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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Another Bearish Break!

Bitcoin recently formed higher lows and found resistance at $6,600 to create an ascending triangle before breaking down. This signals that a downtrend is underway, likely the same height of the formation that spans $800.

The 100 SMA is still above the longer-term 200 SMA, though, so the path of least resistance is to the upside. This suggests that the breakdown could still prove to be a fakeout and bitcoin might still be able to climb back inside the triangle. Then again, price has fallen below both moving averages as an early indication of bearish momentum.

RSI has hit oversold conditions, though, so sellers might need to take a break from here and let buyers take over. Similarly stochastic is heading down but dipping into oversold territory to reflect bearish exhaustion and a possible return in bullish pressure. Price could simply pull back to the broken triangle bottom at $6,400 for a retest before resuming the drop.

Risk appetite appears to be in play in global financial markets so far this week as traders look forward to the talks between the US and China. This has lifted stocks and commodities, likely drawing investors away from cryptocurrencies for the time being. Of course the outcome of the talks could still change all that later in the week.

However, consolidation could also carry on as traders hold out for the SEC decision on the bitcoin ETF applications next month. Any hints on how their ruling might turn out could also push cryptocurrency prices around.

In the absence of any other catalysts, bitcoin traders could also take cues from overall market sentiment, although it’s not clear how it might react to changes in risk appetite. It is helpful to note that bitcoin and some of its peers were able to take advantage of capital controls in Greece a few years back, and the situation in Turkey is looking more or less similar.


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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Down to the Last Lines of Defense

Bitcoin just can’t seem to catch a break these days as it once again found itself nearing long-term support at $6,000. A break below this region could mean a prolonged decline for the cryptocurrency.

The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, the drop is more likely to persist than to reverse. However, the gap between the moving averages has narrowed to signal weaker bearish momentum.

RSI is also dipping into oversold territory on its move down, suggesting that sellers could soon take a break and allow buyers to take over. Stochastic is also indicating oversold conditions and looks ready to turn higher soon, possibly taking bitcoin along with it.

In that case, bitcoin could recover to the nearby inflection points at the moving averages. It could also revisit the latest highs around $8,500, but it’s also worth noting that lower highs were seen since the beginning of the year.

Many say that the reason for the latest slide was the SEC announcement to delay their decision on bitcoin ETF applications for September. However, this news actually broke out earlier on and it was likely the prevailing FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) sentiment that drew more sellers in.

Besides, risk aversion has returned to financial markets on China’s announcement that they would match the latest set of tariffs to be imposed by the US on August 23. This has led to more safe-haven flows and unfortunately, bitcoin has been moving to the tune of risk sentiment as well.

With that, traders dumped riskier holdings like cryptocurrencies and returned to lower-yielding assets in anticipation of more uncertainty for businesses. Traders might hold out until the actual SEC decision on bitcoin ETFs before pushing this coin in a particular direction.


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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Wedge Resistance Holding, Support Next?

Bitcoin appears to be blocked at the top of its daily falling wedge formation.

Bitcoin has formed lower highs and lower lows to create a falling wedge pattern on its daily chart. Price is hitting a roadblock at resistance and might be due to test support once more.

The 100 SMA is still below the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside. This means that the selloff is more likely to resume than to reverse. Price also came close to testing the 200 SMA dynamic resistance and is tumbling below the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point.

RSI is also heading south so bitcoin might follow suit while sellers remain in control. Stochastic is also heading lower to indicate the presence of selling pressure. Both oscillators have a bit more room to slide but are nearing oversold levels to signal potential exhaustion among sellers and a possible return in bullish pressure later on.

At the same time, the gap between the moving averages is starting to narrow to reflect slower bearish momentum. An upward crossover could bring buyers in and spark an upside break from the wedge resistance. This chart pattern spans $6,000 to around $12,000 so the resulting uptrend could be of the same height.

Bitcoin has had a rough ride in the past few days since it was bogged down by the HitBTC outage and negative remarks from Krugman. South Korea’s plans to tax cryptocurrency exchanges also weighed on prices. Still, some say that this also marks a much-needed pullback from consecutive weekly gains.

Institutional interest remains strong but probably not enough to make it to the headlines these days. Having the spotlight turn back to these kinds of updates could bring more gains for bitcoin and its fellow cryptocurrencies as funds from institutions could bring more liquidity and stronger volumes, likely drawing retail traders to reopen long positions.


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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Are Bulls Ready to Charge Again?

Bitcoin has pulled back on its climb over the past couple of days, but seems ready to resume the climb from here. Applying the Fibonacci extension tool shows the next potential upside targets.

The 38.2% extension lines up with the swing high around the $8,500 level but stronger bullish momentum could take bitcoin to the 50% extension at $8,629. From there, a continuation of the uptrend could lead to a test of the 61.8% extension at $8,912 or the 78.6% extension at $9,316. The full extension is located at $9,831.50.

The 100 SMA is still above the longer-term 200 SMA on this time frame, confirming that the path of least resistance is to the upside. In other words, the uptrend is more likely to resume than to reverse.

However, the gap between the moving averages appears to be narrowing, indicating weakening bullish momentum. If this keeps up, bitcoin could be due for a larger pullback to the next area of interest closer to the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point.

This happens to line up with a former resistance level around $6,800 to $7,000 and the rising trend line connecting the lows since June. This might be the line in the sand for a correction, though.

RSI is already pulling up after recently reaching oversold territory, suggesting that bulls are ready to charge again. A bit of bullish divergence can also be seen as price made higher lows while RSI had lower lows since the second week of July.

Stochastic is also turning higher after reaching oversold levels, which means that buyers could take control of bitcoin price action again.

Cryptocurrencies have had a rough start to the week as the catalysts haven’t been exactly positive. For one, HitBTC announced an outage due to hardware problems, sparking fears of a hack even though they assured clients that their funds are safe. This led traders to be more skeptical in reacting to news that South Korean authorities are looking to end tax breaks to cryptocurrency exchanges, which could weigh on activity and profitability.


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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Where Bulls Are Waiting

Bitcoin broke below the short-term support levels at the triangle and rising trend line, so bulls might need a larger correction before sustaining the climb. Price is still inside a new ascending channel forming on the 4-hour time frame and a test of support might be in the cards.

This channel bottom lines up with the $6,800 level and former resistance, which might hold as support moving forward. It’s also near the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point.

On the subject of moving averages, the 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. This confirms that the uptrend is more likely to resume than to reverse. However, bitcoin has tumbled below the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point to signal a bit of bearish pressure.

RSI is also heading lower to signal that sellers have the upper hand, but the oscillator is dipping into oversold territory to reflect exhaustion. Turning back up could bring buyers in, possibly allowing the mid-channel area of interest at $8,000 to hold.

Stochastic is also heading lower so bitcoin might follow suit, but it’s also approaching oversold levels. Turning back up could mean a return in bullish pressure and a bounce back to the channel top around $8,500.

Bitcoin suffered a sharp tumble after it was reported that authorities in South Korea are considering passing legislation to end tax benefits for cryptocurrency exchanges. They pointed to the strong surge in transaction volumes but the potential lack of security capabilities to guard against money laundering and illegal activity financing.

According to Hong Seong-ki, head of the country’s cryptocurrency response team South Services Commission:

While crypto markets have seen rapid growth, such trading platforms don’t seem to be well-enough prepared in terms of security. We’re trying to legislate the most urgent and important things first, aiming for money-laundering prevention and investor protection. The bill should be passed as soon as possible.


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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Is That a Shallow Bearish Channel?

Bitcoin appeared to make a downside break of the consolidation pattern previously highlighted, but bulls rushed in to prop it back up. Price now seems to be forming a shallow bearish channel on the 1-hour time frame as it made lower highs and lower lows.

A test of the resistance is currently happening and a return in selling pressure could take bitcoin back down to the bottom at $7,800. Stochastic looks ready to turn after dipping briefly into overbought territory, indicating that selling pressure is about to return.

RSI, on the other hand, is treading sideways on middle ground to signal further consolidation. This could also keep bitcoin trading slowly inside the channel while waiting for the next set of catalysts.

The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA to signal that the path of least resistance is to the upside. In other words, there’s a chance for an upside break of resistance. However, the gap between the moving averages is narrowing to signal weaker bullish momentum and a potential downward crossover.

If that materializes, bears could return and attempt another break lower. A move below the channel support could be enough to spur a steeper drop to the next longer-term support levels.

A new poll revealed that retail investors are still mostly wary of the risks involved in trading bitcoin. While a significant percentage have expressed interest, the survey by Gallup indicated that only 2% actually own it. In addition, the firm wrote:

“The price of bitcoin is back on an upswing after crashing earlier this year, causing some to say its bubble is again about to burst and others to argue that its value will only accelerate as more merchants inevitably adopt it.”

Others point to the hash rate as showing more bullish signs as it reflects a faster pace growth in the number of miners joining the bitcoin network.


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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Potential Pullback Areas

Bitcoin continues to post one strong gain after another, but a correction could be due at current levels. Applying the Fibonacci retracement tool shows the potential support areas where buyers might be waiting.

The 61.8% level lines up with an ascending trend line connecting the lows since last week. This is also around a short-term area of interest at $7,750 and the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point. A shallow correction could find support at the 38.2% Fib just above the $8,000 major psychological mark.

On the subject of moving averages, the 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the upside. This indicates that the rally is more likely to resume than to reverse. However, the gap between the moving averages is narrowing to signal weakening bullish momentum.

At the same time, RSI is turning lower after hitting overbought levels. This suggests that sellers could take over while buyers take a break or book profits off the latest rallies. Similarly stochastic is turning lower from overbought levels to signal a pickup in selling pressure.

Bitcoin has been on a good run so far this week, buoyed by the positive momentum from the earlier week. At that time, institutional interest was seen as the main catalyst for the rebound. This time, markets are focused on the SEC decision on the bitcoin ETF.

Approval could mean more liquidity and higher volumes, which could prove bullish for bitcoin. Then again, the introduction of bitcoin futures last year is also being blamed for the decline in December as it opened the cryptocurrency to short positioning.

For now, risk appetite is also propping bitcoin and its peers higher while traders appear hesitant to put more funds in the dollar. After all, trade-related tensions could escalate anytime and might keep a lid on US growth prospects and Fed tightening plans.


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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Another Major Upside Break

Bitcoin seems unstoppable in its climb as it now makes its way above the top of the descending triangle visible on the daily time frame. This chart pattern spans $6,400 to around $12,000 so the resulting rally could be of the same size.

However, the 100 SMA is still below the longer-term 200 SMA on this time frame, so the path of least resistance might remain to the downside. In other words, there’s still a chance for the slide to resume or for bitcoin to fall back inside the triangle pattern.

Price is starting to push past the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point just slightly above the triangle top, though, so bullish momentum is already building up. Bitcoin could make its way up to test the 200 SMA dynamic resistance next, and a break higher could open the floodgates for stronger gains.

RSI is already in the overbought region to signal exhaustion among buyers, and turning back down could bring selling pressure back to the mix. In that case, bitcoin could retest the broken triangle top or move all the way back down to the bottom. Stochastic has reached overbought territory as well, so sellers could take over from here.

Bitcoin has had a strong run at the start of the quarter and again last week, driven partly by a pickup in institutional attention. Many say that this also marks the start of a strong rebound that could last until the end of the year, bringing it to the price targets of at least $20,000.

In addition, billionaire investor and co-founder of Avenue Capital Group predicted that bitcoin price could reach as high as $40,000 over the next couple of years. The recent price surge was enough to catapult it back to the heap, and investors are looking to the SEC decision on the bitcoin ETF fund next.


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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Eyes on $5,800 Support

Bitcoin has been trading sideways, bouncing off support at $5,800 and finding resistance at $6,800. Price could test the bottom of the range now that it’s fallen below the area of interest at the middle.

The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA on this time frame to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside. However, the gap has narrowed enough to signal that a bullish crossover may be imminent. In that case, buyers could return and allow support to hold.

RSI is also turning higher to signal a potential return in bullish momentum. Stochastic has already made its way up and bitcoin could follow suit.

However, the cryptocurrency industry has had another flurry of negative updates in the past few days. This started from remarks by well-known American economists who took apart the features of bitcoin such as anonymity and volatility, explaining that this could prove to be the cryptocurrency’s downfall.

A security breach on Bancor also weighed heavily on sentiment, reviving fears of further hacks and stolen tokens. The latest theft reportedly affected $13.5 billion in cryptocurrency.

Meanwhile, the dollar has mostly held its ground on safe-haven buying and stronger tightening expectations. PPI figures released earlier in the week sparked speculations of an upside CPI surprise while Fed officials reiterated their support for more hikes this year.

Looking ahead, trade war troubles could continue to hurt sentiment but it looks like traders are returning to stocks and commodities this time. Bitcoin would need a set of strong positive catalysts to revive investor optimism that the industry could see a strong rebound towards the end of the year.

Otherwise, more attention on regulation and negative commentary could keep a lid on bitcoin gains throughout the month while the US dollar could take its cues from market sentiment as usual.


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Bitcoin May Fall to $2,500 Before it Rebounds

The price of Bitcoin continues to take a tumble. The number one cryptocurrency according to market capitalization continues to experience a tumultuous 2018. One expert even predicts that BTC may bottom out at $2,500 as the crypto market continues to struggle.

Bitcoin Hovers Above $6,000

More than a week ago, BTC dropped $1,000 (from $7,700 to $6,700) in the space of a few hours as a wave of selloffs hit the market. The period coincided with the Coinrail hack as well as the U.S. government demand for information from top exchange platforms on suspicion of price manipulation.

In the past few days, BTC has experienced some degree of recovery, but all that was wiped away on June 21 as prices fell below $6,500. At the time of writing this article, Bitcoin is trading slightly above the $6,100 with a seven percent decline in the last 24 hours.

Signs of Bottoming as Bitcoin Selling Becomes Exhausted

In a recent CNBC article, Bill Baruch, the President of Blue Line Futures said that Bitcoin is approaching its bottom level. According to him, there are signs that the volatility of the market is “depressed.” Baruch also revealed that the BTC sales market has become supersaturated.

Fears of two back-to-back cryptocurrency exchange hacks may have pushed retail investors over the edge. The market is to stranger to panic selling at the slightest hint of a crisis. Conversely, Janine Wolf of Bloomberg declared recently that there is no end in sight for the current downtrend, saying:

According to the Directional Movement Index, bitcoin is on its strongest negative trend since the sell-off earlier this year. The index’s ADX line is currently at 39.3. Anything above 25 is considered a strong trend. Meanwhile, the index’s DVAN trend line, a divergence analysis that measures buying or selling pressure, is also giving off ominous signals.

Bitcoin Can Fall to $2,500 and Still Rebound to $14,000

No matter the extent to which BTC falls, experts like Luis Carranza, the founder of London Fintech Week believes Bitcoin will bounce back, saying:

Crypto is unpredictable. There are massive spikes and drops. $4500 could be the bottom, but nothing is preventing $2500 from being the bottom.

Bitcoin optimists point to the emergence of regulatory clarity and the influx of institutional investments as reasons why BTC will recover. Commenting on the role of clear regulations in the market, Gavin Pannu of the London Academy of Trading said:

Central Bankers have been quiet during the cryptocurrency bull-run and have been doing their due diligence with research and white papers carried out by regulators and experts in the field, and the market is anticipating an optimistic view from Central Banks. Regulating cryptocurrency would ease investors’ concerns.

On the subject of institutional money coming into the market, experts like Matthew Newton of eToro believe it breathes new life into the industry. According to Newton, the presence of large investors in the market is an “important development” in the crypto world. Notable names like Goldman Sachs and Nasdaq have made significant inroads into cryptocurrency in recent months. However, Newton believes that the proper regulations will make big money flow into the market, saying:

For institutions to fully commit, they’ll need more structured products and some sort of regulatory oversight. Reputational risk is a big issue for them, as is overcoming the media skepticism. Once an appropriate regulatory framework is in place, big-ticket money is likely to follow suit swiftly.

What is your Bitcoin bottom price prediction? Do you think BTC will attain the heights reached in late 2017? Keep the conversation going in the comment section below.

Image courtesy of the CoinMarketCap.