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Bitcoin Spikes 10% in Minutes, Up to $10,800 From $9,100 Bottom

Bitcoin Spikes Higher in Unexpected Surge

Wow, well that was quick. In the past two hours, Bitcoin (BTC) has gained over 10%, rallying from $9,400 to $10,600. Most of this rally actually took place in a few minutes, with the cryptocurrency gaining around $800 of that move higher in a matter of a single five-minute candle. To say that the crypto market is volatile is an understatement, that’s for sure.

Per Kruger, this rally was entirely unexpected. “No technical analysis could have predicted that squeeze until it was already half way under way. Bears were fully in control until slightly past 10:30 EST,” he wrote on Twitter.

This 10% spike is the latest in a series of moves that have cemented that volatility is back in the cryptocurrency markets. As industry analytics provider Skew points out, Bitcoin realized volatility levels are “back to levels not seen since the end of the great 2017 bull market.”

This strong surge to the upside comes after CryptoHamster drew attention to a number of reasons why Bitcoin dumping to $9,100 may be the end of the drop.

Firstly, the one-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Stochastic iteration of this indicator are at their lowest levels since at least February, entering the “oversold” range. The one-day Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has tapped the zero level, despite the fact that Bitcoin is in a raging bull market according to most analysis.

Also, the Elder’s Forse Index, an indicator meant to exhibit the strength of moves, is at its lowest since November 2018; and historical volatility is almost at 100%, implying a move to the upside to return volatility to levels deemed normal.

Despite all this, there are some that suggest BTC still needs to correct further to return to more sustainable levels. $8,000 seems to be the local bottom that most are keeping their eye on, but this recent boom may put a damper on a move to that level.

Title Image Courtesy of Andre Francois Mckenzie Via Unsplash 

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Bitcoin Rallies 7% From $9,100, Analyst Deems BTC Drop Over

Bitcoin May Be Forming Short-Term Bottom

Bitcoin (BTC) has finally started to show some life on its short-term chart once again. In the past 8-odd hours, the cryptocurrency has rallied off its $9,150 bottom, moving up 7% to $9,800 where it stands now.

According to a chart from Scott “The Wolf of All Streets” Melker, a popular crypto asset trader and DJ, this sudden breakout has seen BTC move above a key descending wedge and foray above a previous swing low/resistance. What’s more, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is working on breaking higher, implying further upside, and the bullish engulfing candle structure may suggest a reversal of the bear trend for the time being.

It isn’t clear if this is the bottom of this ongoing downturn, which could last upwards of six weeks should history repeat itself, but one analyst claims that for now, the drop should be over. Analyst CryptoHamster laid out a number of reasons why this is.

Firstly, the one-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Stochastic iteration of this indicator are at their lowest levels since at least February, entering the “oversold” range. The one-day Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has tapped the zero level, despite the fact that Bitcoin is in a raging bull market according to most analysis.

Also, the Elder’s Forse Index, an indicator meant to exhibit the strength of moves, is at its lowest since November 2018; and historical volatility is almost at 100%, implying a move to the upside to return volatility to levels deemed normal.

Per previous reports from this outlet though, a move lower could be had in the coming weeks, maybe after there is some reprieve for bulls like what is being seen now.

 Timothy Peterson, a prominent American crypto fund manager, notes that Bitcoin’s current active account figure suggests that BTC is overvalued.

According to Peterson’s model, which takes a 30-day median (as of July 13th) of the number of active accounts on the Bitcoin blockchain, BTC currently has a fair valuation of just above $8,000.

In a tweet issued on Saturday, Josh Rager, a prominent technical analyst and cryptocurrency commentator, looked to this same level.

Rager notes that a “confluence” of chart data and on-chain data suggests that a pullback “would likely bottom out at $8,000”. As he explained in the chart above, $8,000 acted as a key horizontal support and resistance level in the recent rally and 2018’s crash.

Title Image Courtesy of Juskteez Vu Via Unsplash 

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Bitcoin (BTC) Pausing Rally at $13,000 Isn’t Bearish, Here’s Why

Bitcoin in Reaccumulation?

Bitcoin hasn’t been doing too hot as of late. After hitting $13,000 last week, BTC has dipped, as bulls have failed to pick up the pace. Indeed, volumes have begun to drop, sentiment has begun to dip, and Google Trends interest for “Bitcoin” and related terms are on the downtrend.

This has materialized in an approximated 25% drop in the leading cryptocurrency, and upwards of 30% to 40% in altcoins like Ethereum and Litecoin. As of the time of writing this, Bitcoin sits at $9,700, up slightly from the daily bottom of $9,250.

While this dramatic drop has been seen as the “end of a bull market” by some bearish traders, historical trends suggest that Bitcoin needs this retracement. More importantly, this retracement might just be healthy.

As Nunya Bizniz, an up-and-coming industry commentator, points out, Bitcoin’s two previous cycles have seen a near-identical series of phases: rally (bull phase), pop (bear phase), enter a multi-month lull of accumulation, rally off a bottom (expansion), an extended period of reaccumulation, and then the block reward reduction event.

Bitcoin rallying from $3,150 to the local peak of $14,000 was seemingly the expansion phase; what is occurring now is the reaccumulation phase.

This is essential, as there has never been a point in the asset’s history where it established a new low or high one year out from any halving, meaning that a further rally or total collapse from here is somewhat improbable. Thus, in some senses, this pause in the rally is needed and should have been expected.

So, where exactly will this reaccumulation phase bottom out? Around $8,000 seems to be the consensus among analysts, at least in the current downturn.

Per an analysis of the Mayer Multiple (price over 200-day moving average) by CryptoKea, a little-known analyst that accurately called the recent drop to at least $9,700 earlier this month, if you consider the Multiple, the ongoing correction looks much like the first “major correction” of 2017’s bull run.

He notes that if history repeats itself and Bitcoin reverses out of its current short-term bearish trend like it did in 2012 and 2017, it could find support anywhere from $7,148 to $8,700. This corresponds to 1.20 times to 1.46 times of the 200-day moving average, which currently sits at $5,957.

Most likely, however, Kea notes that the “most probable target” as per the use of the Mayer Multiple will be $7,505 — another 20% drop from the current Bitcoin price of $9,600.

Title Image Courtesy of Andre- Francois Mckenzie Via Unsplash

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Bitcoin to Hit $100,000 in 2020? You Can Bet on It

LedgerX Unveils New Product

Bitcoin-centric derivatives platform LedgerX has just unveiled a helluva product.

Reported first by Bloomberg, the American exchange that recently secured a derivatives license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will be allowing traders to bet on if Bitcoin will pass $100,000 by December 2020. The call option will pay only if BTC manages to surmount that crazy milestone by December of 2020, which is still around 18 months away.

According to Paul Chou, the chief executive of the startup, institutional customers that have assets valued at anywhere from $10 million to $1 billion have expressed interest in this new vehicle. Chou adds:

I understand $100,000 is a large number, but a lot of us who’ve been in this space remember Bitcoin at $1, and then it hit $10 and $100 and $10,000. A $100,000 contract doesn’t even make us blink.

As reported by Ethereum World News previously, LedgerX has received clearance from the CFTC. This regulatory green light will allow the company to list physically-settled BTC futures, which are far different than the paper contracts offered by the CME.

According to CoinDesk, chief operating officer Juthica Chou has claimed that her company has no exact timeline, but she noted that LedgerX is looking to be the incumbent in this market. Chou adds that LedgerX intends to “serve customers of all sizes”, hinting that there may be a much-needed retail component to this upcoming product, something that Bakkt is seemingly not focusing on yet.

Is a $100,000 Bitcoin Possible?

Alright, so now that you know that such a zany product is available, do analysts think that Bitcoin achieving $100,000 by 2020 is possible?

According to one model, just maybe. The model is from analyst PlanB and centers around the idea of the stock-to-flow ratio (SF).

The stock is the value of an asset, usually a commodity, above the ground/produced; the flow is the growth in the supply of said asset in any given year. These two sums can be combined to form a ratio, which defines scarcity by how much inflation an asset sees (the higher, the more scarce).

According to an analysis compiled by PlanB, the value of commodities like gold and silver can be plotted, and thus predicted, by a stock-to-flow valuation model.

In a recent tweet, the analyst noted that if you take BTC’s prices in all historical Octobers, then plotted it against his stock-to-flow model, Bitcoin fits it to a 99.5% R2.

The model predicts that should Bitcoin continue to follow the model to an eerie degree of accuracy, BTC could reach over $100,000 a pop after May 2020’s halving event. You see, when the cryptocurrency’s block reward reduction arrives, the SF ratio naturally increases, doubling actually.

The model doesn’t predict exact price action on a day-to-day and month-to-month basis, but it does show that a six-figure Bitcoin is entirely possible.

Title Image Courtesy of Through Catalog Via Unsplash

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Bitcoin Now Accepted For Property Taxes in a Canadian City

Property Taxes in Bitcoin?

As much as some like to sugarcoat it, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have seen minimal adoption. Use cases are limited, brick and mortar that accept digital assets are few and far between, and the public’s interest in this ecosystem is lackluster at best. 

Enter the small town of Richmond Hill, a pseudo-suburb of Canada’s biggest (and arguably most important city) by population, Toronto.

Located just an hour or two of Toronto and sporting a population of approximately 200,000, Richmond Hill might be the last municipality that you would expect to be forward-thinking. This isn’t the case though.

Revealed on July 15th via a press release, the City of Richmond Hill may be teaming up with Coinberry. This comes just five days after the municipality’s Council voted in favor (or favour, as Canadians would spell it) of joining hands with the local cryptocurrency startup. If successful, this partnership will see Richmond Hill indirectly accepting Bitcoin (BTC) payments as a way for property taxes to be paid. The town’s Deputy Mayor stated:

We believe that the demand for a digital currency payment option is only going to grow in the coming years, especially amongst millennials

Should negotiations be successful, this will be Coinberry’s second collaboration with a Canadian municipality. Starting in April, residents of Innisfil, a town not too far from Richmond Hill, saw a crypto payment portal from Coinberry that only accepted Bitcoin.

Support for Ethereum, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, and Ripple’s XRP could be added in the future, as long as the pilot sees some semblance of success.

It is important to note that once Coinberry receives the funds paid, it will be converting the cryptocurrency instantly to Canadian Dollars for proper deposit in the town’s coffers. While this isn’t the direct adoption of cryptocurrency, presumably due to regulatory setbacks, it is still beneficial for Bitcoin.

IRS Cracks Down

This comes as the Internal Revenue Service of the United States has begun to crack down on this space. Just last week, a cryptocurrency tax professional managed to get her hands on a more than 100-part slide deck given to agents of the IRS.

Per the presentation, the American entity intends to us interviews, “open-source searches”, electronic surveillance, social media scrutiny, and Grand Jury subpoenas to try and identify and crack down on evaders.

She states that the slides indicate the need to subpoena technology giants with U.S. operations, namely Apple, Google, and Microsoft to inquire about suspects’ histories.

Also, the IRS notes that it may also involve banks, credit card providers, and digital payment ecosystems like PayPal to see if there are transactions in affiliation with the usage of Bitcoin or other digital currencies.

Photo by Jp Valery on Unsplash  

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Analyst: Bitcoin Ban Extremely Unlikely Post-U.S. Treasury’s Comment

U.S. Treasury Secretary: Bitcoin, Crypto Are “National Security Issues”

On Monday, the U.S. Treasury Secretary made it clear that he is aware of Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and Libra, especially in regards to what issues they pose to society and traditional finance.

Echoing Donald Trump’s stances to a T, Steven Mnuchin noted that “cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin” have been “exploited” to facilitate illicit activity worth billions. Mnuchin claims that said criminal activities that are known to involve Bitcoin and other decentralized digital assets include “tax evasion, extortion, ransomware, [the sale of] illicit drugs, and human trafficking”. With this in mind, the Treasury Secretary dubbed cryptocurrencies a “national security issue”, keeping his statement blunt.

He adds that companies dealing with this asset class should comply by the rules that many “traditional financial institutions” abide by, namely those involving anti-money laundering, countering the financing of terrorism, and money transmitting and servicing. Mnuchin explained:

“The United States Treasury has been very clear to Facebook, to Bitcoin users, and to other providers of digital financial services that they must implement the same [rules] as traditional financial institutions. The rules governing money-service providers apply to physical and electronic transactions alike.”

While these comments seem bearish, there may be a silver lining. As crypto-friendly economist Alex Kruger notes, the odds of there being a U.S. “Bitcoin ban dropped from extremely low to almost zero” following this press conference. Kruger dubbed Mnuchin’s comments a “nothing burger”, presumably because what was said could be classified as givens.

Mnuchin’s tacit assurance that this industry should be heavily regulated, not banned, comes after talk of an all-encompassing ban on Bitcoin and altcoins arose in response to Trump’s tweets on cryptocurrency.

Trump’s Thoughts on Crypto

Per previous reports from Ethereum World News, the American president tried to dismantle the value proposition of not only decentralized cryptocurrencies — such as and namely Bitcoin — but Facebook’s Libra too.

Trump quipped that he doesn’t believe that digital assets are money, adding that they are also known to be very volatile and “based on thin air”.  The President went on to argue that cryptocurrencies can and do “facilitate unlawful behavior”, citing its use in the drug trade and “other illegal activity”.

He even took some time to poke the Libra crowd, claiming that the association should abide by “all Banking Regulations”, and that the U.S. Dollar should be the world’s strongest currency.

Might Just be Bearish for Bitcoin

Sure, maybe there isn’t a ban on the horizon. But, should cryptocurrency investors be worried after these comments. According to Kruger, it’s entirely possible. He writes that Libra’s chances of actually coming to fruition seem “toast”, and institutions may be disincentivized to foray into the cryptocurrency space more than they already have.

Photo by Mikhail Pavstyuk on Unsplash

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Crypto Industry Reacts as US Treasury Secretary Deems Crypto a “National Security Issue”

Crypto

Following US President Donald Trump’s scathing remarks about Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general, the U.S. Treasury Secretary – Steven Mnuchin – is now placing crypto on the center stage of the US’ regulatory policy.

Naturally, the crypto industry reacted swiftly to Mnuchin’s remarks that were made during a press conference held earlier today, and many analysts believe that it is a further validation of the nascent markets.

Mnuchin Claims That Crypto is a “National Security Issue”

Last week, the crypto industry was taken aback when President Trump went on a Twitter tirade in which he shared that he is “not a fan” of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Although these comments certainly weren’t positive for the crypto markets, it was viewed as a validation of the cryptocurrency by many investors and analysts alike. Despite this, many analysts have also attributed the market’s recent downwards pressure to these comments, although this connection is purely speculative.

Shortly after these comments were made, Mnuchin further legitimized the issue by calling the lack of regulations surrounding cryptocurrencies as a “national security issue,” which likely signals that a massive federal regulatory crackdown looms on the horizon.

Industry Reacts to Possibility of Federal Regulatory Crackdown

Although Mnuchin’s comments weren’t necessarily a direct endorsement or opposition of cryptocurrencies, they are certainly emblematic of the fact that the nascent markets will likely face more stringent regulations in the months and years ahead.

Brad Garlinghouse, the CEO of Ripple, spoke about the comments in a recent thread of tweets, and noted that the crypto industry has come a long way from the days of the Silk Road online marketplace – a time at which Bitcoin was primarily used for illicit activities on the dark web.

“But as Mnuchin indicated, the entire crypto industry should not be painted with one broad brush – it has come a long way since the days of Silk Road. For the industry to succeed, we need to work with regulators and within policies. Full stop,” Garlinghouse explained.

Furthermore, Alex Krüger, a popular economist who focuses primarily on cryptocurrencies, explained that one positive thing about the recent comments made during the press conference is that it rules out a Bitcoin ban.

“On the positive side, a bitcoin ban seems out of the question. However, a US ban was unthinkable 5 days ago, before the Trump tweet. On the negative side, Libra (which is positive for $BTC) seems toast, while institutional interest in the asset class may diminish,” he explained.

Although at this moment it remains somewhat unclear as to what impact a deluge of fresh federal regulatory policies could have on the crypto markets, it is important to note that it could take many months, or even years, before any of these policies are actually cemented.

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Fundstrat: Bitcoin Fall to $10,000 Healthy, $20,000 EOY Possible

Bitcoin Correction to $10,000 is “Healthy”?

Bitcoin (BTC) has been absolutely slammed over the past five days. Since passing above $13,000 for the second time this year on Wednesday, the cryptocurrency has been on a clearly downward-sloping trend. As of the time of writing this, Bitcoin sits at $10,600 — down by around 25% from its year-to-date high of $13,900.

Despite this harrowing price action, which has resulted in a sentiment of “extreme fear” according to the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee is still quite bullish.

In a recent response to Morgan Creek’s Jason Williams, the Wall Street’s resident staunch cryptocurrency optimist, explained that it is “healthy” to see Bitcoin pullback here.

Backing his claim, Lee suggests that as Bitcoin’s search traffic, as calculated by Google Trends, is still low, the recent drawdown makes sense and could be deemed a “good sign”. You see, the fact that search interest for the “Bitcoin” and “crypto” keywords haven’t rallied to 2017 levels suggests that there isn’t “massive hype” gracing this budding market, which means that BTC has room to run and is only in the early stages of its next cycle.

And as The Crypto Monk, a popular trader, remarked in a tweet, in previous bull runs, BTC established a pattern of entering parabolic uptrends, breaking them, consolidating, before embarking on more parabolic uptrends. Barring that Bitcoin currently isn’t in a bull market, this same series of events could easily play out now.

$20,000, Maybe $40,000 by the End of 2019?

Lee’s persistent optimism comes as he has continued to eye $20,000, even $40,000 as price targets for Bitcoin to reach by the end of 2019. Here’s why he’s bullish.

In the interview, Lee said that all things considered, Donald Trump’s tweets regarding this industry are “positive” because they cement the idea that cryptocurrencies are a relevant topic on the global geopolitical and macroeconomic stage. Indeed, over the past few weeks, the words “Bitcoin”, “Libra”, and “Crypto” have begun to grace mainstream outlets and government hearings time and time again.

Lee expounded: Trump’s comments “makes the other 99% [of the world] more aware [of cryptocurrency].” And if 1% of this new audience somehow finds value in the cryptocurrency market, the size of the community surrounding this asset class would de-facto double instantly.

In previous interviews, the Fundstrat co-founder also looked to the launch of Libra; a growth in cases of dovish fiscal policy, which some say will increase the chances of a recession and large inflationary events; and geopolitical tension that could only bolster the fundamental need for decentralized money as other bullish catalysts.

Photo by Kent Pilcher on Unsplash

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Bitcoin Bounces Off $10,000, BTC Could Rally Further: Analysts

Bitcoin Finds Support at $10,000… For Now

Bitcoin (BTC) has been absolutely slammed over the past five days. Since passing above $13,000 for the second time this year on Wednesday, the cryptocurrency has been on a clearly downward-sloping trend.

In fact, the asset has lost around 25% since hitting $13,200, reaching a multi-week low of $9,750 on Monday. And right now, the asset is trading for $10,250, with bulls managing to put up somewhat of a fight at the key level of $10,000.

As James Todaro, a prominent cryptocurrency investor points out, where BTC bounced is where the 50-day exponential moving average meets $10,000, making it an important swing level, and may continue to act as a strong level of support in this ongoing correction.

The last time BTC encountered was back in late-March, which was prior to Bitcoin’s strong rallies past $5,000, $8,000, and $10,000 in relatively rapid succession.

Should this level be lost, analysts suggest that BTC could correct hard, and may even return to the 200-day exponential moving average, which sits around $7,000.

In the short-term, however, bulls may get some reprieve. As analyst Crypto Tytan notes, when Bitcoin corrected last, it bounced off the 78.6 Fibonacci Retracement at around $9,800, and subsequently rallied all the way back to $13,000. So far, BTC has followed this trend, meaning that it may be in for a strong bounce, at least to the next key Fibonacci Retracement level of $10,700.

Also, Tytan points out that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on Bitcoin’s four-hour chart have begun to reverse, heading to the upside.

This bounce may not last though. Timothy Peterson, a prominent American crypto fund manager, notes that Bitcoin’s current active account figure suggests that BTC is fundamentally overvalued. This is an evident reference to the fact that Bitcoin, like other technological phenomenons, can be valued by its number of users, transactions, and other key statistics.

According to Peterson’s model, which takes a 30-day median (as of July 13th) of the number of active accounts on the Bitcoin blockchain, BTC currently has a fair valuation of just above $8,000.

(An aside, Bitcoin’s hash rate has recently moved above 78 million terahashes per second. This is an all-time high, meaning that not all of the blockchain’s statistics are signaling lower prices.)

Sure, Bitcoin has deviated from its fundamental value on certain trading days, but as the analyst explained in a different tweet, in the medium to long term, network value should reflect actual value.

Also, the fact that BTC closed its weekly candles under key resistance levels in the $11,000 range has led some traders, like Josh Rager, to suggest a move under $10,000, potentially to reach the $8,000 to $9,000 region.

Title Image Courtesy of Andre Francois Mckenzie Via Unsplash 

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Crypto Researcher: Trump Could Ban Bitcoin, But it’s Unlikely

Donald Trump Name Drops Bitcoin

In a three-part thread, Donald Trump lambasted cryptocurrencies, even setting his sights on Bitcoin. The American leader tried to dismantle the value proposition of not only decentralized cryptocurrencies — such as and namely Bitcoin — but Facebook’s Libra too.

Trump quipped that he doesn’t believe that digital assets are money, adding that they are also known to be very volatile and “based on thin air”.  The President went on to argue that cryptocurrencies can and do “facilitate unlawful behavior”, citing its use in the drug trade and “other illegal activity”.

He even took some time to poke the Libra crowd, claiming that the association should abide by “all Banking Regulations”, and that the U.S. Dollar should be the world’s strongest currency.

A BTC Ban Possible?

This sudden tweetstorm left many wondering, is Trump looking to ban Bitcoin? And more importantly, would it even be possible for the American leader to take such drastic action?

According to one prominent crypto researcher, no and yes. In a recent Twitter thread, Alex Kruger, an economist and known industry analyst, laid out his thoughts on the potential for a ban of Bitcoin and maybe other cryptocurrencies in the United States.

Via the 16-part thread, Kruger explained that technically, the U.S. president cannot ban code, which Bitcoin is. What Trump can do, however, is to ensure that the government targets fiat onramps into this ecosystem. For instance, U.S. financial regulators could determine cryptocurrencies, even Bitcoin, too risky to be sold to retail investors; and the President could even issue an executive order disallowing those from dealing with BTC, but he would need to find a valid reason in the Constitution or legislature.

Kruger sees three main reasons why the government would want to crack down on the cryptocurrency. 1) cryptocurrency represents a clear threat to the banking system, as made evident by the anti-Libra stance by governments the world over; 2) digital assets hurt Washington’s ability to impose economic sanctions; 3) as Trump stated, Bitcoin and its ilk can be used to facilitate illicit activity, like laundering proceeds of contraband sales and evading taxes.

Despite these reasons to ban cryptocurrency, Kruger notes that such a step would be unlikely. Even if a ban manages to occur, the economist notes that the ban would be overturned.

This aside, Jeremy Allaire, the chief executive of the Goldman Sachs-backed Circle, suggested that Trump’s tweets — yes, tweets — are potentially the “largest bull signal” for Bitcoin of all time. As he explains, no longer is Bitcoin an asset for the fringe. Now, it exists in the mainstream, as more likely than not, this single Twitter thread, exposed to upwards of 68 million Twitter users, will trigger global political and economic discussion on the matter. And by simple virtue of curiosity and the so-called “Lindy Effect”, this space could grow rapidly.

Photo by Helloquence on Unsplash

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