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Adamant Capital: Bitcoin in ‘Accumulation Phase’ Before Next Bull Run

Bitcoin Price Prediction 2019

A new report by Adamant Capital concludes that the bear market for Bitcoin might be nearing an end, with the currency entering an accumulation phase before the next big bull run.

Compared to the crypto winter of 2018, during which investors were forced to shed BTC or suffer losses as the currency fell from $20,000 to a relative low of $3000, the current market has traders much more optimistic about on the price outlook. Investors are now accumulating Bitcoin, putting pressure on bears who may be selling just ahead of another big price rally.

Tuur Demeester and Michiel Lescrauwaet, co-authors of the report, said that the current price point for Bitcoin should be appealing to investors,

“Now, at 75% below its 2017 all-time high, we believe the current bear market represents an exceptional opportunity for value investors.”

In what Adamant Capital refers to as the ‘accumulation phase’ for Bitcoin, the analytics firm expects BTC to trade in a range of $3000 and $6500, as bears unload their coins to willing bulls who are looking to lock in a discounted price for the number one cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

The report also concluded that retail investors took a bath in November 2018, capitulating any previously made gains–or submitting to significant losses–in a capitulation event that saw the price of Bitcoin fall 48 percent. While some of the cryptocurrency price fall can be attributed to the market uncertainty of Bitcoin Cash’s hash war, investors were also fatigued from nearly 12 months of bear market prices. The end result is a glut of investors looking to re-enter the market at a favorable condition, especially if they sold out at Bitcoin’s relative price low during last November.

Adamant Capital has made a point of tracking unrealized Profit and Loss and indicator of market performance, and reports that the most recent price rally has had a substantial impact on that metric,

“The recent price rally from $4,000 to over $5,000 markedly improved HODLer’s Unrealized P&L improving our reported sentiment value from capitulation to hope,”

The report, in particular, looks at the claim that retail investors (individual investors as opposed to professional traders or institutions) have largely left the market following the last year of losses. Such a situation would indicate that the well of bearish sellers for Bitcoin may be smaller than previously thought. Adamant Capital points to Google Trends data that indicates “apathy and disinterest” on behalf of retail investors, with searches for Bitcoin dropping to as low as March 2017 values.

Adamant also points to gradual decline in Bitcoin price volatility over the last several months, a factor that has historically been attributed to the actions of retail investors,

“High Bitcoin volatility can be a proxy for the involvement of trigger-happy retail speculators, whereas low volatility tends to coincide with phases of consolidation, apathy, and accumulation.”

With finicky retail investors gone, long-term holders have come to make up the majority of the market, a group that will be looking to accumulate more BTC at current prices and avoid succumbing to the bearish sellers.

The combination of price anticipation and investor makeup has led Adamant to conclude that Bitcoin, at its current price point, is back in “undervalued territory.”

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Messari CEO: ‘Wealth Transfer’ Will Take Bitcoin (BTC) to $50,000

Bitcoin BTC Price Prediction Messari

As the crypto markets enter their second straight day of bullish price movement, with Bitcoin trading above $5000 for the first time since last year, a number of analysts are weighing in with their prediction for the future of crypto asset value.

Ryan Selkis, founder and CEO of the cryptocurrency research firm Messari believes that Bitcoin will continue to climb in the coming years, gaining over 1,000% to reach a valuation of $50,000. Specifically, Selkis cites the mass “wealth transfer” that is going to occur in the coming years, as the baby boomer generation gives way to millenials, both in terms of capital and wealth inheritance.

Selkis referred to this mass movement of wealth in a tweet published on Mar. 28, just days before Bitcoin took off in price. According to Selkis, millenials stand to inherit $30 trillion in wealth from their baby boomer generation parents, which presents a vast amount of capital that could influence cryptocurrency,

“There’s a $30 trillion “great wealth transfer” expected in the next 20+ years (millennials inheriting money from their parents).

If 1% of that goes into cryptocurrencies, crypto will be a multi-trillion dollar asset class.

That’s the conservative case for $50k+ bitcoin.”

Messari’s CEO refers to the $50,000 prediction for BTC as “conservative,” explaining that his numbers only assume a 1 percent investment by millennials in the money they will be inheriting from their parents. Selkis also assumes that millennial generations will have far greater interest for investing in digital assets and cryptocurrency, a stat-line that has been largely confirmed over the last year through various polling organizations.

Millennials, on average, are both more interested in cryptocurrency and invested in the industry of digital assets. While cryptocurrency has its appeal to a younger generation–more upside in terms of reward, despite the increased investment risk of highly volatile assets–education and lack of understanding tends to be a sticking point for the industry as a whole. The majority of polled investors, moreso in older generations, report lacking a basic understanding of Bitcoin, cryptocurrency and digital assets–a feature that could be hampering the investment potential more-so than just age differences.

Mati Greenspan, senior market analyst for cryptocurrency trading and social platform eToro, agreed with Selkis’s prediction that wealth transfer would benefit the market for Bitcoin,

“The current market cap of bitcoin is around $73 billion. If an additional $300 billion were to flow into bitcoin than it could easily increase the total market cap by 10 to 20 times the incoming capital.”

However, some analysts continue to remain skeptical on the state of cryptocurrency and Bitcoin, despite the growing adoption and valuation throughout 2019. While the entry of Facebook and J.P. Morgan Chase into cryptocurrency, via stablecoins, has been hailed as a positive movement for the industry, others see it as a way of circumventing established currencies. Bitcoin and other top cryptos may continue to see their market share decline if Facebook and mainstream companies develop their own coin projects, thereby giving their massive user bases little reason to invest in or use BTC.

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BTC/USD Price Analysis: “Bitcoin Least Speculative Investment A Person Can Make”– Weiss Ratings

Latest Bitcoin News

The Chaos Theory and the Butterfly Effect put forth by Edward Lorenz has been once again demonstrated. Predicting prices of volatile assets especially in an emerging field as crypto is but daunting.

Read: CoinDesk Advisor: Crypto, Bitcoin (BTC) Valuation Models Are Wrong

Yes, the parabolic rise to last year’s highs did pump participants and so pumped were they that the fall was unexpected. Pundits, fans, trolls and crypto experts were side-stepped and their predictions were horribly wrong. The truth is, the butterflies are having a field day establishing with great accuracy that you never really know what the future holds. Add this to the evolution, regulatory involvement and the global nature of crypto, and the pressure to be right is insurmountable.

After 83 percent drops, Weiss Ratings—a US firm whose primary role is to provide traders and investors with valuable data and insights in the investment and finance Industry, is changing tune and Bitcoin is back in focus. After months of praising XRP, they are now recommending Bitcoin to their followers.

In a tweet, the firm said BTC spot price has made it the “best buying opportunities of the year”. And as a store of value, the coin is here is to stay and is “least speculative investment a person can make”. They may or may not be right. But whether Bitcoin is finding support and bottoming up depend on how it reacts at key support and resistance levels.

Also Read: Germany’s Second Largest Stock Exchange To Develop Crypto Trading Platform. TD Ameritrade Exploring the XRP Space

BTC/USD Price Analysis

BTC/USD Price Analysis

Still, BTC is stable above the all important $3,000 mark. There are hints of higher highs and BTC is up one percent against the USD in the recent 24 hours. At spot prices, our last BTC/USD trade plan is valid as long as this consolidation persists.

Trend and Candlestick Formation: Ranging, Bear Breakout

From a top down approach, the path of least resistance is crystal. Sellers are in control and after crashing below $6,000 and $4,500 in a bear breakout pattern—clear in the weekly chart, conservative and long term type of traders need to see strong movements above these levels before committing. Nonetheless, at spot prices, BTC/USD is range bound between $3,200—Dec 15 floors and highs of Dec 8–$3,700—800. Unless otherwise there are gains above $3,400 BTC could flunk, dropping to $3,000 or lower more so if there are sharp losses below last week’s lows.

Volumes: Bullish

Aside from the ecstatic volumes of Dec 6-7, a standout in recent days has to be Dec 8 bar. While it did reject lower lows complete with strong volumes—17k versus 8k average, BTC/USD prices are still moving within its high low. As it is, losses below $3,200 will invalidate Dec 8 bulls while gains above $3,400 shall cement bullish proposals allowing first wave of buyers to load up aiming at $3,700. Ideally, if there is price expansion today with volumes exceeding Dec 16, 0300 HRs volumes—5k, then buyers may retest $3,700-800 by the end of the week.

Conclusion

If our trade conditions are met and BTC find support above $3,200, then our trade plan will be as follows:

Buy: $3,400, $3,700

Stop: $3,200, $3,400

Targets: $3,700, $4,500

All charts courtesy of Trading View.

This is not investment or Financial Advice. Do your own Research.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC/USD Accumulating as VanEck Subsidiary Work on “Transparency”

Latest Bitcoin News

Of course, price is not the only metric of interest as far as Bitcoin is concerned. Adoption rate and infrastructure development is of interest. Though the coin is meant to by-pass third parties as regulators, we cannot discount the role of regulators and their constant talk of investor protection.

Other jurisdictions might be open but the community is closely watching if the US SEC shall proceed and approve the much-anticipated Bitcoin ETF come Feb 27, 2019. That’s two and a half months from now and before then, bears seem to have an upper hand especially when we take a top-down approach.

Read: BTCC Co-Founder Lee Hints At $333,000 Bitcoin (BTC) Prediction For 2021

From the look of things, we can only guess the route that SEC might take and considering more banks are showing their interest in the space, we can only speculate that they might just give the VanEck Bitcoin ETF a pass.

Earlier, the SEC cited transparency saying the market was prone for manipulations and various stakeholders are now working on ensuring complete openness. A few days ago, a Frankfurt based company with relations to VanEck did launch MVIS Bitcoin US OTC Spot Index (MVBTCO).

Also Read: Bitcoin Price Prediction Gone Wrong: $1M Options Call To Be Purged

The index core objective is to promote transparency and to that end it draws its price feeds from Cumberland, Circle Trade and Genesis Trading. Most of the time institutions trade through liquid OTC firms and this index is a reliable benchmark for their investment.

BTC/USD Price Analysis

BTC/USD Price Analysis

There are hints of BTC demand in lower time frames and in the last day, BTC/USD is up 1.7 percent. This is modest to say the least and that means bears are still in control. On a weekly basis, BTC/USD is down 15 percent but considering events of the last few days, bears appear to be slowing down and range bound in lower time frames. Clear floors are at $3280.

Trend: Bearish, Momentum Fading

Aside from the negative sloping trend line connecting highs of the last few weeks, losses of the last few weeks are a reliable indicator of trend. But, even as bears threaten to drive prices lower, BTC demand is increasing in lower time frames. In the 4HR chart, prices are ranging within a tight $500 range with clear resistance and support at $3,800 and $3,280.

Volumes: Bullish, Increasing

What we have in this time frames are a series of higher highs with floors at $3,280 as BTC/USD range horizontally. Unless otherwise there are gains above $3,800 resistance, bears are in control but we are rooting for bulls thanks to standout bull bars of the last two days. Dec 7–22k versus 11k average by 1900 HRs, Dec 8—17k versus 8k 2300 HRs bar and Dec 9—7k versus 5k average bull bars are of interest as far as BTC/USD price analysis is concerned.  Notice that even from an effort versus result point of view, prices are still trending inside Dec 8 bull bar. For buyers to be in charge, then bulls must thrust prices above $3,810. Thereafter in a bull breakout trade, traders can buy on dips or at spot with first targets at $4,500 with stops at Dec 9 lows at around $3,500.

Candlestick Formation: Breakout Trade, Range

Clearly, BTC/USD is within a bear breakout trade but ranging as aforementioned. But, for bulls to be in charge then we must see high volumes gains printing above Nov lows of $3,800. This move will invalidate the bear breakout pattern of Dec 6. However, if prices fail to recover printing below Dec 9 lows then we shall have a retest and odds are BTC might test $3,280—or lower by the end of the week.

Conclusion

From candlestick arrangement, bulls might recover above $3,800. As such, our BTC/USD trade plan will be as follows:

Buy Trigger: $3,800—Dec 8 Highs

Stops: $3,500—Dec 9 Lows

First Targets: $4,500

All Charts courtesy of Trading View.

This is not Investment Advice. Do you own Research.

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BTC/USD Price Analysis: Bitcoin Surge above $4,700 Could Open Doors for $6,000

Latest Bitcoin News

After eight years hiatus, it appears as if Satoshi Nakamoto is back activating his P2P Foundation account. By befriending one Wagner Tamanaha and commenting “Nour” the crypto space was quick to react with some skeptical saying his account might have been hacked. Now, whether Satoshi is back or not, it all depends on whether he shall make a comeback on his BitcoinTalk account giving insight on the way forward especially on contentious issues surrounding scalability. And in the midst of all this, it will be exciting how Craig Wright respond to the “awaken” Satoshi.

While this is exciting, regulators across the globe are working overtime to bring law and order in the space. Days after passing a new Financial Bill, law makers in Estonia did amend the Anti Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing Prevention Act to include crypto clauses and sync with the EU’s Fourth Money Laundering Prevention Directive. By doing so, the Estonian Financial Supervision Authority (FI) believes they shall clamp down and prevent undesirable elements from laundering or financing terrorist activities through crypto platforms.

Meanwhile, the SEC boss Jay Clayton—though issuing disclaimer clarifying that his comments are his—said in a recent discussion that Bitcoin is a utility since no group has control of it. He further went on and said that while the technology is new, crypto assets and platforms should comply with time-tested rules set by the commission.

BTC/USD Price Analysis

BTC/USD Price Analysis

After week ending Nov 25, we expected Bitcoin prices to capitulate but it didn’t. BTC/USD is down 0.5 percent in the last week but pretty stable in the last day. However, this doesn’t mean bulls are in control despite the high trade volumes supporting prices above $3,700. In fact, from candlestick arrangement, BTC/USD could sink below $3,000 confirming week ending Nov 25 losses.

Trend: Bearish

It has been a steep fall for Bitcoin and after clearing the $5,800 main support line thanks to Nov 14 uncertainty ahead of BCH hard fork and hash war, BTC is yet to recover. From the chart, the fall has been almost perpendicular. Therefore, before we fade this bear trend there must be strong gains above our minor resistance line at $4,700.

Volumes: Flat, increasing

Thing is BTC/USD might be bearish but is finding strong support between $3,700 and $4,000 and better still oscillating in a $1,000 range between $3,700—or Nov 2018 lows and $4,700—the upper limit of this consolidation. Now, within this accumulation, Nov 25—82k versus 47k average and Nov 28—68k versus 65k average are bull bars of our concern.

Notice that we might end up with a three-bar bullish reversal pattern if buyers build enough momentum, racing above $4,700 triggering buys in the process. And from an effort versus result point of view this could print out now that price action is still confined within Nov 28 high lows—a bull bar with above average volumes.

Candlestick Formation: Bear Breakout, Accumulation

After Nov 14-15 declines, BTC/USD did break below the 11-month support zone in a bear break out pattern. This meltdown is clear in higher time frame especially the weekly chart where the close below the wedge did trigger the next wave of bears leading to a whole bear bar printing below $5,800. Now, despite this $1,000 consolidation, bears are in control and for bulls to be in charge then we must see gains above $4,700.

Conclusion

Technically, bears are in charge and before we recommend bulls, we must see confirmation of Nov 25 and 28 high volume bull bars and completion of the three-bar bull reversal pattern—the Morning Star pattern as prices close above $4,7000 triggering bulls aiming at $5,500 and $6,000. If not and there are drops below $3,700 or Nov 25 lows, then we might see further declines towards $3,000 or lower.

All Charts Courtesy of Trading View.

This is not Investment Advice. Do your Own Research.

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