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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Just a Pullback?

Bitcoin encountered an area of interest at the $7,000 mark on its recent pop higher, which may have been just a shallow pullback from the slide. A continuation of the selloff could take bitcoin to the downside targets marked by the Fibonacci extension tool.

In particular, the 38.2% extension lines up with the swing low at $5,900 then the 50% extension is near the $5,600 psychological support. Stronger selling pressure could take it down to the 61.8% extension at $5,274 or the 78.6% extension at $4,825.70. The full extension is at $4,254.10.

The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA on this time frame to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, the selloff is more likely to continue than to reverse. Price moved briefly past the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point but has since moved back down.

RSI is pointing up, though, so there may be some bullish pressure left. In that case, bitcoin could make another attempt at pushing past the $7,000 area of interest to sustain the rally. Stochastic is also turning higher without reaching oversold levels, indicating that buyers are eager to return.

Bitcoin tumbled after the SEC rejected the bitcoin ETF applications from ProShares and Direxion this week, putting the industry a step back in terms of getting a thumbs up from regulators. Another set of ETF applications are awaiting their ruling next month.

Until then, bitcoin traders could hold out for the actual decision or any indication how it might turn out. Keep in mind, however, that the SEC has reiterated that the applications don’t show sufficient measures to rule out potential price manipulation and fraud, so the rest of the proposals might get similar concerns.

Still, it’s noteworthy how buyers continue to defend the long-term floor around $5,800 to $6,000 so another dip could see a bounce off this levels again.


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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Bulls Defending Channel Bottom?

Bitcoin has formed lower highs and lower lows to trade inside a descending channel on the 1-hour time frame. Price is currently testing the bottom and bulls still appear to be defending the support.

A bounce off this level could take bitcoin up to the channel resistance again, and the dynamic resistance at the 50 SMA and 100 SMA could add strength to the ceiling. The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside or that the selloff is more likely to resume than to reverse.

RSI is indicating oversold conditions, though, so sellers might need to take a break and let buyers take over. Stochastic is also in the oversold region to signal that bears are exhausted. Both oscillators might need to start moving higher before buying pressure returns.

Much of the bitcoin price declines are being blamed on FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) that usually comes into play in times like these. There has also been a lack of positive news that traders are hoping to get to sustain the earlier rallies.

One factor that’s also keeping gains in check is the SEC decision to delay the ruling on another bitcoin ETF application for September. This has already been reported earlier on but the notice contained more detail, such as 1,300 comments on the proposed rule change to list and trade shares for SolidX and VanEck.

With that, many are worried that bitcoin has yet to bottom out and may reach new lows before making the much-anticipated rebound for the year. Some say that the recovery might not even take place at all.

Market sentiment could stay the main driver of bitcoin price action for the next few days as traders continue to hold out for more catalysts. It has been reported that Goldman Sachs is looking into custody offering for cryptocurrency funds, once again throwing the spotlight on institutional interest, but this failed to keep bitcoin afloat.


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VanEck: Bitcoin ETF Answers $1 Billion Question

Bitcoin (BTC)–The entire landscape of cryptocurrency hangs on an upcoming decision by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in relation to approving Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). While just a month ago the industry was optimistic about the creation of BTC ETFs, the last several weeks have brought about a change in narrative.

It started with the announcement of the Winklesvoss twins’ bid for creating a crypto ETF being denied by the commission, stating the possibility of manipulation as their primary concern. While the market was rallying to double digit gains for nearly the first time this year, the price subsequently took a hit to below $8,000 for BTC. However, the price drop was short lived, as the bulls once again pushed forward on the belief in coming government regulation and institutional money. Bitmex co-founder Arthur Hayes made the high-profile prediction in July that the price of BTC would have no problem reaching $50,000 by year’s end riding on the back of an approved ETF. Unfortunately, the bullish turn in the market did not last for more than a week, with prices falling to below $7,000 and negating the positive momentum created from the ETF hype.

VanEck, a New York-based investment management firm, recently spoke with CoinDesk in an interview about the possibility of crypto ETFs and the impact they will have upon the market and industry. Gabor Gurbacs, director of digital asset strategy, put it this way when posed with the question about whether a Bitcoin ETF will be approved in the upcoming decision,

“I wish I knew the answer to your $1 billion question. Seriously.”

VanEck has been in the headlines as one of a handful of investment firms vying for creation of the first BTC ETF, with the company currently being a favorite in the race for approval. CoinDesk probed further in the interview, asking Gurbacs point-blank how he felt about his company’s chance to be green-lighted for operating the fund,

“Unfortunately, I don’t know the answer. I do know that we have addressed market structure issues and this is a chance for regulators to bring bitcoin under existing frameworks and protect investors.”

CoinDesk goes on to outline the steps VanEck has taken in securing its proposal to the SEC, a move that started three years ago via a the financial company SolidX which first sought to bring an ETF to the market. Gurbacs also makes a strong case for his company’s position over the recently denied Winklevoss ETF, stating that his company is planning to deliver an insured product, with all of the Bitcoin in the fund covered in a situation of “theft and hacks and losses of all sort.”

Gurbacs words go a long way in describing why the market has become consumed with the prospect of a BTC exchange traded fund, namely the security and protection it offers to Wall Street and other institutional investors. In addition, a positive ruling by the SEC would come with government regulations–which may be lamented by the crypto industry’s decentralized ethos–but provide a clearer picture for big-money firms looking to operate in the space. The current state of cryptocurrency is one plagued with hacks and other forms of scandal, with the legality of it all murky by most institutional standards.

Indeed, Gurbacs reiterates the company’s stance towards creating a product that is focused on institutional investors,

“Today, the bitcoin markets are still 90-95 percent retail and institutions are looking for a way to get into these markets so the physical ETF we have tailored to institutions.”

While Wall Street will bring an influx of funds to the crypto markets, hopefully to elevate the price of Bitcoin, some industry figures have become frustrated with the emphasis on SEC approval that is overriding the focus on the underlying technology.