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Analysts: A Bitcoin (BTC) Breakout Could Be Happening In November

Throughout summer, Bitcoin price has been swinging between $6,000 and $8,000. However, according to some price analysts, Bitcoin price may well see a breakout come November. Forbes’ Billy Bambrough opines that market experts expect the breakout as early as November this year. However, he recognizes that a section of these experts are pegging their hopes on September, with the end month favored.

The Prospects

This breakout is expected because of two primary reasons: First, SEC is deliberating on whether to approve the Bitcoin ETF application presented by SolidX/VanEck. The decision is set to happen on or before September 30, and hopes are high that the proposal might be approved especially after the decision was delayed. Also, the fact that SEC announced its decision to review 9 other ETF applications turned down recently is another strong indication that things could turn out positive for the crypto.

Secondly, the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which is NYSE’s parent company, is set to launch a Bitcoin ETF on 5th November. The ICE launched a crypto platform, Bakkt, back in July and has partnered with large corporations like Microsoft, Boston Consulting Group, and Starbucks. However, the ICE’s ETF will differ from others in that it will be offered via its own platform and will use Bitcoin for every transaction conducted on its network. This measure is aimed at improving price discovery.

Finnbjornsson: Bitcoin Price To Hit $10,000

Bambrough also cited another expert, Hermann Finnbjornsson, who said that the value of Bitcoin could swell up to hit $10,000 within the first week of November. Hermann is the founder and chief executive at Svandis, a crypto advisory firm. Speaking to The Street, Hermann said that Bitcoin had a more than 99% chance to succeed in a bullish run.

However, there’s a still some debate within the crypto community about whether Bitcoin really needs an ETF approval to succeed. So far, the cryptocurrency has survived and weathered storms for a whole decade since its inception back in 2009. This puts to question the impact of an ETF approval on the Bitcoin market.  Granted, there exists a possibility of the cryptocurrency being over-financialized as a result of an ETF.

In any case, the events of late September and early November will spell out the future of the coin market. If both ETFs pull through, it could mean a huge boom with a significant price upshot for the cryptocurrency.

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Abra CEO Blames Biased SEC Process for Bitcoin ETF Rejection

Bitcoin (BTC), Exchange-Traded Fund—While the crypto markets exhibit continued price volatility, the industry focus remains on how the U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission will handle Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds going forward. While the SEC has thus far rejected all ETF proposals, the language in the rejection has given the industry some hope in the fact that the regulatory firm recognizes the growing potential of blockchain—just not the current iteration to produce an ETF. While analysts, industry forecasters and outside pundits weigh in on the reasoning for continued ETF denial, from the format of the proposal to the companies submitting them, Abra’s CEO Bill Barhydt has a different taken on the reasoning.

Abra, a cryptocurrency payment platform and app-based exchange, is not among the current crop of companies vying for the position as head of the first approved Bitcoin ETF. However its founder and CEO Bill Barhydt’s background on Wall Street has given him greater insight to the inner-workings of the SEC and led him to conclude that cryptocurrency is largely suffering from an image problem. Speaking in an interview with CNBC , Barhydt states that he does believe a Bitcoin ETF will reach approval stage by the SEC before year’s end, but the current holdup is being driven over a lack of familiarity between the regulatory group and crypto industry. Specifically, Barhydt cites that the cryptocurrency exchange leaders that are submitting applications for ETF-approval “don’t fit the mold” of the typical executive that the commission has historically dealt with.

As much as the SEC has given reasoning for rejecting thus-far submitted ETFs, which have all received similar language in the denial reply, Barhydt blames personality and industry profile for being at the heart of the problem. Essentially, the crypto industry does not fit the mold created by typical Wall Street interaction—a feature that could continue to cause delay in receiving approval,

“I think the issue with the SEC, quite frankly, is that the people who are doing the applications don’t fit mold of who the SEC is used to approving. I used to work for Goldman Sachs, but if you look at how I’m dressed you probably wouldn’t know it. So I probably, unfortunately, couldn’t go like I am here to a meeting at the SEC to say I’m applying for the ability to issue an ETF.”

In August, Gemini cryptocurrency exchange founders and high profile investors Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss’s bid for a Bitcoin ETF was rejected along with several other applications. VanEck, which has been at forefront of the ETF process and is favored to be the first to receive approval, had its proposed application delayed until the end of this month. In all, the crypto markets took a massive hit in valuation following the delayed/rejected action of the SEC, with all of late July and early August’s positive price gains being eroded in the span of a week. While the current trend in market pricing looks to be making a small recovery, with BTC clinging to $7000, altcoins continue to make a major hit—leading some to conclude that the hope of an ETF approval is still driving most of the price interest.

However, not everyone has been pleased with the overwhelming shift in focus of the industry and investment base towards greater regulation. Andreas Antonopoulos, a mainstay figure and one of the most genuine supporters of blockchain and cryptocurrency, claims that the Bitcoin ETF will do more harm than good. Myopic investors, particularly those looking to cryptocurrency as a pathway to fast profit, are hanging on SEC approval of an ETF as the leverage needed to spur ‘institutional investors’: the big Wall Street firms that are waiting for a less murky landscape before they start pouring money in. Cryptocurrency purists see increased regulation as a diversion from the real use of cryptocurrency and adoption for the technology.

Regardless, Barhydt is confident ETF approval will happen sometime in the near future,

“It’s going to happen in the next year, I would actually make a bet on it. There is too much demand for it.”

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Reports: A Bitcoin ETF Could Be Approved In 2019

The talk in town is no longer about if a Bitcoin ETF will be approved, but rather when. That means that the approval is currently deemed imminent. However, the crypto market may have to wait a while longer for this to happen as it is unlikely to come into play in 2018. Predictions from various sources indicate that the approval may come sometime in 2019, terming the year as the more realist period for the expected development.

SEC To Review Verdict

Perhaps one of the more important factors that could affect this perception is the issue surrounding the US SEC’s decision to review its earlier verdict to reject ETF approval proposals by the Winklevoss twins. At the moment, the approval seems imminent, but it’s the timing that has some people concerned.

An ETF includes any kind of fund, be it mutual or hedge fund, that is traded within a listed exchange platform. With an ETF, most assets traded are regulated by CFTC or SEC. Currently, very few crypto assets are recognized by these two regulatory bodies. As such, any trading fund would need to list its shareholders as securities. Because of these regulatory challenges, SEC is still wary of approving their ETF proposals.

There Have Been Attempts

There have been noted attempts to get SEC to approve ETF applications, with the most noticeable being the recent proposals presented by the Winklevoss twins in March 2017 and July 2018. However, the two applications were turned down. More applications have followed, from various other parties, with varied revisions and details.

In August 5 2018, a report from the US Equity Research and written by Scott Suh andMichael Graham opined that the imminent approval of a Bitcoin ETF was at the top of the agenda for the majority of institutions seeking to breaking into the new digital asset class. They mentioned the application by SolidX /VanEck as one of the various applications awaiting verdict. Although some major industry players don’t really take a Bitcoin ETF as very necessary, there’s a general consensus that its approval would likely trigger a short-term event and it could well fuel a bullish run.

As for the proposal presented by VanEck/SolidX, the SEC review date has been set for September, and there’s a possibility that this date may be change. This makes 2019 the more realistic timeline for the review and possible approval of a Bitcoin ETF. However, the ball is now in SEC’s court, and the market can only anticipate.

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The Federal Court Of California Is Now Accepting Bitcoin For Bail Payments

A Federal Court in the United States has received Bitcoin as payment for a defendant’s bail. According to media sources, this is the first time something like is happening. The defendant, Martin Marsich, was facing charges of hacking into a gaming company. The California court allowed him to settle his bail amounting to $750,000 using Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency.

Court’s Main Objective

Explaining the incident, Abraham Simmons, who is the Assistant District Attorney, said that technically, defendants can settle their bail payments in any credible format or in whatever way ordered by the judge, and this includes a third party’s real estate. He added that the main objective was to ensure that the defendant complies with court orders to appear for proceedings at a later date.

Simmons argued that the use of cryptos to pay bail is not likely to face challenges associated with fluctuating prices and exchange rates. He said that the court doesn’t really care about issues of price appreciation or depreciation since its main goal is to ensure that the defendant is compelled to appear in court and not to maintain the value of the cryptocurrency.

Lawmakers Don’t Want It, Agents Want It

The acceptance of crypto bails by the California court is bound to surprise some people, although it wasn’t entirely unexpected. However, lawmakers continue to view cryptocurrencies suspiciously as they’re linked to illegal activities mainly because of the anonymous nature of most crypto transactions. This is despite the fact that California is one of the US states with the most accommodative laws governing the use of cryptocurrencies.

However, opinions within the US DEA indicate that as law enforcement agencies understand the use of cryptos better, the general acceptance of the digital assets increases. According to agent Lilia Infante, the blockchain technology gives law enforcement agencies many ways to track people’s identities and that actually serves to make the agencies’ jobs easier. In fact, agent Lilia would like people to keep using cryptocurrencies. The agent was speaking to Bloomberg.

This kind of development hasn’t started today. It is likely as a result of continued build up of positive efforts to improve both general public and legal perception of cryptocurrencies. Just last year, a project was started in New York to gather crypto funds aimed at helping pay bail for defendants who can’t manage to meet their bail terms.

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Bitcoin ETN Makes its Debut in the United States

Investors in the United States who wish to trade Bitcoin without having to buy the cryptocurrency have been given another route to the top-ranked virtual currency via Bitcoin Exchange Traded Notes (ETN).

Details of the Bitcoin ETN

According to Bloomberg, starting Wednesday American investors will now have access to Bitcoin Tracker One, and BTC ETN. The product which runs under the CXBTF ticker will be quoted in U.S. dollars. However, the clearing and settlement of the trade will be in Krona and Euro since the product is listed and regulated in Sweden.

The ETN is issued by XBT Provider, a subsidiary of CoinShares. The company developed the product in 2015. In July 2018, Amsterdam-based EU speed trading behemoth, Flow Traders became the first company to participate in the BTC ETN market.

For Americans, trading is this particular Bitcoin ETN is like purchasing a U.S. depository receipt in that a foreign-listed asset is denominated in U.S. dollars. Commenting on the ETN, CEO of Coinshares, Ryan Radloff said:

Everyone that’s investing in dollars can now get exposure to these products, whereas before, they were only available in euros or Swedish krona. Given the current climate on the regulatory front in the U.S., this is a big win for Bitcoin.

ETN Might Represent a Soft Opening for Bitcoin ETF

The introduction of BTC ETN trading capability in the United States could be seen as a soft opening for the much sought after Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). The SEC has far remained unmoved in its reticence concerning issuing approval for any BTC ETF.

Recently, the Commission denied the Winklevoss twins’ ETF application while postponing its decision on the VanEck/SolidX, as well as the Direxion filings. According to the SEC, issues relating to liquidity, custodial tools, and price manipulation haven’t been sufficiently addressed.

ETNs and ETFs are similar in some respects as they provide an opportunity to invest in an asset without actually owning the asset. Such a trading avenue seems perfect for cryptocurrencies given their price volatility. However, a few subtle differences exist between the two. Rather than being an asset pool, ETN is more like a debt instrument that is backed by a bank or any other recognized issuing institution.

Do you think the Bitcoin ETN will gain traction in the American market? Keep the conversation going in the comment section below.

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Recent Market Drop Reveals Industry Is Entirely Speculative Driven

Cryptocurrency–Confusing is the best word to sum up how the crypto markets have performed over the preceding weeks. Despite the excitement of July and early August’s price rally, a welcome sign in an otherwise severely bearish year, the crypto markets have again failed to hold momentum and slipped backwards. While Bitcoin has managed to sustain above $6000 for the time being, many of the top ten altcoins and beyond have reached all time lows for the year–some of which are approaching their valuation prior to 2017’s end of year explosion.

The result is investors and cryptocurrency enthusiasts left scratching their head and wondering how an investment class that is already eclipsing 90 percent in losses from the beginning of the year can continue to fall.

Some place the blame on the recent emphasis over a Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund. While ETFs were hardly mentioned during 2017’s bull run (most of the news on that front was consumed with CBOE’s launch of BTC futures) the recent narrative in crypto has approached near obsession over the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission green-lighting a Bitcoin ETF. The largest proponents of a BTC ETF are the same that continually rally around the “institutional money is coming” slogan, a belief that once Wall Street and other big-capital investors turn their sights to cryptocurrency prices will resume smashing all-time highs. However, the net effect has been an investment base hinging upon news of ETF approval, as opposed to any discussion on the advancement and adoption of cryptocurrency.

While 2017 will be remembered as one of the most bullish crypto markets of all time, 2018 has been far more practical in the sense that crypto’s real world presence is growing. Stories of adoption that are commonplace today would have been celebrated endlessly just twelve months ago. It’s understandable considering the wild price ride to end 2017 brought in a host of new investors–many of which are sitting on >50 percent losses–that are looking to recoup on their investment or find some positive spin on the massive fallout in value. However, speculation alone will not continue to drive the industry. The dot.com bubble never came close to killing the internet, despite the massive amount of capital it flushed down the drain in addition to shuttered companies, because the internet proved itself to be a resilient and necessary technology. Most within the industry of cryptocurrency find similar value in Bitcoin and other projects, it’s just the focus which has shifted away to endless discussion of price.

The Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) published a report last week concluding that 70 percent of price movements within the crypto markets could be classified as speculative “momentum driven” interest. Value investing has gone out the window as nearly every cryptocurrency community experiences the inverse reaction of positive news being met with declining price. Again, the blame can somewhat be tied to the overall market reliance upon the health of BTC: altcoins rarely hold a standalone impact, and are always at the mercy of the original cryptocurrency when the market turns downward.

But even research into the various technologies, development teams and stories have adoption can be met with a degree of price mockery. To give a recent example, TRON announced a partnership with the world’s leading and most recognizable torrenting service BitTorrent, only to see a decline in price that is 93 percent below January’s all time high. Every currency is suffering, and investors are left with no choice but to try and time the market and cut their losses. However, most of the speculation is being driven by a pan-belief in the declining market. Investors are selling because they believe others will sell and the price will go down, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy that is not indicative of the health of the industry.

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VanEck: Bitcoin ETF Answers $1 Billion Question

Bitcoin (BTC)–The entire landscape of cryptocurrency hangs on an upcoming decision by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in relation to approving Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). While just a month ago the industry was optimistic about the creation of BTC ETFs, the last several weeks have brought about a change in narrative.

It started with the announcement of the Winklesvoss twins’ bid for creating a crypto ETF being denied by the commission, stating the possibility of manipulation as their primary concern. While the market was rallying to double digit gains for nearly the first time this year, the price subsequently took a hit to below $8,000 for BTC. However, the price drop was short lived, as the bulls once again pushed forward on the belief in coming government regulation and institutional money. Bitmex co-founder Arthur Hayes made the high-profile prediction in July that the price of BTC would have no problem reaching $50,000 by year’s end riding on the back of an approved ETF. Unfortunately, the bullish turn in the market did not last for more than a week, with prices falling to below $7,000 and negating the positive momentum created from the ETF hype.

VanEck, a New York-based investment management firm, recently spoke with CoinDesk in an interview about the possibility of crypto ETFs and the impact they will have upon the market and industry. Gabor Gurbacs, director of digital asset strategy, put it this way when posed with the question about whether a Bitcoin ETF will be approved in the upcoming decision,

“I wish I knew the answer to your $1 billion question. Seriously.”

VanEck has been in the headlines as one of a handful of investment firms vying for creation of the first BTC ETF, with the company currently being a favorite in the race for approval. CoinDesk probed further in the interview, asking Gurbacs point-blank how he felt about his company’s chance to be green-lighted for operating the fund,

“Unfortunately, I don’t know the answer. I do know that we have addressed market structure issues and this is a chance for regulators to bring bitcoin under existing frameworks and protect investors.”

CoinDesk goes on to outline the steps VanEck has taken in securing its proposal to the SEC, a move that started three years ago via a the financial company SolidX which first sought to bring an ETF to the market. Gurbacs also makes a strong case for his company’s position over the recently denied Winklevoss ETF, stating that his company is planning to deliver an insured product, with all of the Bitcoin in the fund covered in a situation of “theft and hacks and losses of all sort.”

Gurbacs words go a long way in describing why the market has become consumed with the prospect of a BTC exchange traded fund, namely the security and protection it offers to Wall Street and other institutional investors. In addition, a positive ruling by the SEC would come with government regulations–which may be lamented by the crypto industry’s decentralized ethos–but provide a clearer picture for big-money firms looking to operate in the space. The current state of cryptocurrency is one plagued with hacks and other forms of scandal, with the legality of it all murky by most institutional standards.

Indeed, Gurbacs reiterates the company’s stance towards creating a product that is focused on institutional investors,

“Today, the bitcoin markets are still 90-95 percent retail and institutions are looking for a way to get into these markets so the physical ETF we have tailored to institutions.”

While Wall Street will bring an influx of funds to the crypto markets, hopefully to elevate the price of Bitcoin, some industry figures have become frustrated with the emphasis on SEC approval that is overriding the focus on the underlying technology.

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