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Forbes Analyst Expects Bitcoin (BTC) At $2,500, Awaits (Another) Awful Crash

Forbes Analyst Touts $2,500 Bitcoin Price Target

Clem Chambers, a markets analyst publishing to Forbes, recently released an article to the outlet’s contributor network, explaining why Bitcoin (BTC) could head lower in due time. Chambers, the CEO of ADVFN and a well-known financial industry journalist, first drew attention to how markets, Bitcoin included, normally react in, during, and after a “crash.”

The reporter, who hasn’t been afraid to comment on crypto historically, explained that market collapses happen in “stages,” as seen by BTC’s drawdown in 2018, which saw the asset fall to key levels at ~$10,000, $6,200, and, most recently, $3,500 for weeks at a time.

Elaborating on why his remark is relevant, Chambers noted that once a market, like crypto, stabilizes or range trades, it is only a matter of time before assets breakout, and “produce a sizeable move.” While Chambers’ comments may make it sound like he aims to be a soothsayer, he added that this isn’t a new phenomenon, nor is it rocket silence.

Applying this theory back to the only-decade-old crypto market, the ADVFN chief noted that these movements are only accentuated and compounded in crypto, as in his eyes, blockchain-based assets exist in a “very immature market” filled with certain shortcomings that may play out negatively from a price action standpoint.

More specifically, he explained that the Bitcoin price will likely “break south” for its next leg, explaining that $2,500 is a viable price point in his eyes, a reportedly key long-term support level in the eyes of some analysts.

For instance, Stephen Innes, Oanda’s head trader of the Pacific-Asia region, recently told Bloomberg that he expects for BTC to collapse to $2,500 by January 2019, due to a diverse set of bearish catalysts, namely the Bitcoin Cash hard fork, regulation, and potential crypto-related hacks. (Note: speaking with NewsBTC, he recently confirmed this sentiment, stating that regulation could weigh down on cryptocurrency market in the near future.)

Chambers, touching on his rationale behind this bearish catalyst, drew attention to the resurgence in crypto volatility, adding that this is an evident sign of “uncertainty,” which may only accentuate that this industry is undergoing a change of guard, so to speak.

At the time of writing, this market’s foremost asset, BTC, has found itself up 1.5% in the past 24 hours, situated at $3,490 a pop.

Crypto Bottom May Not Be In

Chambers’ analysis only confirms the growing sentiment that the cryptocurrency market hasn’t reached a long-term bottom. As reported by Ethereum World News previously, Naeem Aslam, a crypto-friendly contributor to Forbes and the chief market analyst at ThinkMarkets, recently told CoinTelegraph that he expects for BTC to find a floor, adding that sell-side sentiment indicates that a bottom is “close enough.”

Aslam isn’t alone in touting such sentiment, with Michael Bucella, a Goldman Sachs executive turned BlockTower Capital partner, also exclaimed that Bitcoin’s “distress cycle” has nearly run its course.

Although Chambers, the aforementioned Forbes contributor, painted a dismal picture for Bitcoin’s short-term, the reporter, like his industry pundit peers, made it clear that the next “plunge” would likely put BTC at its bonafide bottom. Case in point, the trader explained that if crypto’s collapse continues, the next leg will likely mark the end of Bitcoin’s near-year-long bout of capitulation. In summation, the financial markets savant wrote:

This means we can wait and see. The end of this crash will look awful, the ends of crashes always do. That is yet to come but the next leg could be here.

Title Image Courtesy of Chinh Le Duc Via Unsplash

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Bitcoin Dips Below $3,400 as Market Volatility Continues

Bitcoin’s volatility continues, the coin dropping below $3,400 soon after challenging $3,700.

Tuesday, Dec. 11: crypto markets have continued moving in a downward trend after challenging a recovery attempt on Sunday, Dec. 9. Almost all of the top 20 coins have seen losses over the 24-hour period, with Bitcoin SV (BSV) down the most, seeing just over 6 percent losses.

Market visualization from Coin360

Having failed to hold $3,500 support yesterday, Bitcoin (BTC) has briefly dropped below the $3,400 threshold earlier today. However, the intraday low $3,397 is still not the lowest point over the week, with the coin’s intraweek low around $3,280 on Dec. 7.

As of press time, Bitcoin is trading just above $3,400, down around 2 percent over the past 24 hours.

Recently, Cointelegraph reported on Bitcoin’s increased volatility, which has risen threefold on the month.

Bitcoin 7-day price chart. Source: CoinMarketCap

Bitcoin’s share of the crypto market, or dominance, currently amounts to 55.1 percent, seeing a considerably steady increase over the past six months.

Bitcoin Market Dominance 1-year chart. Source: CoinMarketCap

Ripple (XRP), the second largest cryptocurrency by market cap, is down about 1 percent today, and trading at $0.29, having dropped below $0.30 for the first time since Sept. 17.

Ripple three-month price chart. Source: CoinMarketCap

The third largest crypto Ethereum (ETH) is down just over 3 percent over the 24-hour period, its price dipping below the $90 threshold for the first time since May 2017. At press time, the altcoin is trading around $88.

Ethereum all-time price chart. Source: CoinMarketCap

Bitcoin SV, recently formed after a hard fork of Bitcoin Cash (BCH), is seeing the most losses among the top 20 crypto markets, with its price having declined over 6 percent as of press time. The coin is trading at $89.91 and ranks eighth in terms of market cap, while Bitcoin Cash is ranked sixth and trading at around $101.

Total market capitalization has dipped below $110 billion again, currently at $107.8 billion at press time. Daily trade volume accounts for $12.7 billion, with 2,068 cryptocurrencies listed on CoinMarketCap.

Total market capitalization 7-day chart. Source: CoinMarketCap

While crypto markets have continued seeing a decline since Sunday, Dec. 9, the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently argued that Bitcoin should be considered a “lottery ticket.” Kenneth Rogoff, who is currently a Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University, predicted that Bitcoin’s price in the long-term is “more likely to be $100 than $100,000.”

Following multiple reports about the collapse of the crypto mining sector caused by the recent market crash, Cointelegraph has reported today that to date, only two miners that use Application-Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) chips and are geared to mine coins that are based on cryptographic hash function “SHA-256” –– such as Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash ––  are still profitable for mining.

Yesterday, Dec. 10, South Korea’s National Assembly held a debate devoted to crypto regulation. Organized by key local crypto exchanges, the meeting was preceded by the financial regulator’s previous decision to allow banks to service crypto exchanges as soon as they provide proper Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Know-Your-Customer (KYC) policies.

Earlier today, U.S.-based crypto exchange Gemini, created by the Winklevoss brothers, has launched a mobile crypto trading app. Yesterday, Cameron Winklevoss tweeted on the current state of crypto market, noting that in 2018 “everyone wanted to be in crypto,” while who wants to be in crypto in 2019 remains to be seen.

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The Biggest Rises and Falls of Bitcoin, Explained

There have been rises of 1,950 percent in a year, and falls of 50 percent in a day. Here’s a look at the turbulent history of cryptocurrency.

November 2018

What is it about Novembers?

Over the course of 2018, Bitcoin has had an annus horribilis — with prices tumbling by more than 83 percent when compared to the all-time high of $19,783.

This is worse than the Nasdaq’s plunge when the dot-com bubble burst in the U.S. — and it has also delivered catastrophic consequences for many other digital currencies, which have now been rendered worthless. This is because the fate of many coins, and indeed other cryptocurrencies, is tied to blockchain in some way or another. Just take a look at Ethereum as a case in point, which has tumbled from $1,400 toward the start of 2018 to about $110 at the time of writing.

To get an idea of the enormity of this drop, Bitcoin hadn’t dipped below $4,000 since September 2017 before November’s bloodbath began. In the space of a week, Bitcoin Cash plummeted more than 56 percent — and was even overtaken by EOS briefly from a market capitalization perspective, leaving it relegated to the fifth-largest coin in the marketplace.

Following the ups and downs of the crypto market doesn’t need to be a daunting experience. Keeping an eye on the news can help ensure that you stay one step ahead — and get an idea of when major events are going to have an impact on prices. Sites such as Coin360 have also been making the market easier to navigate — offering a visual representation of cryptocurrencies and coins in real time. The size of each graphic reflects the cryptocurrency’s market capitalization — with prices and percentage changes illustrated in red and green so enthusiasts can see where the industry is heading at a glance.

 

Disclaimer. Cointelegraph does not endorse any content or product on this page. While we aim at providing you all important information that we could obtain, readers should do their own research before taking any actions related to the company and carry full responsibility for their decisions, nor this article can be considered as an investment advice.

December 2017

Bitcoin has had startling highs as well as lows.

Over the course of 2017, Bitcoin grew by a dazzling 1,950 percent — going from $974 to $20,000 in the space of a year.

Back then, as this article from Cointelegraph at the end of last year shows, there were warnings from certain commentators that a bubble was looming. Perhaps it would have been prescient to remember the wisdom of Nelly Furtado at the time. That said, crypto advocates continue to maintain that the volatility of Bitcoin can be as much of a help as a hindrance — and believe that, one day soon, it will perform in line with the glory days of 2017.

April 2013

Percentage-wise, one of the biggest falls in Bitcoin’s value.

With dizzying speed, the cryptocurrency managed to swell to a price of $260 in a bullish market, as exchanges blossomed and trader numbers boomed. But as Nelly Furtado once said, all good things must come to an end. The price tumbled down to $45 in the space of two days — a decline of 83 percent. Even roller coaster rides aren’t that brutal.

November 2013

Arguably the most famous decline in Bitcoin’s history.

Toward the end of 2013, the price of a single Bitcoin was about to reach $1,200 — modest by today’s standards but a big deal at the time. In the preceding weeks, a United States Senate hearing had buoyed the market by concluding that Bitcoin held great promise, and even China’s Central Bank had offered cautious approval.

But it wasn’t to last. China then concluded that Bitcoin was not a currency and began to impose restrictions. The bear market certainly wasn’t helped by the devastating implosion of Mt. Gox back in 2014, which saw roughly seven percent of all Bitcoin in circulation vanish. At the time, they would have been worth an eye-watering $473 million. Other distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks added to the crisis of confidence.

The warning signs first flashed on Nov. 19, 2013, when prices halved in a single day — tumbling from $755 to $378. Although they rallied soon afterward, the end of the month signaled the start of a slump that wouldn’t end for more than a year.

Toward the end of the correction, in January 2015, prices slumped to a paltry $150 — and the ramifications have lingered for years. Overall, prices tumbled by 87 percent over the 411-day ordeal.

November 2011

A sharp fall in the early days of Bitcoin.

June 2011 had seen Bitcoin’s price hit about $32, falling precipitously to $2 over the course of five months — that’s a 94 percent drop. Many investors, unsure about what to expect in the crypto world, decided to cut their losses and get out of the Bitcoin game altogether — and these same people will now be kicking themselves that they didn’t ride out the correction, as they would have undoubtedly been multimillionaires by now.

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Stablecoins Could Lead Cryptocurrency Growth in 2019

Cryptocurrency, Stablecoins–With Bitcoin making a shaky climb closer to $4000, the entire industry of cryptocurrency is still reeling from hitting a relative low on the year last week. Since the start of the year, the number one cryptocurrency by market capitalization is down nearly 80 percent since peaking close to $20,000 in December 2017.

For some, the falling price of Bitcoin and the broader altcoin has raised the alarm and led to widespread selling out, negativity and a soured mood towards crypto and blockchain-based assets. Just yesterday, EWN reported on the significant number of crypto-based startups which have been forced either to close shop or make substantial staff cuts in response to the ongoing bear market, in part due to overexposure through plummeting coin prices.

While the dire state of the industry has some lamenting the future of cryptocurrency–and others claiming Bitcoin to be dead for the 300th time–others see 2018 as a severe correction, but overall miscue for an industry that is still experiencing growing pains on the way to broader adoption and more focused development. During a Crypto Summit held on Friday in London by financial outlet Bloomberg, a series of panelists seem to suggest that, while there’s no denying the immediate outlook for cryptocurrency is shaky at best, the industry is just experiencing a temporary setback that will eventually see the market back on the expectation-shattering pace that characterized the end of 2017.

Speaking on the panel, Chief Investment Officer at CCL Investment Management James Bevan gave hope to investors who have continued to stick with crypto through the falling market year,

“I don’t regard this as an existential crisis, I just regard it as a bump in the road and institutional investors have had plenty of bumps in the road in conventional currencies and transaction systems.”

Interestingly, panelists singled out the areas of stable coins and digital contracts as two potential avenues for cryptocurrency to expand into 2019 and beyond. While the latter has been a familiar mainstay in crypto, with third largest coin by market cap Ethereum being viewed as the industry leader for executing smart contracts, the rise of stablecoins has characterized 2018 in much the same way that “blockchain” became a buzzword throughout last year.

“While no one forecast an immediate rebound in crypto prices — Bitcoin has lost about 80 percent of its value this year — they cast the current downturn as more like growing pains than rigor mortis. In fact two areas of growth for the industry will come from low-volatility tokens known as stable coins and so-called security tokens, digital contracts that represent ownership of assets such as real estate or stocks.”

Given the level of innovation, security and digital functionality instilled by the technology of cryptocurrency, the industry of coins as a whole has a established a precedent that is going to be difficult to fully do away with. Merchants who continue to be rebuffed by the lack of price protection and are looking for a more stable form of Bitcoin to transact in will find more benefit in the less-volatile nature of stablecoins.

Price-stable coins, such as Tether’s popular yet controversial USDT, allow both merchants and consumers to transact in crypto without being exposed to the severe price volatility that has characterized the market throughout 2018. While some, particularly investors looking to trade and speculate on crypto, will find the lack of price appreciation or market-driven value a drawback, the majority may find stablecoins more palatable for everyday use–which is the type of adoption that could set cryptocurrency back on the road to greater acceptance.

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Markets Fail to Hold Yesterday’s Gains, Bitcoin Trades Below $3,500

Crypto markets have failed to hold on to gains from Dec. 9, with Bitcoin trading below $3,500 again.

Monday, Dec. 10: Crypto markets have failed to hold another recovery attempt, with nearly all top 20 coins by market capitalization in the red as of press time.

After a slight bump yesterday, Dec. 9, with Bitcoin (BTC) seeing its price grow from around $3,400 to more than $3,600, markets are seeing another decline as losses over the 24-hour period for some major coins reach more than 9 percent, according to CoinMarketCap.

Market visualization from Coin360

Market visualization from Coin360

The top cryptocurrency Bitcoin is down by 4.59 percent, trading at $3,474 at press time. As noted earlier today, the Bitcoin volatility index has recently spiked threefold on the month, following a period of price stability.

Exactly one year ago, on Dec. 10, 2017, the price of Bitcoin was $17,102 per coin, almost 80 percent higher than the price of Bitcoin today. Bitcoin’s market share index is 55 percent, down from 62.4 percent exactly one year ago, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin all-time price chart. Source: CoinMarketCap

Bitcoin all-time price chart. Source: CoinMarketCap

The second cryptocurrency by market cap, Ripple (XRP), is seeing more losses today, down almost 5 percent over the past 24 hours and trading at $0.301 at press time.

XRP 7-day price chart. Source: CoinMarketCap

XRP 7-day price chart. Source: CoinMarketCap

After dropping below the $100 price point on Dec. 6, major altcoin Ethereum (ETH) has dipped to as low as $90 per coin earlier today. The altcoin is trading at $90.99 at press time, down almost 6 percent over the 24-hour period.

Dash is seeing the biggest losses among the top 20 coins at press time, with its price down 9.58 percent, and trading at $68.14.

Total market capitalization is $110 billion at press time, down from $115 billion at the beginning of the day. Daily trade volume is $13 billion at press time.

Total market capitalization 7-day chart. Source: CoinMarketCap

Total market capitalization 7-day chart. Source: CoinMarketCap

Recently, the Indian government reportedly suggested new regulations to entirely ban cryptocurrencies in the country. According to anonymous sources, a government panel “has categorically said” that the crypto operations should be considered illegal and monitored by India’s central banking institution the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

While India may soon join the list of anti-crypto countries like China, some European countries have taken a more crypto-friendly regulatory approach. The British Parliament is purportedly considering allowing payments to local authorities and utility providers with Bitcoin. In late November, Liechtenstein authorities granted a license to Cryptoassets Exchange (LCX) to operate as a fully regulated blockchain ecosystem.

Meanwhile, the crypto industry’s mining sector continues to struggle, with China-based mining giant Bitmain reportedly closing its development center in Israel, as well as laying off local staff.

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Bitcoin Volatility More than Triples on the Month Amid Falling Crypto Prices

According to the Bitcoin Volatility Index as of yesterday, Dec. 9, volatility levels on the BTC-USD market have risen three-fold on the month.

With all eyes on the crypto market mayhem and Bitcoin’s new year-to-date lows, the cryptocurrency’s soaring volatility levels remain under reported. According to the Bitcoin (BTC) Volatility Index as of yesterday, Dec. 9, volatility levels on the BTC-USD market have risen three-fold on the month.

BTC-USD Volatility Index 30-Day Chart

BTC-USD Volatility Index 30-Day Chart, Nov. 9 – Dec. 9. Source: buybitcoinworldwide

The most recent available data for Dec. 9 indicates that BTC-USD volatility hit 5.53 percent, as compared with 1.57 percent on Nov. 9 at the start of the 30-day Volatility Index. As of Nov. 19, volatility has been on a consistent ascent, from 2 percent to 4.53 percent one week later, and then upwards to break above 5 percent on Nov. 29.

According to the BTC-USD chart for the preceding 30 days — between Oct. 9 and Nov. 9 —  volatility did not rise above 2.06 percent at any point, remaining closer to 1.5-1.7 percent for the majority of the period.

BTC-USD Volatility Index 30-Day Chart

BTC-USD Volatility Index 30-Day Chart, Oct. 9 – Nov. 9. Source: buybitcoinworldwide

On the BTC-USD 6-month volatility chart, the trend shows a jagged but consistent decrease in volatility as of mid-August — from a six-month high of 3.84 percent in mid-August down to a low of just 0.73 percent in mid-November — before the exponential rise in recent weeks.

BTC-USD Volatility Index 1-year Chart

BTC-USD Volatility Index 1-year Chart, Dec. 9 2017 – Dec. 9 2018. Source: buybitcoinworldwide

The last time volatility was at a similar level this year was in mid-March, when Bitcoin was trading around $8,771 (Mar. 11), according to CoinMarketCap historical data.

As previously reported, Bitcoin achieved a 17-month low volatility rate in early October, drawing considerable attention from the crypto community, and even the short-lived joke the asset had transpired to become “the ultimate stablecoin.”

As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at $3,524, up 1.5 percent on the day and down around 16 and 45 percent on the week and month respectively, according to Cointelegraph’s Bitcoin Price Index.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC/USD Accumulating as VanEck Subsidiary Work on “Transparency”

Latest Bitcoin News

Of course, price is not the only metric of interest as far as Bitcoin is concerned. Adoption rate and infrastructure development is of interest. Though the coin is meant to by-pass third parties as regulators, we cannot discount the role of regulators and their constant talk of investor protection.

Other jurisdictions might be open but the community is closely watching if the US SEC shall proceed and approve the much-anticipated Bitcoin ETF come Feb 27, 2019. That’s two and a half months from now and before then, bears seem to have an upper hand especially when we take a top-down approach.

Read: BTCC Co-Founder Lee Hints At $333,000 Bitcoin (BTC) Prediction For 2021

From the look of things, we can only guess the route that SEC might take and considering more banks are showing their interest in the space, we can only speculate that they might just give the VanEck Bitcoin ETF a pass.

Earlier, the SEC cited transparency saying the market was prone for manipulations and various stakeholders are now working on ensuring complete openness. A few days ago, a Frankfurt based company with relations to VanEck did launch MVIS Bitcoin US OTC Spot Index (MVBTCO).

Also Read: Bitcoin Price Prediction Gone Wrong: $1M Options Call To Be Purged

The index core objective is to promote transparency and to that end it draws its price feeds from Cumberland, Circle Trade and Genesis Trading. Most of the time institutions trade through liquid OTC firms and this index is a reliable benchmark for their investment.

BTC/USD Price Analysis

BTC/USD Price Analysis

There are hints of BTC demand in lower time frames and in the last day, BTC/USD is up 1.7 percent. This is modest to say the least and that means bears are still in control. On a weekly basis, BTC/USD is down 15 percent but considering events of the last few days, bears appear to be slowing down and range bound in lower time frames. Clear floors are at $3280.

Trend: Bearish, Momentum Fading

Aside from the negative sloping trend line connecting highs of the last few weeks, losses of the last few weeks are a reliable indicator of trend. But, even as bears threaten to drive prices lower, BTC demand is increasing in lower time frames. In the 4HR chart, prices are ranging within a tight $500 range with clear resistance and support at $3,800 and $3,280.

Volumes: Bullish, Increasing

What we have in this time frames are a series of higher highs with floors at $3,280 as BTC/USD range horizontally. Unless otherwise there are gains above $3,800 resistance, bears are in control but we are rooting for bulls thanks to standout bull bars of the last two days. Dec 7–22k versus 11k average by 1900 HRs, Dec 8—17k versus 8k 2300 HRs bar and Dec 9—7k versus 5k average bull bars are of interest as far as BTC/USD price analysis is concerned.  Notice that even from an effort versus result point of view, prices are still trending inside Dec 8 bull bar. For buyers to be in charge, then bulls must thrust prices above $3,810. Thereafter in a bull breakout trade, traders can buy on dips or at spot with first targets at $4,500 with stops at Dec 9 lows at around $3,500.

Candlestick Formation: Breakout Trade, Range

Clearly, BTC/USD is within a bear breakout trade but ranging as aforementioned. But, for bulls to be in charge then we must see high volumes gains printing above Nov lows of $3,800. This move will invalidate the bear breakout pattern of Dec 6. However, if prices fail to recover printing below Dec 9 lows then we shall have a retest and odds are BTC might test $3,280—or lower by the end of the week.

Conclusion

From candlestick arrangement, bulls might recover above $3,800. As such, our BTC/USD trade plan will be as follows:

Buy Trigger: $3,800—Dec 8 Highs

Stops: $3,500—Dec 9 Lows

First Targets: $4,500

All Charts courtesy of Trading View.

This is not Investment Advice. Do you own Research.

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Bitcoin Price Prediction Gone Wrong: $1M Options Call To Be Purged

$50,000 Per Bitcoin (BTC) Forecast Goes Wrong Amid Bear Market

One year ago, amid the peak of 2017’s monumental cryptocurrency bubble, in which everyone and their dog were incessantly discussing Bitcoin, BlockTower Capital, a juggernaut in the crypto investment realm, made a ludicrous bet on the future value of BTC.

This, for those who aren’t in the loop, was the decision to create a $1 million options contract on LedgerX, a CFTC-regulated cryptocurrency platform, that would reportedly fork out $29 million to BlockTower if BTC hit $50,000 by 2018’s end. In other words, if BTC somehow manages to hold above $50,000 on December 28th, BlockTower will see a thirty-fold profit fly its way.

However, according to a recent report from Bloomberg, and as made clear by crypto’s tumult, BlockTower’s ante might not end well, especially as the vehicle’s expiry date rapidly approaches. In fact, for the $1 million options call to be saved from impending doom, BTC will need to rally by upwards of 1,400% in just three weeks, a near-impossibility for any asset, even in an industry as nascent, yet promising as cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies.

Still, Ari Paul, a managing partner at the America-based BlockTower, told CNBC in December 2017, just days after the creation of the bet, that he purchased the contract while liquidating his firm’s BTC stash. The former University of Chicago endowment manager then explained that the surprising call allowed BlockTower to secure profits, mitigate risk in a market drawdown, and have a potential to score big if BTC surpasses 50k, clearly accentuating the fact that if the options didn’t strike, he wouldn’t be (financially nor emotionally) devastated.

He echoed this sentiment in a tweetstorm made in late-September, in which he stated that “there’s no shame in losing trades,” before accentuating that risk management was a key factor in the creation of the $50,000/BTC by EOY 2018 options call.

BlockTower Still Bullish On Crypto

Although BlockTower’s ambitious wager on the short-term fluctuation of Bitcoin’s value is likely to go awry in a few week’s time, the firm, or at least some of its representatives, are still undoubtedly bullish on crypto.

Speaking with CNBC’s Fast Money segment, Michael Bucella, a partner at the crypto-focused investment firm, did his best to break down the current state of the Bitcoin market, and what’s in its short to mid-term scopes.

Noting that crypto’s bear cycle isn’t as perilous as it seems, Bucella, a former executive at Goldman Sachs‘ Canada branch, drew attention to his theory regarding the interplay between “strong hands” and “weak hands,” the two overarching types of cryptocurrency investors. The BlockTower partner noted that while it would be accurate to assume that weak hands, also known as speculators, are liquidating their holdings to diehards (strong hands), the latter group isn’t rushing to on-ramp free capital.

He explained that crypto’s recent liquidity dry spell, along with market volatility, can be chalked up to the hesitance from strong hands to bulk-buy Bitcoin. Although this statement may seem bearish in and of itself, Bucella added that crypto’s near-year-long “distress cycle” is presumably coming to its culmination, echoing analysts’ cries that the bottom is almost in.

Bucella, while reluctant to forecast where the looming Bitcoin bottom will hit, added that when BTC finds a floor, whether it be at $2,000, $3,000 or otherwise, opportunities to scoop up the asset at low prices will be rather scant.

And in the end, the BlockTower partner explained that the “smartest money” continues to foray into this industry, whether it be the endowments of MIT, Harvard, Stanford, or the countless institutional players that have overtly expressed interest into purchasing cryptocurrencies. Keeping this thought process in mind, Bucella noted that even purchasing BTC at current prices could be a bargain bin deal, especially from a multi-year perspective.

Title Image Courtesy of Alex on Unsplash

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Bloomberg Opinion Bitcoin Price Prediction: More FUD for 2019

Bitcoin (BTC), Cryptocurrency–While the crypto markets see a slight reversal in pricing to round out the final week of December, with Bitcoin creeping closer to $3700 after hitting a relative low earlier in the week, predictions on the outlook of the industry for 2019 continue to sour investors.

Last week, as reported by EWN, billionaire crypto investor Mike Novogratz lamented the state of the cryptocurrency markets throughout 2018, claiming in a conference call that,

“It’s been a horrible bear market in tokens. There’s plenty of reason to be depressed.”

However, Novogratz qualified his statement with some positive spin, reminding investors that coin prices may be down but adoption and general acceptance for crypto and blockchain has been on the rise throughout the year. Despite his crypto investment firm Galaxy Digital Holdings posting over $130 million in losses through 2018’s bear cycle, Novogratz remains confident in cryptocurrency extending into 2019 and beyond,

“I fundamentally think you’re going to see big adaption in 2019, 2020. Lots of the items in the digital world, the e-gaming space, are low value items so I think people will be more comfortable participating in blockchain. We’re making big investments in that area.”

While Novogratz, a long time Bitcoin bull and supporter for cryptocurrency, remains hopeful for a market recovery into next year, traditional financial outlets have fond more reason to be cynical. In a year end, opinion-based review for 2019 predictions, Bloomberg opinion column has struck a chord in crypto investors by publishing more of the FUD that has become part and parcel among mainstream publications.

Rounding out the top of the list for “egregious predictions of 2018,” the opinion piece by Barry Ritholtz lambasts Bitcoin and the litany of assumptions that were made at the start of the year in the midst of a bull run,

“The spectrum of predictions ran from the sublime to the criminally negligent to the utterly insane. It got so bad that a website was set up to track all of the Bitcoin prophesies.”

The article continues on to call out Fundstrat’s Tom Lee and the aforementioned Mike Novogratz for their predictions throughout the year,

“Fundstrat’s Tom Lee’s 2018 forecast for $25,000 Bitcoin was reduced last month to $15,000 by year-end. (The cryptocurrency recently traded at about $3,650.) As foolish as that sounds, it was modest compared to the rest of the asylum. Michael Novogratz forecast that ‘$40,000 was possible by the end of 2018.’”

While Bitcoin continues to trade close to a relative low for the year, with the digital asset slipping from near $20,000 in December 2017 to $3600 as of writing, the schadenfreude for BTC and cryptocurrency in general is mounting. From a combination of FOMO and “I told you so,” traditional finance analysts are lining up to cast stones at the number one cryptocurrency by market cap, despite failing to predict a similarly bullish run for the coin just a year ago.

Investors, still reeling from the losses of 2018’s ongoing bear cycle, have little to be excited for as we enter the final month of the year. However, they have managed to weather the storm of Bitcoin hate and claims of BTC “being dead,” which has led to the creation of websites tracking the obituaries for the coin. Time will tell if the current crop of predictions for the demise of Bitcoin will be added to the heap.

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Bitcoin, Ripple, Ethereum, Stellar, Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin SV, EOS, Litecoin, TRON, Cardano: Price Analysis, Dec. 7

Markets are down following more delays on a Bitcoin ETF decision from the U.S. SEC. Let’s consult the charts and see how top coins are faring.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.

The selling in cryptocurrencies dragged the total market capitalization down to about $106 billion on Dec. 7. The crypto market has lost more than 87 percent of its value from the high achieved in late 2017.

The latest leg of selling gained traction on the news that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has delayed its decision on Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) until Feb. 27 of next year.

Based on the performance of the Directional Movement Index and the Average Directional Index, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone expects Bitcoin to drop to $1,500.

The fall has scared away most retail investors. Nevertheless, crypto-focused institutional asset manager Morgan Creek Digital believes that its Digital Asset Index Fund — a basket of ten major crypto assets — will offer better returns than the SPX over the next 10 years, starting from Jan. 1, 2019. Morgan Creek Digital is ready to wager a $1 million bet on their forecast.

The bear market has been good for the stablecoin Tether, which continues to climb the ladder in terms of market capitalization. It is now sitting at the sixth position, threatening to break into the top five if the selling continues.

As Bitcoin SV, which has recently hard forked off from Bitcoin Cash (BCH), has a few days of trading behind it, we shall introduce it in our analysis from today onward.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin has plunged to a new year-to-date low, but the decline is still not showing any signs of slowing down. The previous low of $3,620.26 did not offer any support, which demonstrates a lack of buying at the current levels. We expect the $3,000—$3,500 zone to act as a stronger support.

BTC/USD

However, if the BTC/USD pair dips below $3,000, the fall can extend to $2,416.52, which is the pattern target following the break down from the pennant.

The current situation is opposite to last year when traders were expecting the price to skyrocket. Now, most believe that digital currencies are doomed. We believe that the selling has been overdone, and a pullback should be around the corner.

Still, we want to see evidence of strong buying at some support before initiating fresh long positions. Our positions suggested earlier were closed at $3,800 and $3,500.

The lower the cryptocurrency falls, the closer it gets to the bottom. Therefore, we suggest traders be ready to initiate long positions upon the signs of a probable bottom. Unlike on previous occasions, when we had proposed using only a portion of the usual position size, this time we shall recommend using the normal position size. The risk-reward is getting attractive at these levels.

XRP/USD

Ripple (XRP) is still above its year-to-date low, but the price is fast approaching those levels. Currently, the price is at the support line of the descending channel, which is likely to hold.

XRP/USD

A bounce from the current level will face resistance at $0.33108, and above that at the 20-day EMA. Conversely, if the bears break below the support, a retest of $0.24508 is probable.

We continue to like the XRP/USD pair because it has been outperforming a number of top digital currencies. Therefore, we suggest traders hold their long positions. We shall propose adding more when the pair turns around.

ETH/USD

Ethereum plummeted to double digits on Nov. 6, and has not recovered yet. Currently, it is trying to bounce off the support at $83. We expect some buying in this area.

ETH/USD

If the bears maintain their selling pressure, the ETH/USD pair can drop to the next support at $66. The selling has been so intense that the RSI could not even rise above the oversold zone, from the deeply oversold levels.

The first sign of a likely change in trend will be when the price sustains above $100. Until then, it is best to wait and watch. We anticipate a strong pullback within the next few days.

XLM/USD

After a successful defense of $0.184, the bears have renewed their selling, pushing Stellar to new year-to-date lows.

XLM/USD

The next level to watch on the downside is $0.08. Though we anticipate the bulls to offer some buying support at this level, it is difficult to pinpoint the bottom.

The XLM/USD pair will signal a likely bottom when it sustains above the downtrend line. We expect it to consolidate for a few days before starting a new uptrend. The traders should wait for a trend reversal before buying.

BCH/USD

Bitcoin Cash continues its journey southwards. Within three days, the price slumped from an intraday high of $157.58 on Dec. 4 to an intraday low of $104.99 on Dec. 7. Currently, the bears are trying to sustain below the psychological support of $100, while the bulls want to maintain the price in triple digits.

BCH/USD

If the bears succeed in holding the BCH/USD pair below $100, the next support on the downside is $91.78. The RSI has fallen to about 15 levels, which shows that the selling has been overdone and a pullback can start anytime. However, the traders should wait for the decline to end before jumping in. Until then, it is best to remain on the sidelines.

BSV/USD

While the other cryptocurrencies are sliding to new lows, Bitcoin SV is bucking the trend. It is attempting to turn around and move up.

BSV/USD

The BSV/USD pair is currently in a range of $80.352—$123.98. A break out of the range gives it a pattern target of $167.608, with a minor resistance at $150.47.

If the bears defend the overhead resistance at $123.98, the digital currency might consolidate for a few more days. Short-term traders can look for buying opportunities as long as the price stays above $80.352. As the overall sentiment is negative, we suggest traders keep the position size at about 40 percent of usual.

EOS/USD

EOS is under a strong bear attack. The fall has been so severe that the support level of $2 could not even hold for a day. The next support on the downside is $1.5257. However, with this kind of incessant selling, it is difficult to predict where the decline will end.

EOS/USD

When the digital currency makes new lows on a daily basis, the new money sitting on the sidelines doesn’t want to come in. On the contrary, the traders who have been long since higher levels, dump their positions, as they are not able to take the losses. This vicious cycle usually ends in a capitulation.

After an extended decline, the price becomes so attractive that a few aggressive bulls start bottom fishing. We shall wait for signs of buying in the EOS/USD pair before turning positive. Until then, it is best to wait and watch.

LTC/USD

The bears have broken down of another critical support at $28. Litecoin can now slide to $20, where we expect buying to emerge.

LTC/USD

The trend is clearly in favor of the bears, as the bulls are unable to hold the price in a range.

The bulls will try to push the price back into the range, whereas the bears will try to maintain the downward momentum. If the bulls succeed, the LTC/USD pair might consolidate for a few days, before starting a new uptrend. Traders should wait for a new buy setup to form before initiating any new positions.

TRX/USD

TRON has broken down of the immediate support of $0.01339050. Its next support is at the Nov. 25 low of $0.01089965. The moving averages are trending down, and the RSI is in the negative zone, which shows that the sellers have an upper hand.

TRX/USD

However, we like the way the TRX/USD pair has not broken down to new year-to-date lows. This shows that the owners are not keen to sell at the current levels, and the buyers are supporting it just above the recent lows.

If the bulls defend $0.01089965, the digital currency might enter a basing formation. We shall wait for a few days for it to confirm a bottom before suggesting a trade in it.

ADA/USD

The downtrend in Cardano has resumed, as the pair makes new year-to-date lows. The next support on the downside is at $0.025954.

ADA/USD

The falling moving averages and the RSI in the oversold zone will continue to pressure the ADA/USD pair. The first sign of a change in trend will be when the price breaks out of the 20-day EMA and the top of the tight range at $0.45624. Until then, every pullback will be sold into. We suggest traders wait for the trend to reverse before initiating any long positions.

Market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange. Charts for analysis are provided by TradingView.