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Are The Bitcoin Bulls Back? Brian Kelly Weighs In

As reported by Ethereum World News, the cryptocurrency market has been on a surprising tear over the past 24 hours, with a majority of assets posting gains of upwards of 6-7%. At the time of writing, Bitcoin stands at $6,400 after a brief step over the $6,500 line, while a majority of altcoins have seen a return of upwards of 5%. Some altcoins, like Nano, have had an astounding day, with bulls pushing the price of the cryptocurrency up by 25% or more.

Although the cryptocurrency market may have been on thin ice before this recovery, the ice isn’t so thin now, with Bitcoin establishing lines of support at higher lows.

On Wednesday, Bria’s “Fast Money” segment covered this recovery, with Brian Kelly, CNBC’s in-house crypto analyst, doing his best to reason why the market saw such a strong rebound.

Kelly opened up his section calling the market’s price action a “wild ride,” alluding the trials and tribulations the market has faced over the past few weeks. The analyst went on to draw attention to the performance of BTC before, during, and after the expiry of CBoE-based Bitcoin futures. According to statistics which CNBC has attributed to Justin Stanislaw, Bitcoin often does poorly in the days leading up to an expiry date, but sees a 10% move upwards in the week following a futures expiry.

Likening today’s expiry to a similar occurrence, Kelly noted that following the April futures expiry, Bitcoin saw a 20% gain in a mere 6 days. While not explicitly stating it, it’s clear to see that founder of the crypto-centric BKCM fund is expecting for Bitcoin to continue to experience positive bouts price action over the next few days.

To add fuel to the metaphorical bullish flame, Kelly, who has become a near-notorious permabull, added that Bitcoin may be undergoing a short squeeze, as shorts cover their losses in this potential trend reversal.

This sentiment sparked a question from another CNBC panelists, who asked if “these other cryptocurrencies” will bottom out along with Bitcoin. Kelly responded, stating:

They (altcoins) are still quite correlated (with Bitcoin). Over the last 60 days or so, Bitcoin has really been the leader — a lot of that had to do with the speculation about an ETF. But what you did see today is stuff like Ethereum almost 10% off yesterday’s lows, stuff like Stellar Lumens — still holding up quite well. So yes, if you get a 10 or 15 percent run on Bitcoin on a short squeeze, it should bring everything else back up.

So as is normally the case, it is likely that if Bitcoin runs, so will a majority of altcins, albeit with some variance in either the bullish or bearish direction.

However, some had their doubts, including CNBC trader Dan Nathan, who queried Kelly on if the capitulation phase of the market has “petered out.” Turning the question somewhat on its head, the cryptocurrency bull noted that $5,900 may prove to be a level of support if a sell-off continues. Nonetheless, it seems that with this episode of CNBC Fast Money passing by, Kelly remains as bullish as ever.

While some were quick to cast Wednesday’s bout of positive price action aside, calling it a classic bull trap, there are some optimists who are convinced that this might be the beginning of the end of the crypto bears.

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Selling Bitcoin Because of ETF Delay is a Wrong Decision, Says Brian Kelly

Cryptocurrency trader and CEO of BKCM LLC, Brian Kelly, has faulted investors who are jumping on the selling bandwagon to dump their Bitcoin in the wake of the latest SEC decision to postpone the approval of yet another ETF.

ETF Rumour Contributed to Bitcoin Price Rally in July

Speaking to CNBC on Tuesday, shortly after the decision by the SEC to delay the VanEck/SolidX ETF, Kelly advised traders not to get caught in the frenzied panic that usually follows such news. According to Kelly:

Bitcoin has had a tremendous run off of $5,800, and that was all really because people thought there was going to be a Bitcoin ETF. The SEC came out and postponed that decision.

In the aftermath of the decision, BTC price went downhill, even reaching $6,100. However, Kelly believes it is a poor investment choice to panic sell because the SEC delayed another Bitcoin ETF. According to Kelly, there is more going on beyond the prospect of a BTC ETF. In fact, the BKCM chief doesn’t think there will be an SEC-approved Bitcoin ETF in 2018.

A little spoiler alert, on September 30, SEC will likely postpone it again, because the market is not ready for it and the SEC hasn’t had the answers to their questions yet.

A lot of the SEC’s reticence on the matter is based on a few fundamental issues with the market. Questions over custodial tools, lack of liquidity, and allegations of price manipulation continue to trail the market.

Reasons for the Ethereum Classic Price Surge

In another development, Ethereum Classic (ETC) has been enjoying a significantly great run over the last few weeks. The 13th-ranked cryptocurrency is up by almost 30 percent over the previous 30 days. According to Kelly, this price rally is due to an increase in the crypto’s adoption namely by Robinhood and Coinbase.

Earlier in the year, Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange platform in the United States announced that it was considering adding ETC to its trading catalog. In August, the platform finally launched ETC on its institutional trading desk with plans to launch the coin on its retail side as well in the coming weeks.

Robinhood, the Menlo Park-based based crypto trading platform also announced the addition of ETC to its trading platform as well. According to Kelly, these additions have created the first meaningful institutional access to Ethereum Classic, hence the massive price surge.

Do you agree with Kelly’s comments about not selling Bitcoin after the SEC decision? Keep the conversation going in the comment section below.

Image courtesy of Coinmarketcap.

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Bitcoin Price is Set for Another Breakout, Says ‘Wall Street’s Crypto King’

For the third day in a row, Bitcoin continues to trade below the $8,000 mark that it has gained in July 2018. A flurry of events beginning with the Winklevoss ETF rejection by the SEC has seen the price of the top-ranked cryptocurrency take a considerable tumble. However, a couple of experts believe that another price breakout is imminent.

Bitcoin Needs Higher Highs and Higher Lows

Speaking to CNBC, Bart Smith, the head of digital assets at Susquehanna said that Bitcoin needs higher highs and higher lows. According to Smith, $6,800 is probably the bottom for BTC, and that value needs to go higher to give the crypto a bigger upward bounce. Speaking on the state of the market, Smith also said:

A lot of traders see the $6,800 level is something it needs to break through. We have lower highs and lower lows, and we need to break out of that. You look forward to a new bitcoin ETF coming out, and there is a lot of enthusiasm. The price goes all the way up to $8,400. The ETF gets rejected, and it goes down again. We need to see higher highs and higher lows, so the continuation to breakthrough and hold at $7,500 and bounce higher.

Smith, popularly referred to as the ‘Crypto King of Wall Street,’ also commented on the next step in the evolution of the Bitcoin market. The Susquehanna chief said that big name brands need to enter the market to provide an incentive for more institutional players to put up equity in BTC futures.

Significant Events in Q4 2018 Might Spark Bitcoin Price Rally

For Brian Kelly of BKCM LLC, Q4 2018 might be an exciting time for the top-ranked cryptocurrency. According to Kelly, the emergence of robust custodial tools for cryptocurrency are probably four to six months away. Speaking also to CNBC, Kelly said:

We are in an environment where there’s lots of regulation, and this is the best opportunity to get something new through. The iron is hot; it’s time to strike. You have to remember, Bitcoin can move five percent on any given day so. While it may seem crazy to the legacy market, in the Bitcoin world, this is just a normal correction.

At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $7,600 after a quick drop a few hours ago to $7,500.

What do you think about the comments of Bart Smith and Brian Kelly? Keep the conversation going in the comment section below.

Image courtesy of Business Insider and Coinmarketcap.com

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3 Reasons Why the Bitcoin (BTC) Rally is Here to Stay According to Brian Kelly of CNBC’s Fast Money

The total crypto market capitalization has surpassed the $300 Billion mark and is currently valued at $301.5 Billion. With the increase in volume of the crypto markets, Bitcoin (BTC) has broken past two recently stated resistance levels of $7,600 and $8,000 in quick succession and in a period of less than a week. The King of Crypto is currently trading at $8,310 and looks set to get to $10,000 by the time August rolls by.

With the increase in value of BTC comes the question of whether the current Bitcoin rally will continue into the rest of the year. Many crypto-traders have been treading cautiously as they too are not sure if this is an official bull run or the feared bull trap.

Brian Kelly, a regular contributor on CNBC’s Fast Money offered his insights as to why the Bitocin rally is here to stay. To begin with, Kelly stated that the current Bitcoin ETF frenzy is one of the driving forces of the current market excitement. Many traders believe that the SEC decision will be made around the 16th of August but Kelly believes that the chances of the Bitcoin ETFs being approved in 2018 are very slim. He stated that:

The chances of an ETF in 2018 are relatively low…but that does not stop the speculation on that. And that is one reason why we have seen this bottoming process to $5,800 all the way up here

A second reason the Bitcoin rally is here to stay according to Brian Kelly, is the interest of the crypto markets by institutional investors. He added that:

Institutions are starting to get serious. I can tell you from the calls I am getting. People who looked at [BTC] in December did not like the price. They are coming back now and saying, ‘Alright this thing is not going away. We need to understand what it is.’

The third reason why the current Bull run will continue, is that the said Institutions have acknowledged what is known as ‘Web 3.0’. Kelly described Web 3.0 as follows:

Web 3.0 is the new Internet, an improved Internet, with data that can be monetized. How do you send something of value across an open network like the Internet? With a cryptocurrency, and that is exactly why institutions are starting to get into this [bitcoin]. They’re seeing how this fits into a portfolio of Web 3.0 stocks.

In conclusion, even thought leaders such as Brain Kelly believe that the current Bitcoin rally is here to stay.

Disclaimer: This article is not meant to give financial advice. It is an opinion piece. The opinion herein should be taken as is. Please carry out your own research before investing in any of the numerous cryptocurrencies available.

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Bitcoin Price Rally Might be Temporary

While BTC permabulls are no doubt happy to see Bitcoin prices recover from a slight dip, one expert believes the increase is only temporary. Spencer Bogart is of the opinion that a coming forced selling will most likely cause prices to decline even further.

Forced Selling by Crypto Hedge Funds May Drive Prices Lower

Spencer Bogart. Credit medium.com/@Bitcom21

Speaking to CNBC, yesterday (June 25, 2018), Bogart said that though he was “super bullish” on cryptocurrency at the moment, another significant price dip was imminent. According to Bogart, many of the cryptocurrency hedge funds established in 2017 are nearing their “one-year lock up.” Bogart argues that with the market declining by more than 50 percent since the start of the year, many liquid providers will be looking to sell. Liquid providers act as intermediaries between brokers and virtual currency exchange platforms. He went on to say:

They’re saying, ‘hey, I want to redeem out of that fund. That means forced selling on behalf of all of these new crypto funds that have popped up. I think that could take prices artificially lower.

2017 saw a massive spike in the number of cryptocurrency hedge funds. Spurred on by the meteoric rise in the price of many major crypto species, these funds have declined somewhat during the “cryptocurrency winter” of 2018. According to Bogart, many fund investors will be looking to count their losses by making forced sales of their holdings. Massive BTC selloffs usually result in significant price drops.

Bogart also had some useful advice for people looking to enter the market, saying:

Most people that are going to wait for lower prices will end up paying higher prices than they are today. So, I think the right move is not to try and time the market and try and average into it.

Spencer Bogart is a partner at San Francisco-based VC firm, Blockchain Capital. The firm focuses on supporting cryptocurrency/blockchain technology startups.

Bitcoin Has Bottomed

Brian Kelly / Courtesy: CNBC

In a related development, Brian Kelly of BKCM LLC believes that Bitcoin may have reached a new bottom. Speaking also to CNBC, Kelly referred to the previous BTC price dip that saw the top-ranked crypto slip below $6,000 on June 25. According to Kelly:

We saw bitcoin hit new lows; I think we went to $5,779. And then within about 10 or 15 minutes, you had a huge ramp up, hundred, two hundred points, and that’s typically the action that bitcoin has shown at bottoms.

Kelly also revealed that the present BTC mining cost was somewhere in the $5,900 region. Thus, miners are incentivized to keep prices above that level or risk incurring significant losses.

The BKCM chief went on reveal that it was still early days as far as knowing the future BTC price trajectory. He, however, noted positive signs such as increasing demand from Asia as well as the latest $250 million worth Tether that was printed on June 26, 2018.

Do you think the scheduled selling by crypto hedge funds will cause BTC prices to tank? What are your opinions on Kelly’s Bitcoin bottom analysis? Keep the conversation going in the comment section below.

Image courtesy of Ethereum World News archives and CoinMarketCap.

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CNBC’s Brian Kelly: Current Bear Trend ‘By No Means’ Funeral for Bitcoin

The current bear market is not a funeral for Bitcoin (BTC) “whatsoever,” CEO of BKCM LLC investment firm Brian Kelly said on CNBC’s Fast Money segment June 22.

To back up his statement, Kelly provided three key factors. First, he pointed out that the market sentiment is “approaching lows,” implying that a trend reversal is likely to follow.

Bitcoin, trading at $5,881 as of press time, has been in an almost continuous decline since hitting its all-time-high of $20,000 in December 2017.

Chart

Bitcoin price chart. Source: Cointelegraph Bitcoin Price Index

Despite that, Kelly called attention to the fact that Bitcoin is still trading at the same level as back in November 2017, whereas a year ago its value was 60 percent lower – around $2,500.

Next, Kelly mentioned the recent news that Japan’s Financial Services Agency has sent out business improvement orders to 6 domestic exchanges. He pointed out that while in the short run it’s going to be “a little tough,” in the long run it will help make the exchanges more “robust.”

Third, Kelly brought up the announcement by Mt. Gox to reimburse its customers and begin civil rehabilitation proceedings, following the $473 million hack in late 2013 and the resulting bankruptcy. Mt. Gox was considered to be the largest hack in the history of crypto, until this year’s $534 million Coincheck hack.

On June 5, Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin has been declared “dead” for the 300th time, according to the 99Bitcoins “obituary list.” By press time, the cryptocurrency has “died” 315 times, with 69 “deaths” taking place this year alone.

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Bitcoin is Not Dead, Says Brian Kelly

Brian Kelly of BKCM LLC remains bullish on Bitcoin despite the steady decline experienced in 2018. Speaking to CNBC yesterday (June 22, 2018), Kelly boldly declared that Bitcoin isn’t dead yet. The top-ranked cryptocurrency has plunged by more than 65 percent since the start of the year.

“Sentiment is Approaching the Lows”

According to Kelly, the negative sentiment in the BTC is approaching the lows. Thus, a revival is right around the corner. He dismissed the idea that Bitcoin was dead, highlighting several factors that have contributed to the dip in BTC prices since the start of 2018. The BKCM boss identified the tax selloffs and crypto exchange hacks as part of the reason for the negative sentiment of retail traders in the market.

Brian Kelly / Courtesy: CNBC

Kelly also highlighted the fact that despite the BTC price decline, Bitcoin is still more valuable than it was a year ago. In June 2017 BTC was trading at $2,500 which is still miles away from the lows being experienced in the market at present.

Mt. Gox Civil Rehabilitation Means No More Selloffs from Tokyo Bitcoin Whale

Kelly also referenced the recent development in the Mt. Gox bankruptcy case. A Tokyo District Court issued a ruling yesterday that the company was to halt criminal bankruptcy proceedings and move into civil rehabilitation. Thus, the remaining BTC held by the defunct Bitcoin exchange bankruptcy trust will be divvied up among its creditors.

While in civil rehabilitation, the Mt. Gox trustee, Nobuaki Kobayashi, will be unable to offload any more BTC. Kobayashi dubbed the Tokyo Bitcoin whale, has been accused of contributing to the decline in BTC prices due to his massive selloffs. Based on the tentative schedule released by the company, the civil rehabilitation process will begin in 2019. Thus, traders can rest easy, knowing that the Tokyo Bitcoin whale isn’t striking any time soon.

Bitcoin Futures Not to Blame for Price Decline

As part of his BTC price analysis, the BKCM chief refuted the idea that the emergence of futures played a part in the BTC price decline. According to Kelly, Bitcoin futures trading hasn’t reached a level to impact the market price significantly.

Also, trading in the futures market is cash-settled so there ought not to be any negative liquidity implications on BTC on account of its futures market. The emergence of the CME and Cboe BTC futures coincided with the rapid ascent of prices seen in mid-December.

Bitcoin Will Rebound in 2019

In a related development, Todd Gordon of Tradinganalysis.com expects BTC to bounce back in 2019. In a telephone chat with CNBC yesterday, Gordon revealed that he wasn’t shocked by the way BTC has declined in 2018 saying:

It [the BTC price drop] was part of the plan. I expected Bitcoin to drop below $5,000, shake out a lot of longs, [and create] a lot of discouragement. I think the technicals will kick in around the $3,000 or $4,000 mark.

Gordon predicted that BTC would be back above $10,000 in February 2019.

Do you agree with Kelly that Bitcoin is not dead? What factor(s) do you think are responsible for the current BTC price decline? Let us know your views in the comment section below.

Image courtesy of the CoinMarketCap and Ethereum World News archives.

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Cryptocurrency ICOs are Overvalued, Says Brian Kelly

Brian Kelly believes the current ICO market is overvalued. Kelly was commenting on the space of the crypto fundraising ecosystem during a recent interview on CNBC. Brian Kelly is the founder of BKCM, a digital currency investment firm.

The ICO Market is Inflated

According to Kelly, the currency Initial Coin Offering (ICO) market is inflated. Thus, many investors are electing to keep their powder dry concerning getting into the market. Kelly went to say that:

People are starting to say, ‘I’m going to put the brakes on the ICOs right now. I’ve got my portfolio. I don’t need a seventh or eighth ICO. To me, [ICOs are] not as hot as they used to be.

ICOs were something of a revelation in the cryptocurrency industry in 2017. In fact, apart from the meteoric rise of Bitcoin prices, the other significant news throughout the year was the increasing popularity of ICOs. However, despite the popularity of ICOs even attaining much higher levels, Kelly believes the market has become supersaturated. He also described the ICO space as being “frothy.”

The Emergence of Dollar-denominated Crowdsale Campaigns

The BKCM CEO also highlighted an emerging trend that is becoming popular in the industry – dollar-denominated crowdsales. According to Kelly ICOs are being funded with the U.S. dollar instead of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ether. Kelly explained the reason for the new trend, saying:

Investors are actually looking to buy ether, to buy bitcoin, to buy some of these big protocols, these platforms that everything is being built on.

So, in effect, many people aren’t investing in crypto/blockchain projects because they buy into their key value propositions (if any) but are doing so to obtain cryptocurrency tokens that could later be exchanged for Bitcoin and Ether. Of course, for such a strategy to work, the tokens will have to “pump” considerably and sold off at the right time.

2018 Surpasses 2017 in Total ICO Revenue

Still only less than half of 2018 gone by so far, yet there have been more than 300 ICOs launched. This number is almost equal to the total number of ICO campaigns launched in the whole of 2018. Despite this development, Kelly isn’t buying into the hype even though crypto crowdsales have accrued more revenue in 2018 than in 2017.

Telegram played a prominent role in the record revenue figures seen so far in 2018. The messaging service carried out a $1.7 billion crowdfunding campaign before canceling it in May. Other projects like TaTaTu, a blockchain-based social media service managed to raise more than half a billion dollars from the sale of its tokens.

The U.S. is Lagging Behind in the ICO Market

Kelly brought up the point that the United States is way behind based on its involvement in the cryptocurrency crowdfunding market. The SEC has increased its scrutiny on ICOs making it difficult for many entrepreneurs to host their campaigns in the country.

Meanwhile, countries like South Korea and Thailand are in the process of clarifying their ICO regulations. This development would mean even increased fundraising activities in Asia.

Do you agree with Brian Kelly that the ICO market is inflated? Have you participated in any ICOs in 2018? Keep the conversation going in the comment section below.

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Brian Kelly About BIS Report: “Its The New Guard vs The Old Guard”

After the Bank for International Settlements published its annual report in which it described cryptocurrencies as an “elusive promise,” the reactions of the experts and crypto enthusiasts were quick to follow.

Brian Kelly, Founder, and CEO of BKCM LLC, an investment firm specializing in cryptocurrency management, sharply criticized the objectivity sustaining the report.

According to Brian Kelly, the Bank for International Settlements cannot make a better statement because cryptos represent precisely the destruction of the model that this institution defends.

For Brian Kelly, the technology behind cryptocurrencies has great potential to change the current financial system. A critique such as that of BIS reproduces merely the same way of thinking as those who in the past did not believe in technological breakthroughs:

“While the markets and prices had gotten way ahead of where the technology is. In 1981, the San Francisco Examiner went online, took two and a half hours to download their newspaper. People said, this could never work, to download pictures, it takes too long. That’s where we are with Bitcoin. You gotta take a step back and put it in perspective. As this technology grows, you will get more use.”

Brian Kelly / CNBC

In his statements, Brian Kelly also mentioned that Bitcoin is like the “Napster of Money.” Napster was the first massive scale project that allowed p2p music sharing for free.

This situation led to a lawsuit that resulted in the closure of the popular platform. However, other similar models emerged without being controlled by the authorities. Networks like Ares, Kazaa, Emule, and Torrent revolutionized the way information is shared.

Brian Kelly Caused a Very Interesting Twitter Discussion

Brian Kelly’s comments generated interesting reactions from the community. One of the most notable of all led Mr. Craig Wright to state his opinion regarding the possibility of a collapse of Bitcoin.

Twitter User “The Bitcoin Hat Guy” mentioned the following regarding the comparison with Napster:

To which Dr. Craig Stephen Wright, known for his claims to be Satoshi Nakamoto, said:

Another user under the name DepNox mentioned that the position of the BIS was entirely predictable:

Playing The Devil’s Advocate

Overall, to non crypto adopters, the crypto community sees them as a way to destroy the financial system.

While it may be true that the Bank for International Settlements seems biased whent it comes to the report’s statements, it is also important to stress that they do not deny the possibility of a change in the financial system. What they highlight is that, –at least in the short or medium term– the likelihood is very remote due to the lack of maturity of some technologies.

The BIS believes that for many users it is more convenient and practical to use FIAT rather than cryptos for many reasons ranging from stability to security.

Since the time of the report’s issuance, the cryptomarket has seen a small increase in the global market cap. Bitcoin has a current price of around 6600 USD.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Compared To The Young Internet Of The 80s

The King of the Crypto-Verse, Bitcoin (BTC) is still holding steady at above $8,000 and currently trading at $8,188.  According to technical analysis this morning, Bitcoin has a healthy support at a new level of $7,900 with a possibility of testing the $8,400 to $8,500 levels. These current values are a long way from what the value was over 9 years ago when Bitcoin was first introduced to us as an open source software. The earliest value comparison for Bitcoin was 10,000 BTC for 2 Pizzas from Papa John’s in May 2010. Prior to that, Bitcoin was worth pretty much nothing.

One of the first supporters, adopters, contributor to bitcoin and receiver of the first bitcoin transaction was programmer Hal Finney. He downloaded the bitcoin software the day it was released, and received 10 bitcoins from Nakamoto in the world’s first bitcoin transaction on 12 January 2009. The value of the first Bitcoin transaction was negotiated by individuals on a bitcoin forum with the famous two pizza transaction of  10,000 BTC earlier mentioned.

It is with such a premise that CNBC Fast Money’s Brian Kelly, was quoted as referring to Bitcoin as to being like the internet in the 80s with early companies such as Cisco and Microsoft trailblazing in the industry. For Brian Kelly, Bitcoin is neither a company nor a stock. This description fits the bill of what the inventor of Bitcoin – Satoshi Nakamoto – envisioned for the cryptocurrency. Satoshi wanted the users to have full control of transactions and not financial institutions.

Going back to the to the internet of the 80s, rudimentary devices such as cassette tape recorders were used to store data because the much famous floppy disk had not been designed by Steve Wozniak. Internet connection speeds were at a merger 300 bits per second if you were lucky. Current speeds range from 1.0 Mbs (1,024 Kbps) to 2,000 Mbps currently being offered by Comcast.

This means if we are in the 80s of cryptocurrencies and blockchain, the future looks pretty bright for the crypto-verse. With the added fact that hardware and software technology has been improving on a daily basis, it is safe to say that cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology is the future of global technology and finance moving forward. It is not impossible then, for the Bitcoin price predictions of $25k, $91k and $250k floating around on the web.

[Photo, first versions of the Mac. Source: cnn.com]