Bitcoin recently formed higher lows and found resistance at $6,600 to create an ascending triangle before breaking down. This signals that a downtrend is underway, likely the same height of the formation that spans $800.
The 100 SMA is still above the longer-term 200 SMA, though, so the path of least resistance is to the upside. This suggests that the breakdown could still prove to be a fakeout and bitcoin might still be able to climb back inside the triangle. Then again, price has fallen below both moving averages as an early indication of bearish momentum.
RSI has hit oversold conditions, though, so sellers might need to take a break from here and let buyers take over. Similarly stochastic is heading down but dipping into oversold territory to reflect bearish exhaustion and a possible return in bullish pressure. Price could simply pull back to the broken triangle bottom at $6,400 for a retest before resuming the drop.
Risk appetite appears to be in play in global financial markets so far this week as traders look forward to the talks between the US and China. This has lifted stocks and commodities, likely drawing investors away from cryptocurrencies for the time being. Of course the outcome of the talks could still change all that later in the week.
However, consolidation could also carry on as traders hold out for the SEC decision on the bitcoin ETF applications next month. Any hints on how their ruling might turn out could also push cryptocurrency prices around.
In the absence of any other catalysts, bitcoin traders could also take cues from overall market sentiment, although it’s not clear how it might react to changes in risk appetite. It is helpful to note that bitcoin and some of its peers were able to take advantage of capital controls in Greece a few years back, and the situation in Turkey is looking more or less similar.