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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Volatility Jumps But Still Directionless

Bitcoin spiked strongly in both directions over the past few hours as volatility ticked higher but failed to put price in a clear course. It is still trading within the symmetrical triangle consolidation previously highlighted but might be showing some upside.

The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA, though, so the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, support is more likely to break than to hold. In that case, price could fall by the same height as the triangle, which spans $3,850 to around $4,050.

However, price is trading above the 100 SMA as an early indication of bullish momentum and might be poised to break past the 200 SMA dynamic resistance as well. Bitcoin appears to have closed above the triangle top but it could be too soon to see if this is not a fake out.

RSI is in the overbought zone and looks ready to move south to signal a pickup in selling pressure. There’s plenty of room for the oscillator to head lower before reaching the oversold region, which means that there’s plenty of time for sellers to stay in control.

Meanwhile, stochastic is just on the move up to show that bullish momentum is in play and could stay on until overbought conditions are seen. This oscillator has some ground to cover before indicating overbought conditions or exhaustion among sellers.

Technical indicators have been giving mixed signals and analysts have mixed forecasts as well. Tom Lee of Fundstrat maintains that bitcoin bulls will be back this year while others point to similarities between current price action and the 2018 bitcoin crash.

Factors that could lead to a bitcoin rally include the Bakkt platform and Fidelity’s institutional offering, but so far traders are still holding out for actual updates on how these are turning out. Any evidence of a surge in volumes could draw bulls back in, but there is still a lot of hesitation evident in the markets these days.

Others noted that bitcoin has been repeating its price action in November last year where bitcoin was stuck around the $6,400 mark before making a nearly non-stop slide to the $3,200 area.

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Breaking: MtGox Founder Mark Karpeles Found Guilty. Sentenced to 2.5 Years in Prision

Mark Karpelès, Chief Executive Officer of the defunct bitcoin exchange MtGox, has been sentenced by a Japanese court to two years and six months in prison after concluding the trial against him for the infamous MtGox scandal.

Mark Karpeles. CEO Mt.Gox. courtesy: Daily Dot

The CEO of Mt. Gox claimed throughout the entire trial that he was completely innocent. With this sentence, his image is left partially clean as the court only found him guilty of tampering with records by the Tokyo District Court.

The court found him not guilty of the remaining charges which could bring his sentence up to ten years. The panel of judges determined that Karpeles had not committed embezzlement or violated the Company law.

The outcome of the trial is a victory for Karpeles on a personal level; however, it does not mean that the story is over. The proceedings related to MtGox’s bankruptcy continue regardless of the fate of its CEO.

According to the Financial Times, Mark Karpeles showed his respect to the judges, and although he did not make any statements, his humble reaction seems to indicate his satisfaction with the results of this legal challenge:

“Mr. Karpelès, wearing a dark suit, bowed to the judge as he entered the courtroom.”

The Financial Times, Mr. Karpeles’ prison sentence “was suspended for four years,” according to a pooled press report.

To date, there have been no reactions from Mr. Karpeles or any of his spokespersons or the Exchange’s. It is hoped that more information on the case will be available in the next few hours.
According to BNNBloomberg, Mr. Karpeles’ stay in Japan was not at all pleasant:

 “Karpeles has said he was interrogated for months without a lawyer and bullied into signing a confession, a “nightmare” process during which he lost 77 pounds over 11 months.

The MtGox case represents the strongest scandal in the history of crypto. At the time, the exchange controlled more than 70% of the total volume of trading of crypto coins worldwide, according to Wikipedia.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Reversal Still Possible?

Bitcoin recently broke below a short-term rising trend line to signal that a reversal from the uptrend is due. Price has pulled up for a retest and the broken support is holding as resistance, possibly sending price down to the next downside targets.

Applying the Fib extension tool on the breakdown shows where bears could take bitcoin next. The 50% level lines up with the swing low around $3,800 which might be the first take-profit point. Stronger selling pressure could take bitcoin to the 61.8% level at $3,737.50 or the 78.6% level at $3,649.80. The full extension is at $3,538.0.

The 100 SMA is still above the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. In other words, the climb is more likely to gain traction than to reverse. Price is hovering at the 100 SMA dynamic support and might be due to test or break the 200 SMA as an early signal that bears have the upper hand. The gap between the indicators is also narrowing to reflect weaker bullish momentum.

RSI seems to be on the move down to indicate that selling pressure is still in play and could be enough to drag bitcoin down to the next downside targets. However, the oscillator is also turning slightly higher to signal that buyers might put up a fight.

Meanwhile, stochastic is on its way up to show that buyers are in control and could keep the uptrend going. This oscillator has just crossed the center line to reflect a pickup in bullish pressure and has some ground to cover before reaching the overbought zone.

Some resurfacing concerns on bitcoin appear to be keeping a lid on prices, and it doesn’t help that a few more analysts are calling more declines in price. Bitcoin ATMs in Calgary posted losses after security attacks that led to $200K worth of coins being stolen.

For many, this indicates how hackers are also advancing in the complexity of their schemes, throwing attention to security flaws that might still need to be addressed before bitcoin is adopted by the mainstream market.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Near-Term Upside Targets

Bitcoin is bouncing off a short-term area of interest visible on the 1-hour time frame. This could keep it on track towards testing the next upside targets marked by the Fibonacci extension tool.

Price is closing in on the 38.2% level at the $4,000 major psychological mark, which might serve as a take-profit point again. The 50% level lines up with the swing high around $4,040 that might also lead cautious buyers to book profits. Stronger bullish momentum could take price up to the 61.8% Fib at $4,062.80 or the 78.6% level at $4,100. The full extension is located at $4,168.70.

The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA for now to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. However, the gap between the indicators has narrowed enough to signal weaker bullish momentum and a potential bearish crossover. In that case, price might dip below the area of interest again and head back to the lows at $3,770.

RSI appears to be heading south even without hitting the overbought zone, indicating that sellers are eager to return. Stochastic is also heading lower to indicate that bears have the upper hand and could take bitcoin further south, especially since the oscillator has plenty of ground to cover before reaching oversold levels.

Bitcoin traders appear to be holding out for major catalysts that could confirm that the bull run isn’t over, as price would likely to clear several upside barriers before drawing more buying interest.

For now, the focus seems to be on the drop in volumes that is weighing on volatility. According to CoinMetrics.io, the decline in bitcoin transaction count has coincided with the end of VeriBlock’s testnet phase. This startup accounts for 25-40% of bitcoin transactions, which is a pretty hefty amount for its size. Testing ended on March 4 and the daily transaction count dropped 21% then.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Bears Defend Resistance Again

Bitcoin has formed lower highs and higher lows to trade inside a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily time frame. Price has once again been rejected at the triangle resistance, so it might be setting its sights back on support.

The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA on this daily time frame to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside. This confirms that resistance is more likely to hold than to break or that support is more likely to break than to hold. However, the 100 SMA lines up with the triangle bottom around the $3,800 level to add to its strength as support.

Still, a break below this area could spur a drop that lasts by the same height as the chart formation, which spans $3,200 to around $4,300. Similarly a  break above the resistance around the $4,000 major psychological mark could be followed by a climb of the same size.

RSI is pointing down to indicate that sellers have the upper hand, which might be enough momentum to drag bitcoin back to support. On the other hand, stochastic is pointing up to signal that buyers have some energy left to make another attempt at breaking above the triangle top.

Bitcoin analysts are starting to warn about further declines in the cryptocurrency price as the $4,000 barrier seems a tough one to crack. Some are predicting that it could go as low as $1,850 before having a chance of bottoming out and attracting stronger volumes.

However, it’s important to note that Fidelity might be working closer to launching its institutional platform anytime this month, which might draw big inflows from banks and funds. Further delays, however, could weigh on the already feeble optimism in the industry and spur a larger wave of profit-taking.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Is Venezuela’s “Unplugging” Affecting Prices?

Latest Bitcoin News

The political quagmire in Venezuela is now turning into an inconvenience, a crisis—and ordinary citizens are feeling the pinch. Reliable news sources reveal that the once prosperous oil-rich state is now on the brink. After the Bolivar plunged, the government decided to launch their own remittance service, the Ramessa, with Bitcoin and Litecoin as accepted coins.

Read: With Highest Crypto Volume Since 2017, Analyst Awaits Bitcoin (BTC) Bounce

While it did steel prices–now that cryptos are the only safe haven for citizens in the ravaged country, the nationwide electricity blackout from Thursday meant that less than four percent of the country had access to the internet. According to reports by NetBlocks Group, a UK based internet watchdog group, 96 percent of Venezuelans were offline by Thursday.

Good news is, the number has since improved, dropping to 80 percent according to their observation by Mar 10:

Coincidentally, this comes a month after Russia government said they will trial a cyber-defensive measure and see how effective their defenses are if they cut off their country’s internet from the rest of the world. Complete with a Digital Economy National Program that demands Russian providers to remain functional in the event of a cut-off, this is a strategic but a worrying, isolation trend similar to that of China.

Also Read: Bitcoin Fundamentals Boom Amid Crypto Winter: Why Hasn’t BTC Caught Up?

As a digital coin, internet outages translate to cessation and therefore an inevitable drop of demand that automatically affect crypto prices now that Venezuelans are heavily reliant on Bitcoin and other crypto assets as a medium of exchange and store of value.

BTC/USD Price Analysis

Bitcoin

Investor expectations are high but Bitcoin prices are struggling. At the time of press, prices are flat-lining as BTC trend within a tight range. It is up 1.9 percent from last week’s close but as long as there is no confirmation of Mar 5 bulls bar and therefore no reversal of Feb 24 losses, there is a lot to be desired from Bitcoin (BTC) price action.

All the same, we shall maintain a bullish outlook on the world’s valuable coin. Once prices rally above our main resistance line, $4,500, aggressive traders should take advantage of under-valuations in lower time frames and load with ultimate targets at $6,000.

Bitcoin

Trend and Candlestick Formation: Bullish, Bear Breakout

From a top-down approach, sellers are clearly in charge. In a bear breakout pattern, $4,500 is our immediate resistance level with the main breakout and liquidation level at $6,000. Therefore, while buyers have an upper hand in the short-term, there should be a comprehensive break and close above $4,500 and for a complete retest, rally to $6,000.

Before then, our trade assertions must be met and that means, first a close above this tight $1,300 with limits at $4,500 and $3,200. Any drop below $3,500 pours cold water on our trade plan exposing BTC to a possible drop to $3,200.

Volumes: Bullish

There are two counter bars with equally high volumes. Feb 18—37k and Feb 24 double bar bear reversal pattern with 36k. Both are important in our analysis. Thing is, for buyers to be in charge then there must be reversal of Feb 24 bears complete with above average volumes complementing Feb 18 bull bar and printing above 37k. Similarly, any break below $3,500 should have high transactional volumes above 36k of Feb 24.

All charts courtesy of Trading View—BitFinex

This is not Investment Advice. Do your Research.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Buyers to Defend Channel Floor?

Bitcoin is still trending higher as it forms higher lows and higher highs inside an ascending channel. Price is still hovering close to support, though, so traders might be deciding on a bounce or a break.

A bounce could take bitcoin back to the channel top and latest highs around $4,300 while a break lower could spur a reversal from the uptrend. The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA, though, so the path of least resistance is to the upside. In other words, support is more likely to hold than to to break. These moving averages are also close to the channel support to add to its strength as a floor.

RSI is heading down to signal that selling pressure is in play. This could be enough to spur a break below the $3,800 area and sustain a slide to the next area of interest. Stochastic is also heading lower after reaching the overbought zone, indicating that buyers are exhausted and willing to let sellers take over.

Bitcoin is struggling to sustain its recent rallies as buyers are waiting to get more developments in the industry. There is still some positive sentiment and anticipation for institutional investment but these expectations will have to be met with actual updates in order to give the rallies any traction.

The lack of any significant updates this week could force bulls to give way to bears and spur deeper pullbacks to longer-term inflection points. Forecasts seem more mixed these days, with some maintaining the near-term $5,000 estimate and others predicting that it could fall as low as $1,850 if support levels break.

Reports also revealed that revenues of bitcoin miners have fallen to new lows in February, down 10% since the start of the year. The latest research of Diar also reports:

“Bitmain’s latest flagship miner that began shipping at the start of the year, the s15, has already sold out twice-over with the next batch set for shipment in April.”

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Another Attempt at Neckline Break?

Bitcoin might be making another attempt to confirm the long-term double bottom reversal pattern as it heads back to test the neckline resistance. A break higher could confirm that a climb of the same height as the chart formation might follow.

The 100 SMA is still below the longer-term 200 SMA on the daily time frame to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, the selloff is more likely to resume than to reverse. Still, price is moving above the 100 SMA as an early indicator of bullish pressure. The gap between the indicators is also slowly narrowing to reflect weakening selling pressure.

Price would need to clear the $4,300 barrier next to signal that an uptrend might be due. RSI seems to be turning back up and not inclined to keep sliding below the center line, so bullish pressure might be returning. Stochastic is heading up without reaching the oversold region also, indicating that buyers are eager to return.

Bitcoin might be drawing support from another set of bullish commentary as near-term support levels continue to be defended. Many are pointing to the end of “crypto winter” and the start of “crypto spring” as other coins are also seeing similar positive action, indicating that prices may have indeed bottomed out.

This sentiment is also supported by a handful of positive developments and a lot of anticipation for institutional investment. However, Mayne, a popular cryptocurrency analyst on Twitter, cautioned:

“$BTC found support at the yearly open and is now rejecting from the breaker I wanted to short at, ended up being impatient and shorting lower. Above the breaker, BTC looks good for $4200-$4400. If we reject and lose $3700 I wouldn’t want to be long anything.”

As it is, Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg suggested they might create their own digital asset on the social media platform.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Bounce or Break at Area of Interest?

Bitcoin is currently hovering at an area of interest at the middle of its range on the 1-hour time frame, still deciding whether to bounce to the top or head back to support.

The 100 SMA is crossing above the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. This suggests that the near-term resistance is more likely to break than to hold, sending bitcoin up to the highs near $4,300.

Then again, the moving averages might simply be oscillating to reflect range-bound action. Still, bitcoin is above both indicators, so these could keep holding as dynamic support levels near the area of interest. A break below this, however, could spur a drop to the range support around $3,770.

RSI is just making its way down from the overbought zone to indicate that selling pressure is returning. This could provide enough bearish momentum to take price below the range support and even a longer-term slide. Stochastic, on the other hand, is just making its way out of the oversold region to signal that bullish pressure is present and might even take price beyond the recent highs.

Bitcoin seemed to make a big retreat from the February rallies, but it is looking to be a major retracement that is now completed. Price could be due to test the nearby upside targets or resume the longer-term rebound.

Recall that several analysts have been calling a bottom in bitcoin so far this year, anticipating that the pickup in institutional interest spurred by the launch of Fidelity’s platform could be enough to shore prices higher.

However, the recent rally in bitcoin is being pinned on the strong climb in litecoin, which is having an overall positive effect on cryptocurrencies across the board lately.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Bulls Defend Area of Interest, Upside Targets

Bitcoin looks ready to resume its earlier rally as it found bullish energy at an area of interest or former resistance turned support. With that, price could set its sights back on the upside targets marked by the Fib extension tool.

The first target at the 38.2% Fib extension is at $4,110.2 then the 50% level is at $4,215. The swing high lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci extension at $4,321. Stronger bullish momentum could take bitcoin up to the 78.6% extension at $4,471.2 or the full extension at $4,662.3.

The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. In other words, the climb is more likely to gain traction than to reverse. Then again, the gap between the moving averages is narrowing to indicate that bullish momentum is fading. Still, price is above the 100 SMA as an indicator of bullish pressure.

RSI appears to be turning lower after a brief stay in the overbought zone. Turning lower could encourage sellers to return and push bitcoin back to the swing low at $3,400 or lower. Stochastic is still heading up but also testing the overbought zone to signal exhaustion among buyers.

Bitcoin struggled to sustain the bullish momentum throughout February which was seen to be spurred by an improvement in sentiment and upbeat forecasts. Still, there is a lot to look forward to, particularly the launch of Fidelity’s institutional platform that is widely expected to bring in big volumes from banks and funds.

Several analysts are still of the opinion that price is bottoming out, and it also helps that members of the tech industry have been optimistic about the long-term prospects of cryptocurrencies. Traders are likely holding out for concrete developments before piling on long positions from here.

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