at the $3,300 level so a pullback to the broken areas of interest may be in order.

Applying the Fib retracement tool on the latest swing high and low shows that the 50% level lines up with the broken wedge support which might be enough to keep gains in check on a correction. The 61.8% Fib is back inside the wedge but might still serve as resistance since it’s close to the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point.

On the subject of moving averages, the 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, the selloff is more likely to resume than to reverse. In addition, the gap between the moving averages is widening to reflect increased selling momentum.

RSI is already indicating oversold conditions, though, and turning higher could show that buyers might be ready to take over. Stochastic is heading south but is also in the oversold region to signal that sellers are feeling exhausted.

Bitcoin seems to have gotten another blow from the SEC announcement to once again delay their ruling on the bitcoin ETF. Although there were already hints earlier from SEC Chairperson Clayton that they’re not likely to approve the proposed rule change anytime soon, the actual decision still seemed to inspire a wave of selling.

However, it’s also important to note that this decision comes after a meeting with representatives from VanEck and SolidX on how ETFs on gold and other commodities may be comparable to the one they’re proposing on bitcoin. In fact, the companies pointed out that bitcoin ETFs may be less prone to market manipulation, so the decision to delay instead of completely reject might prove to be a positive development.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Bears Push for Wedge Break

Bitcoin broke below its falling wedge consolidation pattern to signal that bearish momentum is picking up. However, price seems to be stalling at the $3,300 level so a pullback to the broken areas of interest may be in order.

Applying the Fib retracement tool on the latest swing high and low shows that the 50% level lines up with the broken wedge support which might be enough to keep gains in check on a correction. The 61.8% Fib is back inside the wedge but might still serve as resistance since it’s close to the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point.

On the subject of moving averages, the 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, the selloff is more likely to resume than to reverse. In addition, the gap between the moving averages is widening to reflect increased selling momentum.

RSI is already indicating oversold conditions, though, and turning higher could show that buyers might be ready to take over. Stochastic is heading south but is also in the oversold region to signal that sellers are feeling exhausted.

Bitcoin seems to have gotten another blow from the SEC announcement to once again delay their ruling on the bitcoin ETF. Although there were already hints earlier from SEC Chairperson Clayton that they’re not likely to approve the proposed rule change anytime soon, the actual decision still seemed to inspire a wave of selling.

However, it’s also important to note that this decision comes after a meeting with representatives from VanEck and SolidX on how ETFs on gold and other commodities may be comparable to the one they’re proposing on bitcoin. In fact, the companies pointed out that bitcoin ETFs may be less prone to market manipulation, so the decision to delay instead of completely reject might prove to be a positive development.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Short-Term Falling Wedge Pattern

Another consolidation pattern can be spotted on bitcoin as price is moving inside a falling wedge on its short-term chart. Price is down to support and might be due for yet another bounce to the top around $3,800.

The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA to signal that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, the selloff is more likely to resume than to reverse or support is more likely to break than to hold. In that case, bitcoin could slide by the same height as the wedge, which spans $4,300 to $3,600.

In addition, the gap between the moving averages is widening to reflect stronger selling pressure. The 100 SMA is just below the wedge top to add another layer of resistance while the 200 SMA is in line with the $4,000 major psychological resistance.

RSI is starting to pull up after indicating oversold conditions, though, so there’s a chance that buyers might still return and prop bitcoin higher. Stochastic has some room to head lower still, so sellers could stay in play until oversold conditions are met. A pickup in bullish pressure could lead to a test of the top or an attempt to break higher.

However, bitcoin still seems to be reeling from the earlier declines as analysts are pushing back expectations for when this digital asset could recover. Many say that it could take months before the recent slide is unwound, even with a pickup in institutional investment. Besides, there are still lingering doubts that banks and funds could put funds in the industry in this bear market.

On the flip side, there are those who maintain bullish forecasts that might be reached by the end of the following year. It would take an actual pickup in volumes and activity buoyed by institutional investments before bitcoin has any hope for a recovery.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Short-Term Falling Wedge Pattern

Another consolidation pattern can be spotted on bitcoin as price is moving inside a falling wedge on its short-term chart. Price is down to support and might be due for yet another bounce to the top around $3,800.

The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA to signal that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, the selloff is more likely to resume than to reverse or support is more likely to break than to hold. In that case, bitcoin could slide by the same height as the wedge, which spans $4,300 to $3,600.

In addition, the gap between the moving averages is widening to reflect stronger selling pressure. The 100 SMA is just below the wedge top to add another layer of resistance while the 200 SMA is in line with the $4,000 major psychological resistance.

RSI is starting to pull up after indicating oversold conditions, though, so there’s a chance that buyers might still return and prop bitcoin higher. Stochastic has some room to head lower still, so sellers could stay in play until oversold conditions are met. A pickup in bullish pressure could lead to a test of the top or an attempt to break higher.

However, bitcoin still seems to be reeling from the earlier declines as analysts are pushing back expectations for when this digital asset could recover. Many say that it could take months before the recent slide is unwound, even with a pickup in institutional investment. Besides, there are still lingering doubts that banks and funds could put funds in the industry in this bear market.

On the flip side, there are those who maintain bullish forecasts that might be reached by the end of the following year. It would take an actual pickup in volumes and activity buoyed by institutional investments before bitcoin has any hope for a recovery.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: One More Triangle Bottom

Bitcoin made a triangle breakdown earlier on but seems to be finding some support at a larger triangle bottom. Price bounced off the $3,800 area but is making another test and might be attempting another break.

The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, support is more likely to break than to hold. In that case, bitcoin could slide by the same height as this chart formation, which spans $3,500 to $4,600.

RSI is still heading lower to reflect the presence of bearish pressure. However, the oscillator is nearing the oversold region to reflect exhaustion. Turning higher could confirm that buyers are ready to return and might push for a move back to the triangle top at $4,100. Similarly stochastic is dipping into the oversold region but has yet to turn higher to signal a return in bullish pressure.

More and more mainstream coverage on the recent slump in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is piling on the FUD that’s currently weighing on prices. Although the improvement in sentiment last week from revived expectations on institutional investment propped bitcoin higher, it seems that traders are hoping to get actual developments before sustaining any rallies.

Still, a lot of analysts are holding on to their bullish bets and this may be why bulls continue to defend nearby support levels. Some expect bitcoin to make a strong rebound before the end of 2019 while some believe that it could take place as early as Q1 2019.

According to a recently published A.T. Kearney report:

“By the end of 2019, Bitcoin will reclaim nearly two-thirds of the crypto-market capitalization as altcoins lose their luster because of growing risk aversion among cryptocurrency investors. More broadly financial regulators will soften their stance towards the sector.”

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