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Leading ETF Authority Claims SEC Still Gathering Information on Bitcoin (BTC)

SEC Bitcoin BTC Decision 2019

In a frustrating move for both institutional and retail investors, the United States Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) has ruled to delay its decision on Bitcoin ETFs–again.

Since mid-2018, Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have been the hot topic of conversation in cryptocurrency and a focal point for the industry in encouraging institutions to invest in digital assets. As opposed to approving the assortment of ETF applications brought before it, the SEC has routinely denied or delayed such claims. As reported by EWN, the U.S. regulatory body delayed its decision on Bitcoin ETF frontrunner VanEck earlier today, and gave little reason in issuing its decision.

However, while investors may be losing patience with the SEC, one of the world’s leading authorities on ETFs claims that the commission is still in the ‘information gathering’ phase on Bitcoin, despite having multiple years worth of proposals.

David Nadig, managing director of ETF.com, told CNBC on May 20 that the SEC is still compiling a verdict on Bitcoin ETFs, and has the authority to continue delaying its creation, despite so-called deadlines,

“It is clear the SEC is still in information gathering mode. […] Technically, there are deadlines, but honestly they [SEC] can do what they want, they can kick this down the road until they are comfortable, it is clear from what we are hearing.”

While investors and crypto enthusiasts continue to beat their heads against the wall over the SEC’s glacial pace, the decision-making body appears to be in no hurry to approve the creation of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund. It’s possible the SEC is waiting out another market cycle for cryptocurrency, content to sit on the sidelines in the event of a total BTC collapse.

Nadig, for what it’s worth, believes that a Bitcoin ETF will eventually get the greenlight, albeit at the cost of several months or more of waiting. Specifically, he told CNBC his prediction that a BTC ETF could take at least a quarter or longer to gain approval, pushing the proposed date for a decision to August or later. However, he also gave a vote of confidence for the growth of the cryptocurrency industry, and relayed that regulators would be more comfortable with a BTC ETF as the market matures.

Retail investors may not find difficulty in buying and selling cryptocurrency through the traditional exchange route, but institutional and high-capital investors have been more wary. An exchange-traded fund, with the regulatory weight of the SEC behind it, has long been looked to as the signal gun for kicking off large-scale investment. Given the Wild West nature of cryptocurrency exchanges, with hacks and other scandals becoming a regular occurrence for even the largest name players (look no further than Bitfinex and Binance), Wall Street and other institutions would prefer to have more assurance in their investment.

However, the continued delay by the SEC has led to increasing frustration by the investment base, with some analysts pointing to unfair treatment towards cryptocurrency compared to traditional markets.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Rolling Back Losses, Bulls Stand a Chance As Sentiment Change

Bitcoin

After another Tether (USDT) related scandal triggering a
mini-crash, Brian Kelly, the CEO of a digital investment firm BKCM
LLC
says he is a crypto optimist. As an experienced analyst who is “generally right
about 60 percent of the time
“, his outlook is upbeat and is sensing
opportunity despite repeated challenges.  With this, the “The Bitcoin Big Bang — How Alternative Currencies Are About to Change
the World
” author has reasons to believe that Bitcoin is 50 percent
undervalued and that while prices may dip, the dreaded bear market is over.

Of the massive market walkouts,
in an exclusive interview with CoinTelegraph, Brian said:

The sellers that we’ve seen recently are almost forced sellers. Some CEOs had to raise cash because they say they “can’t hold it in crypto all the time.

All the same, Brian is not the
only the one with such strong sentiments regarding Bitcoin’s undervaluation. Fundstrat Global Advisors’ Thomas Lee, a Bitcoin perma-bull
may have gone overboard about Bitcoin’s ability to rally beyond the $25,000
mark in 2017, eating humble pie, but he is as optimistic as ever. Then, Lee
projected Bitcoin’s fair value at around $14,800 but prices crashed below this
mark, tanking to as low as $3,200 in Dec 2018.

Read: Tether (USDT) Losing 30% Of
Its Market Cap A Blow, BitConnect Tokens?

Lee reckoned that as BTC’s acceptance as an asset class, and
adoption by a more considerable quotient of consumers, would push the token’s
price sky high. Then, he told Bloomberg
that “If bitcoin wallets approach
just 7 percent of Visa’s 4.5 billion account holders, fair value would be
$150,000 per Bitcoin
“.

Lee has however declined to place another Bitcoin (BTC)
price prediction. Even so and true to his word, Bitcoin adoption is on an
uptrend and coupled with positive development as Bakkt and a possibility of a
Bitcoin ETF approval for instance, the future is bright. Bakkt, if it gets the
nod from the CFTC, would offer digital assets exchange services to
institutional investors via physically backed Bitcoin Futures, open doors for
investment.

Bitcoin (BTC) as a Gold Alternative

Brian Kelly has intimated that global trade players are
beginning to use Bitcoin as a Gold alternative or a hedge against the average
volatility and fluctuations inherent in fiat. Why? Because BTC is not as stable
as gold, yet its value is uncorrelated; the perfect recipe for high returns.

But perhaps one of the most outlandish price predictions
made concerning BTC undervalued price was made by John McAfee of McAfee Labs.
At BTC’s peak prices in 2017, McAfee claimed that the token would hit $500,000
in three years and later even upped that value to $1 million per BTC before
2020 ends. McAfee was so bullish on BTC he made a statement to the effect that
he would serve bits of himself on national TV if his prediction were
wrong. 

The value of an item is much dependent on the laws of supply
and demand. While BTC’s supply is capped and most of it mined its demand has
been primarily affected by the perception relayed by hurts and boosts from news
items revolving around it.

Also Read: Forget The FUD, Fundstrat’s
Tom Lee Sees New Bitcoin (BTC) Highs In 2020

There, however, is a lot of positivity around the coin right
now, and if the long-awaited Bitcoin ETF is approved, a new vista for the
world’s most valuable coin could emerge. The coin’s volatility most analysts
say is the nature of all fast growth product cycles. Regardless, analysts warn that
BTC’s past, despite tendency of repetition, does not in any way predict its
performance in the future. Bitcoin’s final position as a unique holder in
creating a secure internet value is on the rise and at current rates, we cannot
discount possibility of its value stemming directly from its role as a trillion-dollar
settlement layer.

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Adamant Capital: Bitcoin in ‘Accumulation Phase’ Before Next Bull Run

Bitcoin Price Prediction 2019

A new report by Adamant Capital concludes that the bear market for Bitcoin might be nearing an end, with the currency entering an accumulation phase before the next big bull run.

Compared to the crypto winter of 2018, during which investors were forced to shed BTC or suffer losses as the currency fell from $20,000 to a relative low of $3000, the current market has traders much more optimistic about on the price outlook. Investors are now accumulating Bitcoin, putting pressure on bears who may be selling just ahead of another big price rally.

Tuur Demeester and Michiel Lescrauwaet, co-authors of the report, said that the current price point for Bitcoin should be appealing to investors,

“Now, at 75% below its 2017 all-time high, we believe the current bear market represents an exceptional opportunity for value investors.”

In what Adamant Capital refers to as the ‘accumulation phase’ for Bitcoin, the analytics firm expects BTC to trade in a range of $3000 and $6500, as bears unload their coins to willing bulls who are looking to lock in a discounted price for the number one cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

The report also concluded that retail investors took a bath in November 2018, capitulating any previously made gains–or submitting to significant losses–in a capitulation event that saw the price of Bitcoin fall 48 percent. While some of the cryptocurrency price fall can be attributed to the market uncertainty of Bitcoin Cash’s hash war, investors were also fatigued from nearly 12 months of bear market prices. The end result is a glut of investors looking to re-enter the market at a favorable condition, especially if they sold out at Bitcoin’s relative price low during last November.

Adamant Capital has made a point of tracking unrealized Profit and Loss and indicator of market performance, and reports that the most recent price rally has had a substantial impact on that metric,

“The recent price rally from $4,000 to over $5,000 markedly improved HODLer’s Unrealized P&L improving our reported sentiment value from capitulation to hope,”

The report, in particular, looks at the claim that retail investors (individual investors as opposed to professional traders or institutions) have largely left the market following the last year of losses. Such a situation would indicate that the well of bearish sellers for Bitcoin may be smaller than previously thought. Adamant Capital points to Google Trends data that indicates “apathy and disinterest” on behalf of retail investors, with searches for Bitcoin dropping to as low as March 2017 values.

Adamant also points to gradual decline in Bitcoin price volatility over the last several months, a factor that has historically been attributed to the actions of retail investors,

“High Bitcoin volatility can be a proxy for the involvement of trigger-happy retail speculators, whereas low volatility tends to coincide with phases of consolidation, apathy, and accumulation.”

With finicky retail investors gone, long-term holders have come to make up the majority of the market, a group that will be looking to accumulate more BTC at current prices and avoid succumbing to the bearish sellers.

The combination of price anticipation and investor makeup has led Adamant to conclude that Bitcoin, at its current price point, is back in “undervalued territory.”

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The US SEC Hiring a “Crypto Specialist” is Positive for Bitcoin ETF Applicants

Bitcoin

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has so far rejected or postponed decisions on Bitcoin ETF. However, the commission recently posted that it is looking to hire a crypto specialist, a move that signals that it wants to learn more about digital currencies.

US SEC To Hire A Crypto Specialist

According to a job posting on the federal employment website USAJobs, the SEC revealed that it is looking to recruit an “Attorney-Adviser” that would serve as a cryptocurrency specialist. The job post was made on March 29 and application is ongoing until April 15.

Read: Breaking: VanEck, Bitwise Bitcoin ETFs Delayed By The SEC

The latest development indicates that the commission is stepping up its effort to learn more about cryptocurrencies and how the crypto sector operates. The crypto specialist is expected to have an in-depth knowledge of the federal securities laws and digital securities. This would help them determine how they would regulate the cryptocurrency sector.

According to the job post, the specialist will apply “knowledge of federal securities laws to digital asset securities and crypto matters, i.e., broker-dealer, exchange, clearing agency and transfer registrations, exchange product applications, sales, and trading practices, etc.” The successful person would also be tasked with serving as the agency’s point of contact for domestic and international regulators, market participants, and the public.

Positive News For Bitcoin ETF Applicants

The fact that the SEC is hiring cryptocurrency experts is good news for Bitcoin ETF applicants. So far, the commission has previously postponed deciding on Bitcoin ETF proposals while in some cases, it had denied the applications.

The agency had claimed multiple times that the crypto space is still mostly unregulated at this point and it would be risky to approve a Bitcoin ETF. However, there is a belief within the crypto community that the SEC is yet to make a decision because it lacks in-depth knowledge of the cryptocurrency space and how they work.

Recently, the commission announced that it had postponed its decision on the ETF proposals submitted by BitWise Asset Management and VanEck/SolidX. The agency stated that it would “either approve or disapprove, or institute proceedings to determine whether to disapprove, the proposed rule change by May 16, 2019.

By hiring a cryptocurrency specialist, the commission could make favorable decisions, and this is good news for Bitcoin ETF applicants. With the SEC decision roughly six weeks away, the hiring of a crypto specialist comes at a good time and could probably lead to the first ETF in the cryptocurrency space.

Blockchain Jobs Are Becoming Popular

Blockchain related posts are growing popular as more companies and entities are hiring people with knowledge of the emerging technology. Data pulled from Indeed.com shows that over the past year, there has been a 90 percent increase in blockchain and crypto related job postings. The figure is tally with other statistics which shows that blockchain-based jobs are up by 4,000 percent over the past three years.

Also Read: Bitcoin ETF: SEC’s CryptoMom Peirce Has More Good News For Crypto

What is even more interesting is the fact that the job postings mostly come from large corporate companies like Facebook, JPMorgan Chase, Deloitte, and other huge Wall Street companies. The interest from such companies shows that this is one of the best time to have a blockchain and crypto-related skill.

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Breaking: VanEck, Bitwise Bitcoin ETFs Delayed By The SEC

Two Bitcoin ETF Applications Delayed

According to CoinDesk, two Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications from VanEck (in collaboration with SolidX + CBOE) and Bitwise (in collaboration with NYSE), a New York-based fund manager and San Francisco-headquartered crypto services provider respectively, have been delayed.

As reported by Ethereum World News, the two applications were filed in quick succession, and subsequently pushed to the Federal Register, giving the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) 45 days to issue a verdict or delay. It seems that the regulatory agency has used its right to choose the latter option, thereby giving it another 45 days to discuss the proposals, which would mark the first U.S.-regulated publicly-tradable funds for Bitcoin if approved. This means that the SEC will need to approve, deny, or delay the proposals (again) by May 16th, 2019.

U.S. Public Burns Crypto

This comes just after the VanEck proposal received scathing comments from the American public on the SEC’s forums. Per previous reports from this outlet, Sam Ahn of Hana Trading released a six-page, nine-point tear down of Bitcoin and the proposed ETF product, which would open the floodgates to BTC. While Ahn’s points were drawn-out, a clear theme of anti-mining, Satoshi Nakamoto cynicism, and “BTC doesn’t have intrinsic value” was apparent. The investor remarked that not only is Satoshi’s magnum opus hard for him to process, but that the cryptocurrency isn’t like gold as in “a string of 64-digits, with about 17 leading zeroes” (hash) cannot be likened to a physical item used in electronics, jewelry, and as a value store.

While many cryptocurrency diehards would deem Ahn’s comments moot, this was just the tip of the iceberg. Another respondent, Dina Pinto, remarked that she believes that BTC doesn’t deserve a “serious product,” as she sees the nascent market surrounding the digital asset as “volatile and manipulated by the very few [that use it].” Pinto adds that the leading crypto has “no real use case.”

Thus, it could be that these comments (along with an array of similar ones) has resulted in the SEC deciding to rethink a verdict on these proposals, which would effectively legitimize this market in the eyes of millions of Americans.

Fake Volume Report

The SEC’s choice to delay the release of its final decision comes as a hubbub has risen in regards to Bitwise’s report about fake trading activity in the cryptocurrency market. While many argue that the report clears the air about this industry, thus helping the applications, there’s a potential that the SEC doesn’t see it that way. For those who missed the memo, the report revealed that 95% of all Bitcoin trading volume is likely false, meaning that index providers (and ETF service providers) have to be careful with the specifics of their offerings to mitigate manipulation and other risks.

Photo by Erol Ahmed on Unsplash

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VanEck’s Bitcoin (BTC) ETF Receives Scathing Comments, What’s The Deal?

Bitcoin Has No “Intrinsic Value”: American Investors Weigh In

Since a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) was proposed in the U.S. markets, pundits have lauded it as the single thing that could bring the cryptocurrency market from “immature” to “mature.” Others have also touted such a vehicle as the rocketship that would bring BTC to the moon, so to speak.

Yet, members of the non-crypto public aren’t too sold on the entire idea. Per a list of comments posted on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) webpage, specifically in regards to VanEck, SolidX, and the CBOE’s rule change, most are skeptical of what value cryptocurrency provides.

Sam Ahn of Hana Trading released a six-page, nine-point tear down of Bitcoin and the proposed ETF product, which would open the floodgates to BTC. While Ahn’s points were drawn-out, a clear theme of anti-mining, Satoshi Nakamoto cynicism, and “BTC doesn’t have intrinsic value” was apparent. The investor remarked that not only is Satoshi’s magnum opus hard for him to process, but that the cryptocurrency isn’t like gold as in “a string of 64-digits, with about 17 leading zeroes” (hash) cannot be likened to a physical item used in electronics, jewelry, and as a value store.

While many cryptocurrency diehards would deem Ahn’s comments moot, this was just the tip of the iceberg. Another respondent, Dina Pinto, remarked that she believes that BTC doesn’t deserve a “serious product,” as she sees the nascent market surrounding the digital asset as “volatile and manipulated by the very few [that use it].” Pinto adds that the leading crypto has “no real use case.”

Another commenter, one Sarah Malone of unknown affiliation, echoed the aforementioned comments to a tee, explaining that there is no value in BTC becoming a tradable financial product, let alone a medium of exchange.

Finally, one other played the “blockchain not Bitcoin” card, remarking that cryptocurrencies lack viability in many’s day-to-day, while ledgers hold immense value.

What all the aforementioned critics seem to be forgetting is Bitcoin’s value proposition in nations stricken with capital controls, hyperinflation, authoritarianism, among other societal shortcomings. This, of course, is because they are viewing BTC from the lens of an American citizen, many of which aren’t (currently) subject to irresponsible government and fiscal planners.

But in the end, the opinions of U.S. citizens is what is important in this case, as the product will be accessible to some of those stakeholders .

The Silver Lining

Yet, there was a silver lining. One user, going by Sami Santos, published an eight-point comment on March 12th that outlined the merits of Bitcoin, and why it needs a fund tracking it. Santos stuck to the normal Bitcoin advocate script, explaining that it is fast, cost-effective, unconfiscatable, and private (not exactly, but it’s pseudonymous).

The investor went on to explain that blockchain can mitigate corruption and money laundering, Bitcoin can be a “weapon” against financial inequity and inflation, and as a medium to bolster innovation of technologies.

In this case, Santos was Bitcoin’s sole knight in the crusade for an ETF product, which would entirely legitimize this asset. But will the SEC listen to him, or those who were a tad sardonic?

Photo by Anna Popović on Unsplash

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Former CFTC Chair Calls For More Cryptocurrency Regulations

CFTC Cryptocurrency Regulation 2019

A report published by the Brookings Institution and authored by Harvard University fellow Timothy Massad calls for improved regulation of cryptocurrency.

Massad, who served as chairman of the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) during President Barack Obama’s administration, outlined the need for regulations on digital currencies, including their use in illicit activity, as well as providing a way to reduce the risk of cyber attacks.

In the report, Massad explains that the current landscape of cryptocurrency leaves the market open for fraud due to the absence of traditional market standards imposed on securities and derivatives, a feature which only serves to hurt investors via the lack of protection. Massad also targeted cryptocurrency exchanges and their lack of oversight, which has led to repeated instances of fraud, market manipulation and conflicts in interest. He then stressed the need for regulations imposed on exchanges in order minimize operational risk while putting into place measures to safeguard investors.

“Crypto exchanges are not required to have systems to prevent fraud and manipulation, nor are there rules to prevent or minimize conflicts of interest. Crypto exchanges can engage in proprietary trading against their customers, something the New York Stock Exchange cannot do. Regulations to minimize operational risk and ensure system safeguards are needed, just as with securities and derivatives intermediaries.”

The 60 page report also took a shot at the shortcomings of Bitcoin, namely the failure of cryptocurrency to fulfill its original intention. Instead of providing trust, Massad wrote that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have created “regulatory distraction” which has contributed to an even greater problem in lack of accountability,

The hype surrounding Bitcoin and other crypto-assets has contributed to regulatory distraction. Bitcoin’s creators promised it would solve the “trust problem” and reduce our reliance on centralized financial intermediaries. However, it has not reduced our reliance on financial intermediaries or eroded the power of our largest institutions. Indeed, crypto-assets have created new financial intermediaries that are less accountable than the big banks.

The former CFTC Chairman called upon the powers of the U.S. Congress to address the issues related to crypto market fraud and the looming problem cybersecurity and potential illicit use through digital assets. As for handling the lack of regulation in cryptocurrency exchanges, Massad is not alone in advocating for reform.

The Winklevoss Twins, who recently made headlines for their comments about Facebook’s stablecoin, have been a driving force for cryptocurrency regulation through their crypto exchange Gemini. While the twins have previously been denied in their attempt to create the first U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission approved Bitcoin ETF, they believe self-policed and self-generated regulation to be the surest path to enticing institutional investment.

However, some community members have continued to embrace the lack of regulation for the cryptocurrency industry. While diminished oversight does allow for manipulation and fraud, it also prevents coin projects from making concessions in their decentralization, thereby fulfilling the original promise of crypto as an alternative to government-run fiat. In addition, the fear is that greater regulation will make the industry no different than that of the traditional financial markets, including the uneven influence imposed by established banking players.

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Nasdaq’sTokenizing Platform In Trial, Product Manager Confirms

The writing is on the wall. Nasdaq don’t want to be left behind and are quickly adapting. Acknowledging the frailties, the exchange’s Blockchain Product Manager, Johan Toll, said the fragmented nature and intermediary packed operations mutual fund business leads to slow transactions. So outdated are current technologies that fax machines are still in use and that is why he sees blockchain as a remedy. In his view, he is looking forward to a system where share issuance is instantaneous and done via the blockchain. Good news is, Nasdaq is testing such an efficient and fast system in Sweden.

Read: Crypto Analyst: Ethereum (ETH) Major Shift Potential Is Building

Add this to recent events, it is clear that there is a shift in progress and leading this change is Nasdaq. The US based exchange is the second largest in the world. The exchange is also one of the most liquid mercantile whose data sources must be vetted. Recently, the Nasdaq launched the Bitcoin and Ethereum Liquid indices as they aid in bringing more reliability and preciseness of the asset prices of these two leading crypto assets.

What Bitcoin and Ethereum Indices Means

Because pricing is a major concern for the US SEC, the involvement of Nasdaq, a trusted exchange drawing their data from vetted firms relying on approved methodologies as they calculate index prices with all variable factored in, is definitely a move in the right direction.

In fact, all things constant, it could be a precursor for the eventual approval of the “elusive” Bitcoin ETF and other crypto derivatives drawing institutional traders according to Alex Ziupsnys. Alex is a leading crypto analyst:

“NASDAQ to add a bitcoin index on its platform. They are reading the writing on the wall and don’t want to get left behind. There is no stopping this. Adoption happens gradually right in front of you, until you finally pause, look around, and bitcoin is the dominant asset. This is big news. The launch of Nasdaq crypto indices could lead to regulatory approval for crypto-based derivatives in the market. And as a direct initial effect could mean more interest from institutional traders.”

Path to Crypto Derivatives Approval?

The US commission previously rejected Winklevoss application back in Q2 2018 citing risk of price manipulation while advocating for proper monitoring tools. Because of the open, global and largely unregulated nature of cryptocurrencies, the commission were in a way recommending broadcast of Bitcoin prices from a trusted firm—like Nasdaq—and not from traditional cryptocurrency exchanges where prices often fluctuate. This is so it is virtually impossible for all Bitcoin related transactions to be audited. In an extract, the commission said:

“The Commission believes that, in order to meet this standard, an exchange that lists and trades shares of commodity-trust exchange-traded products (“ETPs”) must, in addition to other applicable requirements, satisfy two requirements that are dispositive in this matter. First, the exchange must have surveillance-sharing agreements with significant markets for trading the underlying commodity or derivatives on that commodity. And second, those markets must be regulated.”

Also Read: The Fourth Largest Private Employer in the US Says No to Visa, May Accept Bitcoin

As the exchange gravitate towards tokenization, many are banking on Nasdaq to prop the markets since they have the experience, the tech and the infrastructure necessary to prevent manipulation of Bitcoin prices. Their participation could lead to proper and fair representation of asset prices. The medium-term effect will be renewed confidence in a market plagued by uncertainty. Approved pricing will surely draw institutional investors, deepening liquidity and increasing chances of a possible Bitcoin ETF approval.

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Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC/USD Accumulating as VanEck Subsidiary Work on “Transparency”

Latest Bitcoin News

Of course, price is not the only metric of interest as far as Bitcoin is concerned. Adoption rate and infrastructure development is of interest. Though the coin is meant to by-pass third parties as regulators, we cannot discount the role of regulators and their constant talk of investor protection.

Other jurisdictions might be open but the community is closely watching if the US SEC shall proceed and approve the much-anticipated Bitcoin ETF come Feb 27, 2019. That’s two and a half months from now and before then, bears seem to have an upper hand especially when we take a top-down approach.

Read: BTCC Co-Founder Lee Hints At $333,000 Bitcoin (BTC) Prediction For 2021

From the look of things, we can only guess the route that SEC might take and considering more banks are showing their interest in the space, we can only speculate that they might just give the VanEck Bitcoin ETF a pass.

Earlier, the SEC cited transparency saying the market was prone for manipulations and various stakeholders are now working on ensuring complete openness. A few days ago, a Frankfurt based company with relations to VanEck did launch MVIS Bitcoin US OTC Spot Index (MVBTCO).

Also Read: Bitcoin Price Prediction Gone Wrong: $1M Options Call To Be Purged

The index core objective is to promote transparency and to that end it draws its price feeds from Cumberland, Circle Trade and Genesis Trading. Most of the time institutions trade through liquid OTC firms and this index is a reliable benchmark for their investment.

BTC/USD Price Analysis

BTC/USD Price Analysis

There are hints of BTC demand in lower time frames and in the last day, BTC/USD is up 1.7 percent. This is modest to say the least and that means bears are still in control. On a weekly basis, BTC/USD is down 15 percent but considering events of the last few days, bears appear to be slowing down and range bound in lower time frames. Clear floors are at $3280.

Trend: Bearish, Momentum Fading

Aside from the negative sloping trend line connecting highs of the last few weeks, losses of the last few weeks are a reliable indicator of trend. But, even as bears threaten to drive prices lower, BTC demand is increasing in lower time frames. In the 4HR chart, prices are ranging within a tight $500 range with clear resistance and support at $3,800 and $3,280.

Volumes: Bullish, Increasing

What we have in this time frames are a series of higher highs with floors at $3,280 as BTC/USD range horizontally. Unless otherwise there are gains above $3,800 resistance, bears are in control but we are rooting for bulls thanks to standout bull bars of the last two days. Dec 7–22k versus 11k average by 1900 HRs, Dec 8—17k versus 8k 2300 HRs bar and Dec 9—7k versus 5k average bull bars are of interest as far as BTC/USD price analysis is concerned.  Notice that even from an effort versus result point of view, prices are still trending inside Dec 8 bull bar. For buyers to be in charge, then bulls must thrust prices above $3,810. Thereafter in a bull breakout trade, traders can buy on dips or at spot with first targets at $4,500 with stops at Dec 9 lows at around $3,500.

Candlestick Formation: Breakout Trade, Range

Clearly, BTC/USD is within a bear breakout trade but ranging as aforementioned. But, for bulls to be in charge then we must see high volumes gains printing above Nov lows of $3,800. This move will invalidate the bear breakout pattern of Dec 6. However, if prices fail to recover printing below Dec 9 lows then we shall have a retest and odds are BTC might test $3,280—or lower by the end of the week.

Conclusion

From candlestick arrangement, bulls might recover above $3,800. As such, our BTC/USD trade plan will be as follows:

Buy Trigger: $3,800—Dec 8 Highs

Stops: $3,500—Dec 9 Lows

First Targets: $4,500

All Charts courtesy of Trading View.

This is not Investment Advice. Do you own Research.

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