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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Conversation Missing the Point

Bitcoin (BTC), Cryptocurrency–With the crypto markets continuing to slip into December, with Bitcoin and altcoins hitting their new relative low for the year, the tone surrounding the industry of cryptocurrency has made a decided shift towards the negative. While crypto, particularly the investment landscape, has become a punching bag throughout the year, with the bear market extending into the final month of 2018, the situation has never been seen as dire as what has transpired in the past several weeks.

Traditional, financial media outlets such as Bloomberg and CNBC have regularly covered the market shifts, but are now beginning to take an almost gleeful interest in the demise of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency. The language towards the digital asset has shifted from “I told you so” to personal attacks against investors, with the aggressors positioning themselves on a false pedestal of authority. However, while these outlets are justified in their criticism and reporting on the continued price fall for crypto, they ultimately contribute to the number one problem plaguing the industry at present: an incessant focus on price movement, price predictions and the 24-hour trading cycle of crypto–and the average investor and enthusiast is as much to blame.

Cryptocurrency is in free fall for the primary reason that expectations outpaced realistic performance, with the money being poured into the industry throughout 2017 and the beginning of this year being an exponential reflection of that disconnect. While many have found novelty in using Bitcoin as an alternative form for digital transactions, storage of value and other wealth safeguarding, the limitations of the technology failed to meet the anticipation of user needs.

When transactions fees and wait times for BTC soared in the first month of 2018, newcomers to crypto were left scratching their head over the hype they had bought into. The result was just one facet of uncertainty introduced into the market that led to the collapse, like a house of cards, that was built on a series of shaky propositions. For one, the media had inundated the public with stories of overnight millionaires–and billionaires–being minted by Bitcoin and cryptocurrency, a narrative that investors were all too eager to buy into with coin prices rising four-digit percentage points on the year.

Again, expectation and speculation created the bloated market conditions that in no way could have been reasonable for the present level of adoption and advancement for the technology. It would be akin to saying that pre-dot.com websites deserved the same stock valuation and outlook as today’s landscape for Google and Facebook.

However, the greatest failure on behalf of supporters of cryptocurrency came in the form of allowing the technology become hijacked by the emphasis on price. When Ethereum’s Vitalik Buterin made the claim that all centralized exchanges should burn in hell, he was in part criticizing an industry that is beholden to price speculation, driven through the activity of investors on exchange. Few care to delve into the depth of cryptocurrency, the layers to the technology, and the implications for the world that extend beyond “digital money.”

With Bitcoin having been declared dead hundreds of times before, it’s difficult for anyone to correctly predict that this is the ultimate end for the number one cryptocurrency by capitalization. However, if there is a path forward for cryptocurrency, it lies in not just a reset of market prices, but investor and user expectations, with an emphasis on building use for the technology that exceeds value.

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Tom Lee Claims Market is Wrong, Calls for Bitcoin to be Valued at $14,800

Bitcoin (BTC), Cryptocurrency–While some are calling for the final demise of Bitcoin, with the currency exhibiting price movement that would indicate the bubble has popped, long-time cryptocurrency bull Tom Lee claims that an irrational market is to blame for the falling price of BTC.

Compared to previous predictions, which have the currency falling to $2500 with little support to turn around the losses of November, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors Tom Lee finds the value of Bitcoin significantly lower than what it should be. In a note to investors published on Thursday, the advisor gave some surprising and hopeful news for those who left confused over the precipitous drop in BTC pricing throughout November–a month which culminated in the worst losses for Bitcoin since August 2011.

Lee, who has been a long time cryptocurrency advocate and Bitcoin bull, claims that the fair value for the number one cryptocurrency by market capitalization should be between $13,800 and $14,800. As apart of his analysis, he cites the large number of active wallet addresses, how often BTC is used by accounts and the deflationary supply of the currency all pointing to a much higher valuation than the current price of $3400.

While some continue to chide Lee for his predictions, particularly following his oft-remarked, bullish claim in May that Bitcoin would climb to $25,000 by the end of 2018–putting the price of the currency above its most recent all time high–he remains confident in the outlook for the industry and his own valuation. As opposed to a flaw in his analysis for the worth of Bitcoin, Lee blames an irrational market for creating the current state of cryptocurrency valuation, with other indicators such as adoption pointing to a higher value,

“Fair value is significantly higher than the current price of Bitcoin,” he wrote. “In fact, working backwards, to solve for the current price of Bitcoin, this implies crypto wallets should fall to 17 million from 50 million currently.”

Lee cites a similar argument made by analysts and supporters of cryptocurrency, that while market prices are falling the adoption and influence of the industry is expanding. Mike Novogratz, another Bitcoin bull and CEO of Galaxy Digital Holdings which is heavily invested in cryptocurrency, described a similar sentiment in a conference call to investors reported on by EWN at the beginning of the month. While Novogratz remarked that it had been a horrible year for token prices, including losses for Galaxy Digital which have exceeded $130 million in 2018, he stuck by a strong outlook for the industry in 2019 and beyond,

“I fundamentally think you’re going to see big adaption in 2019, 2020. Lots of the items in the digital world, the e-gaming space, are low value items so I think people will be more comfortable participating in blockchain. We’re making big investments in that area.”

With the potential for Bitcoin growth and cryptocurrency adoption still climbing in spite of falling prices, both Lee and Novogratz are hinting at a market turn that could happen unexpectedly. Similar to the crash in internet stocks that occurred prior to wide-scale dissemination for both Wall Street and Main Street, cryptocurrency could be in the latency phase as investors and users wait for improved development.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Are Bulls Back on Their Feet?

Bitcoin is creating a new ascending channel on its 1-hour time frame as it formed higher lows and higher highs since last week. Price is bouncing off support and may be aiming for the upside targets marked by the Fibonacci extension tool.

Price is already testing the 50% level at the mid-channel area of interest and if this keeps gains in check, another move to the channel bottom could be seen. Sustained bullish momentum could take bitcoin up to the 61.8% level near the $3,700 mark or the full extension at $3,847 that’s just past the channel top.

The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA, though, so the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, resistance is more likely to hold than to break or the downtrend is more likely to resume. Then again, the gap between the moving averages is narrowing to signal weakening selling pressure. A bullish crossover could draw more buyers in and even pave the way for a break past the channel resistance.

RSI is heading south after recently hitting the overbought zone, though, indicating that sellers are returning while buyers take a break. Stochastic is also moving lower so bitcoin could follow suit while bears have the upper hand. This oscillator is closing in on the oversold region, which suggests that sellers might start to feel exhausted soon.

Bitcoin bull Mike Novogratz insists that bitcoin won’t fall to the $80 level despite signs that the bear market could persist. In an interview with Bloomberg, he reiterated that bitcoin will become digital gold and that revolutions don’t happen overnight.

Meanwhile, Forbes analyst Clem Chambers shared a less upbeat view, warning that bitcoin could still fall to $2,500 in due time. He concluded:

“The end of this crash will look awful, the ends of crashes always do. That is yet to come but the next leg could be here.”

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Bullish Divergence & Potential Targets

Bitcoin is still in selloff mode but there are more signs of bullish exhaustion on the daily time frame. For one, RSI and stochastic have indicated oversold conditions and are starting to turn higher to reflect the return of bullish pressure.

To top it off, RSI has formed higher lows while bitcoin price made lower lows to hint that a rally may be in the works. Stochastic has also shown higher lows since the third week of November while price had lower lows then.

If a big bounce takes place, price could make it up to the area of interest around the falling trend line connecting the highs since August or the former support around the $6,000 handle. The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA, though, so the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, the downtrend is still more likely to resume than to reverse.

Also, the gap between the moving averages is widening to reflect increased bearish momentum. The area of interest or potential resistance is also between these moving averages, which could serve as dynamic inflection points.

Even with the seemingly unstoppable slide in bitcoin, big names in the industry are holding on to their optimistic expectations. For CEO of cryptocurrency merchant bank Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz, bitcoin is “digital gold” and will survive in the long run:

“I do believe Bitcoin is going to be digital gold. That means it’s the only one of the coins out there that gets to be a legal pyramid scheme — just like gold is.”

He further pointed out that revolutions don’t happen overnight, explaining:

“All the gold ever mined in the history of the world fits in an Olympic-size swimming pool. You’re out of your mind to think that pool’s worth $8 trillion. But it is because we say it is.”

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Bitcoin (BTC) ‘I Told You So’ At All Time High

Bitcoin (BTC), Cryptocurrency–Not much has changed in a year.

While the price of BTC has slipped precipitously since ending 2017 trading near $20,000, the industry of cryptocurrency has remained as polarizing as ever. Throughout the bullish run that characterized last year, economists, financial reporters and Wall Street moguls continued to point out the flaws of the number one cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Ranging from the dangers of deflationary currencies to the extreme price volatility of the crypto markets, Bitcoin had no shortage of detractors who attempted to steer away investors even during the height of price appreciation.

Rather than focusing on growth through adoption, educating a population on a novel technology or establishing legitimate uses that extending beyond “digital money,” the narrative surrounding Bitcoin and cryptocurrency became one of greed and confusion. The relentless media cycle at the end of 2017 fluctuated between arrogant perplexity and annoyed FOMO, with early crypto adopters being hailed as visionary innovators or just plain lucky depending who you asked. The water cooler conversation for crypto made an abrupt change from “What is Bitcoin?” to “How can I get rich?”

The end result, which should have been predictable from a standpoint of a nascent industry, was over-inflation of value and even greater expectations. The bull run to end 2017 and extend into the first weeks of January was built upon investors who felt fearless in their decisions, not taking the time to learn about Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or the extensive altcoin market–including a litany of ICOs that would prove disastrous over the year. A white paper and a promise was enough to drive billion dollar valuations, with most investors simply looking for the next coin of the day to get pumped on exchanges.

As opposed to the organic growth that most technology needs to establish itself in the mind of Main Street, Bitcoin became the unfortunate recipient of overextending expectations. Investors  bought into crypto with not just the expectation of asset-appreciation but ludicrous overnight wealth to be obtained. Few asked where the technology was at in terms of development, and why certain barriers to scale–such as transaction fees and speeds–would still be months and years away from being solved.

The market collapse that followed in January and February, extending into the final month of the year with Bitcoin and altcoins hitting their relative low, has brought out a host of schadenfreude, with nearly every economist and analyst waiting to cast stones at the industry of crypto and the investors who bought in during the fall. For most in the industry of crypto, the financial narrative is producing an ongoing annoyance, with Bitcoin having been proclaimed “dead” many times before. But the overtone being applied to the more recent articles on Bitcoin’s demise is one filled with glee over the failure.

While some take pleasure in painting Bitcoin as the greatest bubble in history that finally popped, it’s becoming increasingly hard to take serious the opinions of financial professionals and experts who are allowing their emotional sides color their analysis. Somehow, Bitcoin transformed into as much an ideology as a technology, one that detractors feel compelled to stamp down upon to the extent of being irrational.

If anything, that might be all the indication supporters of Bitcoin need to find continued hope in the future of the currency.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Bears Wrestle for Control

Bitcoin is trending lower inside a descending channel and appears to have already found a ceiling at the mid-channel area of interest. If sellers return at this point, the Fib extension tool on the pullback shows the next potential downside targets.

The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, the selloff is more likely to resume than to reverse. In addition, the 100 SMA recently held as resistance on the latest bounce and might continue to keep gains in check.

From here, bitcoin could slump back to the 38.2% Fib next or the 50% level closer to the swing low at $3,270. Stronger selling pressure could take it to the 61.8% level near the channel bottom at $3,150 or the 78.6% extension at the $3,000 major psychological level. The full extension is located at the $2,731 mark.

RSI appears to be heading lower to signal the presence of bearish momentum but is currently hesitating at middle ground, suggesting that there’s a chance buyers could return and push for a larger pullback to the channel top at $4,000. Stochastic is heading south also, so bitcoin might follow suit while sellers have the upper hand.

Analysts are worried that the inability of bitcoin to bust through nearby ceilings signals that the bear market is far from over. After all sellers are piling on at key levels and buyers are also quick to book profits off bounces, keeping the downtrend intact.

Traders continue to hold out for actual developments in the industry before reestablishing any large positions. Some still believe that a surge in institutional investment is due early next year and might be enough to revive volumes and price gains. Changpeng Zhao, chief executive of major global bitcoin and cryptocurrency exchange Binance, thinks Amazon could be the catalyst for the next bull run.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC/USD Accumulating as VanEck Subsidiary Work on “Transparency”

Latest Bitcoin News

Of course, price is not the only metric of interest as far as Bitcoin is concerned. Adoption rate and infrastructure development is of interest. Though the coin is meant to by-pass third parties as regulators, we cannot discount the role of regulators and their constant talk of investor protection.

Other jurisdictions might be open but the community is closely watching if the US SEC shall proceed and approve the much-anticipated Bitcoin ETF come Feb 27, 2019. That’s two and a half months from now and before then, bears seem to have an upper hand especially when we take a top-down approach.

Read: BTCC Co-Founder Lee Hints At $333,000 Bitcoin (BTC) Prediction For 2021

From the look of things, we can only guess the route that SEC might take and considering more banks are showing their interest in the space, we can only speculate that they might just give the VanEck Bitcoin ETF a pass.

Earlier, the SEC cited transparency saying the market was prone for manipulations and various stakeholders are now working on ensuring complete openness. A few days ago, a Frankfurt based company with relations to VanEck did launch MVIS Bitcoin US OTC Spot Index (MVBTCO).

Also Read: Bitcoin Price Prediction Gone Wrong: $1M Options Call To Be Purged

The index core objective is to promote transparency and to that end it draws its price feeds from Cumberland, Circle Trade and Genesis Trading. Most of the time institutions trade through liquid OTC firms and this index is a reliable benchmark for their investment.

BTC/USD Price Analysis

BTC/USD Price Analysis

There are hints of BTC demand in lower time frames and in the last day, BTC/USD is up 1.7 percent. This is modest to say the least and that means bears are still in control. On a weekly basis, BTC/USD is down 15 percent but considering events of the last few days, bears appear to be slowing down and range bound in lower time frames. Clear floors are at $3280.

Trend: Bearish, Momentum Fading

Aside from the negative sloping trend line connecting highs of the last few weeks, losses of the last few weeks are a reliable indicator of trend. But, even as bears threaten to drive prices lower, BTC demand is increasing in lower time frames. In the 4HR chart, prices are ranging within a tight $500 range with clear resistance and support at $3,800 and $3,280.

Volumes: Bullish, Increasing

What we have in this time frames are a series of higher highs with floors at $3,280 as BTC/USD range horizontally. Unless otherwise there are gains above $3,800 resistance, bears are in control but we are rooting for bulls thanks to standout bull bars of the last two days. Dec 7–22k versus 11k average by 1900 HRs, Dec 8—17k versus 8k 2300 HRs bar and Dec 9—7k versus 5k average bull bars are of interest as far as BTC/USD price analysis is concerned.  Notice that even from an effort versus result point of view, prices are still trending inside Dec 8 bull bar. For buyers to be in charge, then bulls must thrust prices above $3,810. Thereafter in a bull breakout trade, traders can buy on dips or at spot with first targets at $4,500 with stops at Dec 9 lows at around $3,500.

Candlestick Formation: Breakout Trade, Range

Clearly, BTC/USD is within a bear breakout trade but ranging as aforementioned. But, for bulls to be in charge then we must see high volumes gains printing above Nov lows of $3,800. This move will invalidate the bear breakout pattern of Dec 6. However, if prices fail to recover printing below Dec 9 lows then we shall have a retest and odds are BTC might test $3,280—or lower by the end of the week.

Conclusion

From candlestick arrangement, bulls might recover above $3,800. As such, our BTC/USD trade plan will be as follows:

Buy Trigger: $3,800—Dec 8 Highs

Stops: $3,500—Dec 9 Lows

First Targets: $4,500

All Charts courtesy of Trading View.

This is not Investment Advice. Do you own Research.

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Crypto Startups Going Bankrupt Amidst Market Crash

Blockchain, Cryptocurrency–While investors are left holding the tab from the plummeting crypto market, with this week seeing a relative low for Bitcoin since peaking at $20,000 in December 2017, crypto-based startups have also had to contend with the fallout.

On December 6, Bloomberg reported on a round-up of cryptocurrency startups that are closing doors amidst the most recent price rout for Bitcoin and the broader altcoin market, starting with ETCDEV–the group behind the launch of Ethereum Classic.

ETC, seventeenth in market capitalization with a value of over $400 million, announced last week that it would be closing shop following a shortage of funds and inability to raise more capital to keep the project afloat. Igor Artamonov, founder of ETCDEV and the forked coin of Ethereum (ETH), spoke in an interview on the state of his company in the context of the broader falling market,

“There are a few things that happened at the same time. I am sure if that happened a year ago, that wouldn’t be a problem at all, a year ago there was a lot of free money in the market. But in a bear market there’s a change.”

ETCDEV is not the only crypto based company to take a hit in the present market, with the Bloomberg report including actions by ConsenSys, a software company based out of New York, to cut its workforce by 13 percent as a direct result of falling coin prices. In November, content publishing platform Steemit Inc., which also created the currency Steem (STEEM) to facilitate in-house transactions, had to layoff 70 percent of its employees.

Bloomberg lays the majority of the blame in projects over-extending themselves on digital assets, setting up significant losses as a result of 2018’s ongoing bear cycle,

“Many of the companies are suffering because they kept a portion of their funds in digital assets, whether in tokens they sold through initial coin offerings or in Bitcoin and Ether, which served as the preferred means of exchange in the crypto world. As prices collapsed this year by more than 90 percent in some cases, and their so-called digital wallets thinned out, many developers found they couldn’t raise additional funding.”

With the decline in crypto prices and the demand for ICOs, many projects that made their fortune collecting coins in exchange for issued tokens have had to contend with the ill effects of a collapsing market. In addition, the landscape for fundraising has vastly shifted, with projects no longer being able to raise millions on a whitepaper alone or by including “blockchain” in a company title.

In some ways, the declining market may have the effect of pushing better projects to the top of the heap, with efficiency being valued over greed. Given the sudden boom cryptocurrency experienced in 2017, with coin prices rising several thousand percent for many currencies by year’s end, the gold rush for blockchain and ICOs created a scramble that is still having negative effects on the industry. The focus became on launching projects rather than promoting durability, quality and real world use–a hallmark of an inflated and destined to crash industry.

With prices and the market resetting to a valuation to that of over a year ago, cryptocurrency will find itself of having to do more with less, which includes focusing on development routes that will lead to the greatest adoption by Main Street customers while drawing the interest of Wall Street investors.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Some Bullish Hints

Bitcoin is still trending lower inside a descending channel on the 1-hour chart but is currently testing the resistance to attempt another break. However this lines up with an area of interest or former support that might now hold as a ceiling.

This level happens to line up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level around $3,600 so there may be some selling pressure at this level. A break above it could also hit a roadblock at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level or the $3,700 area. This also happens to coincide with the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point.

The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, the downtrend is more likely to resume than to reverse. Then again, the gap between the two moving averages is narrowing to reflect slower selling pressure and hint at a potential bullish crossover. Also, bitcoin has climbed above the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point to signal that bullish momentum is picking up.

RSI has reached the overbought zone and started to turn lower, indicating a pickup in selling momentum. Stochastic is also heading south to indicate that bears have the upper hand and could push price to the swing low at the $3,225 area or to the channel bottom closer to $3,000.

On the flip side, a strong recovery among buyers could spur a move to the swing high around $4,050 and a break above this could confirm that a reversal from the downtrend is underway.

Bitcoin has had a lot to deal with in the past weeks as it attempts to shake off the FUD that is currently weighing on prices. Although the recent run has been positive, bulls have been quick to book profits off bounces for fear of another leg lower in prices.

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Bloomberg Opinion Bitcoin Price Prediction: More FUD for 2019

Bitcoin (BTC), Cryptocurrency–While the crypto markets see a slight reversal in pricing to round out the final week of December, with Bitcoin creeping closer to $3700 after hitting a relative low earlier in the week, predictions on the outlook of the industry for 2019 continue to sour investors.

Last week, as reported by EWN, billionaire crypto investor Mike Novogratz lamented the state of the cryptocurrency markets throughout 2018, claiming in a conference call that,

“It’s been a horrible bear market in tokens. There’s plenty of reason to be depressed.”

However, Novogratz qualified his statement with some positive spin, reminding investors that coin prices may be down but adoption and general acceptance for crypto and blockchain has been on the rise throughout the year. Despite his crypto investment firm Galaxy Digital Holdings posting over $130 million in losses through 2018’s bear cycle, Novogratz remains confident in cryptocurrency extending into 2019 and beyond,

“I fundamentally think you’re going to see big adaption in 2019, 2020. Lots of the items in the digital world, the e-gaming space, are low value items so I think people will be more comfortable participating in blockchain. We’re making big investments in that area.”

While Novogratz, a long time Bitcoin bull and supporter for cryptocurrency, remains hopeful for a market recovery into next year, traditional financial outlets have fond more reason to be cynical. In a year end, opinion-based review for 2019 predictions, Bloomberg opinion column has struck a chord in crypto investors by publishing more of the FUD that has become part and parcel among mainstream publications.

Rounding out the top of the list for “egregious predictions of 2018,” the opinion piece by Barry Ritholtz lambasts Bitcoin and the litany of assumptions that were made at the start of the year in the midst of a bull run,

“The spectrum of predictions ran from the sublime to the criminally negligent to the utterly insane. It got so bad that a website was set up to track all of the Bitcoin prophesies.”

The article continues on to call out Fundstrat’s Tom Lee and the aforementioned Mike Novogratz for their predictions throughout the year,

“Fundstrat’s Tom Lee’s 2018 forecast for $25,000 Bitcoin was reduced last month to $15,000 by year-end. (The cryptocurrency recently traded at about $3,650.) As foolish as that sounds, it was modest compared to the rest of the asylum. Michael Novogratz forecast that ‘$40,000 was possible by the end of 2018.’”

While Bitcoin continues to trade close to a relative low for the year, with the digital asset slipping from near $20,000 in December 2017 to $3600 as of writing, the schadenfreude for BTC and cryptocurrency in general is mounting. From a combination of FOMO and “I told you so,” traditional finance analysts are lining up to cast stones at the number one cryptocurrency by market cap, despite failing to predict a similarly bullish run for the coin just a year ago.

Investors, still reeling from the losses of 2018’s ongoing bear cycle, have little to be excited for as we enter the final month of the year. However, they have managed to weather the storm of Bitcoin hate and claims of BTC “being dead,” which has led to the creation of websites tracking the obituaries for the coin. Time will tell if the current crop of predictions for the demise of Bitcoin will be added to the heap.

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