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So Much for $6000 Resistance, Bitcoin Price Dominance Reaches Sixteen Month High

Bitcoin BTC Price 7000 2019

After a week of bullish price movement, U.S.-based investors awoke May 11 to the sight of Bitcoin up 8 percent, approaching a relative high of $7000.

Despite April’s bullish turn in the crypto markets, analysts were calling for substantial resistance in BTC surmounting $6000. In November 2018 the price of Bitcoin plummeted from the market uncertainty of the BCH contentious hard fork and general investor fatigue. Retail investors fled the crypto markets in droves, cashing out at a loss. The remaining investors were thought to pose tough resistance for Bitcoin eclipsing $6000, marking the point where traders could recoup on losses incurred in the sudden plummet.

Instead, the price of Bitcoin has smashed the $6K mark and continued steadily towards $7000. Some analysts are calling for even greater price gains ahead, with the bullish sentiment and overwhelming effect of FOMO at a near-high not seen since 2017’s epic price rally. Others are pointing to the coin in danger of being overbought, after more than doubling in price since the start of the year and generating a near-continuous upward climb since the beginning of April.

Facebook, for what it’s worth, has played a role in the renewed interest in the crypto markets. While Bitcoin had likely reached a point of being oversold, falling close to 90 percent from it’s all-time high, the social media goliath has injected confidence and renewed interest in the industry. Prior to 2019’s string of adoption for cryptocurrency, which includes Wall Street bank J.P. Morgan Chase, retail giant Rakuten and Facebook, the industry was in danger of suffering from the backlash of 2018’s ‘crypto winter.’ Developers and crypto enthusiasts may have remained bullish on the outlook for the technology, but outside investors remain wary.

Facebook’s show of confidence in digital currencies has brought the interest of both institutional and retail investors, giving crypto a base that extends beyond 2017’s constant news headline of Bitcoin as an empty “get rich quick scheme.” Investors are finding more reason to be bullish on the long-term prospect of cryptocurrency, as opposed to cashing out at the first sign of market downturn. The Facebook Coin may eventually come to compete with BTC, as some analysts have predicted, but the more likely situation is synergistic for the price of Bitcoin due to increased exposure.

Compared to the price rally of 2017, this year’s bullish turn for cryptocurrency could receive a substantial boost from the foundation of adoption that has been slowly built over the last sixteenth months. Investors are responding to the belief that Bitcoin will continue to lead cryptocurrency, with the number one coin by market capitalization also achieving an increase in market dominance. BTC’s >58 percent market dominance is at its highest point in sixteenth months, dating back to the last bull rally of December 2017.

Altcoins might be making a general resurgence on the day, but investors are clearly putting their confidence in BTC as the coin that will continue to lead throughout the rest of the year.

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Bitcoin at $6000 Could Prove Pivotal for Institutional Investors

Bitcoin Institutional Investors 2019

As the crypto markets make a slight recovery following their plummet earlier in the week, all eyes turn to the continued price gains of Bitcoin. Since the start of the year, BItcoin has posted more than 50 percent in gains, with the $6000 price mark becoming the next significant hurdle for the currency. Average investors may consider the psychological value of BTC at $6000, but institutional investors and their behavior will be the true indicators of market direction moving forward in 2019.

Tom Lee, Fundstrat cryptocurrency analyst and regular Bitcoin commentator, has pegged current market sentiment for BTC at its highest point in his Bitcoin Misery Index (BMI), a value not yet seen under bearish conditions. While Lee give some hope that having an elevated BMI in the midst of a bear market may give indication that the bulls are in for a turn, he also cautions that a rising BMI has historically correlated with a sudden downturn in pricing.

His prediction may have come true last week, as the price of Bitcoin crashed from $5400 to $5000, with the majority of the crytpo markets experiencing an acute retraction in price. However, most of the sudden price movement was brought about by the actions of the New York Attorney General’s office, who issued a court filing accusing Bitfinex and Tether of market manipulation. In the report, the New York AG’s office claimed that Bitfinex was in danger of insolvency, and used $850 million worth of Tether funds to cover the losses–funds that are supposed to be backing the value of USDT 1:1 with U.S. dollars.

The market uncertainty generated by the report, in addition to confusion surrounding Bitfinex user funds, led to a flash crash in the Bitcoin and altcoin markets. While BTC has steadily recovered to $5300 throughout the weekend, investors are still unsure which was the market will move entering the fifth month of the year. More than any other metric, the $6000 mark for BTC could prove a severe litmus test for the commitment of institutional investors.

Previous reports by analytics firm Adamant Capital report that the majority of retail investors, at long-last, fled the bear market of cryptocurrency in November 2018 following the collapse of BTC pricing. Since that time, the valuation of Bitcoin has seen a drop in price volatility, owing to the decreased actions of retail traders.

At the beginning of April a series of coordinated Bitcoin buys across multiple exchanges, totaling over 20,000 BTC, kicked off the present price rally which has taken Bitcoin to highest valuation in six months. While no single trader has come forth to claim responsibility for the transactions, analysts are owing the behavior to institutional investors–rather than crypto whales. The coordinated actions of a well-capitalized trader(s), who sunk nearly $100 million in BTC, means that the market is currently operating at the behest of institutional investors. And some analysts have pointed out, these large-capital investors could be riding short-term sentiment.

Considering the bullish turn in crypto market prices ignited from a series of transactions, it could be that these traders are waiting for the $6000 mark to take action again. For one, Tom Lee’s BMI measures market sentiment for Bitcoin, with that value reaching its highest point since 2017. Retail investors are looking at Bitcoin prices favorably, for now, but that could change with the looming hurdle of BTC at $6000. BItcoin was hovering around $6000 before its crash in November 2018, meaning a number of investors could be looking to recoup on losses at that threshold.

If this proves to be the case, the institutional investors which catalyzed the most recent bullish run for BTC could look to make a killing in the short-term, playing off the change in market sentiment that could accompany steep BTC resistance at $6000.

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Analyst: Bitcoin Moving Average Points to More Gains Ahead

Bitcoin BTC 200 Day Moving Average

While the crypto markets are showing slight contraction, with Bitcoin holding trading above $5000 in the hope for renewed price action, several analysts are pointing to the 200-day moving average as a bullish indicator.

The most recent bull run for Bitcoin and the larger cryptocurrency marketplace gave BTC its best day of trading since the massive valuation increases seen during the final month of 2017. After a strong weekend of growth, BTC price shot to $4700 on April 1, and continued to gain an additional 20 percent on April 2 to take the currency above $5000. The next two days brought about a consolidation in trading, with the price of BTC fluctuating around the $5k as both bullish and bearish investors weigh in on establishing a new floor or ceiling for the coin.

However, the market price for BTC represents a substantial increase over prices experienced earlier in the year, when Bitcoin appeared to be destined for $3000 or lower. The recent price rally has given a strong indicator to analysts that the top cryptocurrency by market capitalization likely found its bottom at $3000, with the next movement representing a broader trend in how the coin will proceed into the remainder of the year.

New York-based Fundstrat Global Advisors finds that Bitcoin could be about to extend into a 200 percent price surge, making the currency worth $13,500 if current indicators hold true. According to the research firm, Bitcoin closed above its 200-day moving average on April 2nd for the first time in more than a year, mostly due to the massive price rally that initiated the price kick-off.

In a note to clients, Fundstrat explained that closing above the 200-day moving average has been a historically bullish indicator for BTC, with a win-ratio of 80 percent compared to that of 36 percent when the coin trades below,

“Based on bitcoin’s trading history, a move above the 200-day moving average for bitcoin is meaningful statistically. When bitcoin is above its 200-day moving average its win-ratio is 80% compared to a mere 36% when it is below its 200-day.”

Fundstrat continued that trading above the 200-day moving average significantly increases six-month forward returns, which average 193 percent compared to a “measly 10% when below its 200-day moving average–hence, being above the 200-day moving average is a big deal.”

While investors, both bullish and bearish, attempt to sort through what the most recent price rally means for the valuation of Bitcoin, most community members are looking at market conditions differently than they did in 2017. Compared to that time, cryptocurrency adoption has grown substantially, with major companies such as Facebook and J.P. Morgan Chase now providing a new face of confidence for the industry.

The fear that cryptocurrency may once again find itself over-extended, with coin prices vastly outweighing the actual valuation and impact of the technology has been dwindling since the start of the year. Already industry hopefuls and cryptocurrency enthusiasts are finding reasons to own crypto outside of what they can accomplish through price speculation.

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Report: Bitcoin Wallet Activity Spiked Week Before Bull Run

Bitcoin Wallet Activity Price Rally 2019

Despite analysts scrambling to find the reason behind Bitcoin’s most recent price rally, during which the currency increased 25 percent in the span of days, one firm is pointing to wallet activity as a sign of increased adoption.

According to market intelligence firm Flipside Crypto, digital wallet activity for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies saw a spike in activity over the previous two weeks. The wallet activity gives some indication in an uptick of user activity and industry adoption, even before the most recent bullish turn in valuation.

Historically, around 40 to 50 percent of circulating Bitcoin has been held in wallets that are inactive for greater than a month, likely due to the bulk of investors keeping their coins on exchanges. However, Flipside Crypto reports that figure falling to only 10 percent since March 15, showing a significant increase in user activity over the last several weeks.

“If you are a crypto optimist, that’s good news,” Eric Stone, co-founder of Flipside, told Bloomberg. “There are more people warming up to the idea of buying Bitcoin.”

Stone also reports that the wallet activity and price movement for the most recent rally has been less attributable to the activity of whales. Instead, the sharp increase in wallet activity from accounts that have typically been dormant indicates a broad-based “waking up” of many smaller investors. Cryptocurrency investors, likely those who have remained inactive or price-stricken during 2018’s ongoing bear market, are now taking greater interest in market price movement.

While the previous 12 months may be referred to as a “crypto winter” for the marketplace, this week’s exponential price rally and data surrounding wallet activity contributes to a more holistically driven valuation, as opposed to the action of whales. Stone points out that the plummeting price of BTC in November 2018, when Bitcoin fell 40 percent, was the result of a few whale investors shifting positions. More price movement has given a much different indication, with Flipside Chief Executive Officer Dave Balter telling Bloomberg,

“We see this move much more valid than a few whale moves in October. This probably signifies a change in perception or confidence in this asset class.”

Some analysts have pointed to a massive BTC buy spread across several exchanges as being the primary catalyst for Bitcoin’s price movement. Community members have interpreted this as indication of institutional investors at long last entering the market of cryptocurrency, likely ahead of increased mainstream adoption building throughout 2019.

With the possibility of a Facebook Coin looming over the industry’s head, it is clear that cryptocurrency has turned a corner in terms of developing real world interest. While crypto, overall, may still represent a niche digital asset class, the boom that could follow major developments such as Facebook are too enticing for large capital investors to pass up.

Brian Kelly, speaking yesterday with CNBC, called for Bitcoin to continue to $6000 off the most recent price rally, and predicted that the market as a whole had found its bottom as coin prices have continued to rise throughout most of 2019.

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Analyst: Brexit No-Deal Will Favor Price of Bitcoin (BTC)

Brexit No-Deal Bitcoin BTC Price

Theresa May and the U.K. parliament are 9 days away from deciding upon the fate of the country in regards to Brexit, a decision that could have widespread and impactful results for the price of Bitcoin.

According to Jefferson Nunn, analyst and contributing author to Forbes, a no-deal Brexit decision will ultimately have the largest effect on Bitcoin. In terms of how the U.K. can handle its withdrawal from the European Union, a no-deal decision would result in the immediate withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU, with no negotiations in place to determine what that relationship would be like moving forward. Such a decision would lead to a massive disconnect in border flow between the UK and its European counterparts, leading to a disruption in trade and the ease of which people are currently able to travel.

If a no-deal goes through, Nunn predicts that the U.K. will enter a hyper-inflationary market, conditions that cryptocurrency has typically thrived under (look no further than the adoption of crypto in Venezuela and Argentina). Nunn continues,

“Unemployment will rise, the already strained UK central bank will be forced to “print cash” and Bitcoin will rise against the Pound.”

In addition to raising the value of Bitcoin against the British pound, Nunn finds it likely that cryptocurrency will find a favorable exchange rate against the Euro. The U.K. ranks 5th in terms of world economies, contributing a significant portion to the economy of the European Union. Brexit would cause a dramatic shift in the economic output of the EU, including the interchange between member countries such as Germany with the United Kingdom going forward, thereby contributing to the Euro’s decline against BTC.

Nunn also cites the contribution of the most recent bull run for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency, which is now caught inexorably with the proceedings of Brexit. Fears over the state of both the British Pound and E.U. Euro have likely contributed to the sudden investment in BTC. In a bizarre twist of fate, cryptocurrency may prove to be more price stable in the coming months than the market uncertainty that is being imposed over the Brexit ordeal. Decisions made in the coming weeks will contribute further to the price change of Bitcoin, however the groundwork built for BTC pricing throughout 2019 is already significantly different than that of the previous year.

December 2017 brought about a bullish sentiment and exponential price increase for cryptocurrency that was driven primarily by FOMO and hyper-inflated investor expectation. To put simply: cryptocurrency was not ready for the flood of capital that entered the market at the end of 2017, with adoption lagging behind valuation. Predictably, market prices tumbled in the following months, leading many analysts to refer to 2018 as the “crypto winter.”

The first quarter of this year has painted a different story for cryptocurrency, with figureheads and companies pushing adoption and industry growth ahead of price speculation. Brexit could force Bitcoin prices higher as both individuals and firms alike look to the usability of cryptocurrency as a more attractive means of currency than the uncertainty of their fiat alternatives.

At the very least, the next several weeks should prove to be even more exciting for cryptocurrency, and set the stage for potential BTC breakout adoption if the Pound and Euro falter.

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Messari CEO: ‘Wealth Transfer’ Will Take Bitcoin (BTC) to $50,000

Bitcoin BTC Price Prediction Messari

As the crypto markets enter their second straight day of bullish price movement, with Bitcoin trading above $5000 for the first time since last year, a number of analysts are weighing in with their prediction for the future of crypto asset value.

Ryan Selkis, founder and CEO of the cryptocurrency research firm Messari believes that Bitcoin will continue to climb in the coming years, gaining over 1,000% to reach a valuation of $50,000. Specifically, Selkis cites the mass “wealth transfer” that is going to occur in the coming years, as the baby boomer generation gives way to millenials, both in terms of capital and wealth inheritance.

Selkis referred to this mass movement of wealth in a tweet published on Mar. 28, just days before Bitcoin took off in price. According to Selkis, millenials stand to inherit $30 trillion in wealth from their baby boomer generation parents, which presents a vast amount of capital that could influence cryptocurrency,

“There’s a $30 trillion “great wealth transfer” expected in the next 20+ years (millennials inheriting money from their parents).

If 1% of that goes into cryptocurrencies, crypto will be a multi-trillion dollar asset class.

That’s the conservative case for $50k+ bitcoin.”

Messari’s CEO refers to the $50,000 prediction for BTC as “conservative,” explaining that his numbers only assume a 1 percent investment by millennials in the money they will be inheriting from their parents. Selkis also assumes that millennial generations will have far greater interest for investing in digital assets and cryptocurrency, a stat-line that has been largely confirmed over the last year through various polling organizations.

Millennials, on average, are both more interested in cryptocurrency and invested in the industry of digital assets. While cryptocurrency has its appeal to a younger generation–more upside in terms of reward, despite the increased investment risk of highly volatile assets–education and lack of understanding tends to be a sticking point for the industry as a whole. The majority of polled investors, moreso in older generations, report lacking a basic understanding of Bitcoin, cryptocurrency and digital assets–a feature that could be hampering the investment potential more-so than just age differences.

Mati Greenspan, senior market analyst for cryptocurrency trading and social platform eToro, agreed with Selkis’s prediction that wealth transfer would benefit the market for Bitcoin,

“The current market cap of bitcoin is around $73 billion. If an additional $300 billion were to flow into bitcoin than it could easily increase the total market cap by 10 to 20 times the incoming capital.”

However, some analysts continue to remain skeptical on the state of cryptocurrency and Bitcoin, despite the growing adoption and valuation throughout 2019. While the entry of Facebook and J.P. Morgan Chase into cryptocurrency, via stablecoins, has been hailed as a positive movement for the industry, others see it as a way of circumventing established currencies. Bitcoin and other top cryptos may continue to see their market share decline if Facebook and mainstream companies develop their own coin projects, thereby giving their massive user bases little reason to invest in or use BTC.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Bullish Correction Needed?

Bitcoin bulls are putting up a fight and defending the nearby support around the $4,050 minor psychological level. This lines up with the mid-channel area of interest on the 1-hour time frame and the 38.2% Fib retracement level.

If this keeps holding as support, bitcoin could recover to the swing high around $4,170 or the channel top at $4,200. Stronger bullish momentum could even lead to a break above the channel resistance and a steeper climb. A deeper correction, on the other hand, could last until the 61.8% level closer to the channel bottom and the $4,000 major psychological mark.

This is also near the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point, which is below the shorter-term 100 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the upside. In other words, the climb is more likely to gain traction than to reverse, so buyers might just be waiting to hop in at better prices on the pullback levels.

RSI is heading up to show that there’s bullish momentum left, but the oscillator is nearing the overbought zone to signal exhaustion. Turning lower could indicate that sellers are about to return. Stochastic has already made it to the overbought zone to show that buyers are tired and might be ready to let bears take over from here.

Renewed bullish expectations and low trading volumes may have propped bitcoin up earlier in the week, but it remains to be seen if the gains can be sustained. After all, traders had been holding out for actual industry developments before picking a clear direction for bitcoin.

Forecasts have been mixed, with some calling for a much larger dip to a bottom around $1,850 before bitcoin is able to pull off a big rebound. Others say that the $5,000 mark might still be reached sometime in May.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Another Upside Breakout Attempt

Bitcoin is back to testing the top of the symmetrical triangle visible on the 4-hour chart, perhaps making another attempt to break higher and sustain an uptrend.

A strong close above the $4,100 to $4,200 area could be enough to confirm that bulls have won the upper hand and could push for a climb that’s the same height as the triangle. This pattern spans $3,200 to around $4,400 so the resulting climb could take it up to $5,400 and beyond.

The 100 SMA is still above the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. This suggests that resistance is more likely to break than to hold. The moving averages are also close to the bottom of the triangle to add to its strength as support. Still, a break below the $3,800 mark could spur a slide that’s also the same size as the triangle.

RSI turned lower after recently reaching the overbought zone, indicating that selling pressure is about to kick into high gear. This oscillator has plenty of room to head south before indicating oversold conditions, which means that bears could stay in control for much longer.

Stochastic is also on the move down to show that bearish momentum is in play. The oscillator is just about to cross the center line to confirm the presence of selling pressure. With that, another dip to the triangle support could be possible.

Light trading volumes are seen to be the primary factor that propped up bitcoin, along with the slight improvement in sentiment as nearby support levels have once again been defended.

There doesn’t seem to be a major catalyst supporting the recent bounce, so there’s still a pretty good chance that the gains could be unwound as more traders and analysts weigh in. Many acknowledged that sentiment remains bullish, at least based on recent social media activity. Some maintain that the $5,000 target could be hit by May.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Volatility Jumps But Still Directionless

Bitcoin spiked strongly in both directions over the past few hours as volatility ticked higher but failed to put price in a clear course. It is still trading within the symmetrical triangle consolidation previously highlighted but might be showing some upside.

The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA, though, so the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, support is more likely to break than to hold. In that case, price could fall by the same height as the triangle, which spans $3,850 to around $4,050.

However, price is trading above the 100 SMA as an early indication of bullish momentum and might be poised to break past the 200 SMA dynamic resistance as well. Bitcoin appears to have closed above the triangle top but it could be too soon to see if this is not a fake out.

RSI is in the overbought zone and looks ready to move south to signal a pickup in selling pressure. There’s plenty of room for the oscillator to head lower before reaching the oversold region, which means that there’s plenty of time for sellers to stay in control.

Meanwhile, stochastic is just on the move up to show that bullish momentum is in play and could stay on until overbought conditions are seen. This oscillator has some ground to cover before indicating overbought conditions or exhaustion among sellers.

Technical indicators have been giving mixed signals and analysts have mixed forecasts as well. Tom Lee of Fundstrat maintains that bitcoin bulls will be back this year while others point to similarities between current price action and the 2018 bitcoin crash.

Factors that could lead to a bitcoin rally include the Bakkt platform and Fidelity’s institutional offering, but so far traders are still holding out for actual updates on how these are turning out. Any evidence of a surge in volumes could draw bulls back in, but there is still a lot of hesitation evident in the markets these days.

Others noted that bitcoin has been repeating its price action in November last year where bitcoin was stuck around the $6,400 mark before making a nearly non-stop slide to the $3,200 area.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Near-Term Upside Targets

Bitcoin is bouncing off a short-term area of interest visible on the 1-hour time frame. This could keep it on track towards testing the next upside targets marked by the Fibonacci extension tool.

Price is closing in on the 38.2% level at the $4,000 major psychological mark, which might serve as a take-profit point again. The 50% level lines up with the swing high around $4,040 that might also lead cautious buyers to book profits. Stronger bullish momentum could take price up to the 61.8% Fib at $4,062.80 or the 78.6% level at $4,100. The full extension is located at $4,168.70.

The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA for now to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. However, the gap between the indicators has narrowed enough to signal weaker bullish momentum and a potential bearish crossover. In that case, price might dip below the area of interest again and head back to the lows at $3,770.

RSI appears to be heading south even without hitting the overbought zone, indicating that sellers are eager to return. Stochastic is also heading lower to indicate that bears have the upper hand and could take bitcoin further south, especially since the oscillator has plenty of ground to cover before reaching oversold levels.

Bitcoin traders appear to be holding out for major catalysts that could confirm that the bull run isn’t over, as price would likely to clear several upside barriers before drawing more buying interest.

For now, the focus seems to be on the drop in volumes that is weighing on volatility. According to, the decline in bitcoin transaction count has coincided with the end of VeriBlock’s testnet phase. This startup accounts for 25-40% of bitcoin transactions, which is a pretty hefty amount for its size. Testing ended on March 4 and the daily transaction count dropped 21% then.

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