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BitMEX CEO: A Bitcoin ETF is Great For Adoption, Triples-Down On $50k Prediction

Despite the SEC declining the Winklevoss Twins’ ETF proposal, the discussion of such a fund is still a hot topic within the cryptocurrency community. CNBC Africa’s “Crypto Trader” show, hosted by Ran NeuNer of OnChain Capital, recently spoke with BitMEX’s CEO regarding what an ETF means for this nascent industry.

Taking into account Bitcoin’s current price action, Ran opened up the interview by asking Arthur Hayes how BitMEX has been performing. For those who are unaware, BitMEX is one of the highest volume cryptocurrency mercantile exchanges in the world, offering up to 100x leverage for traders of the XBT (BTC) contract.

The CEO of BitMEX noted that the exchange has been doing well, as a direct result of the volatility seen in the cryptocurrency markets.

Hayes also added that the exchange had done “four to five times” the amount of volume it had facilitated in the entirety of 2017. This figure took many by surprise, as a majority of other exchanges have been seeing declining volumes. However, taking into account that BitMEX supports leverage trading, it makes sense why this may be the case.

Arthur Hayes Speaks On Crypto-Based ETFs 

The Crypto Trader host went on to question Hayes about his outlook on Crypto-backed ETFs. The exchange executive first noted that there are two proposals that have verdict dates set for September, and another two in February 2019. Extrapolating what this information means, Hayes stated that he sees a “50/50 chance that we see some decision in Q3, and again we have another two ETFs looking for approval in February of next year.”

Speaking more on the highly-anticipated VanEck and SolidX’s ETF proposition, the executive said that “I don’t know.” Although those three words may be vague, he later elaborated on this specific proposal. Hayes stated:

“I think at the end of the day that the SEC wants to keep people interested in the financial markets and if retail continues to ask for these particular products (ETFs), at some point they are going to have to approve one of them.”

The CEO went on to call out the gold ETFs, pointing out the industry surrounding one of the most valuable metals in the world is unregulated, so “how could regulators not allow a Bitcoin ETF?”

Later speaking more on the most recent ruling on the Winklevoss ETF, Hayes commended the brothers for laying the groundwork for this aspect of the crypto industry, adding that other issuers will benefit from the work completed by their unsuccessful predecessors.

Ran, seemingly not fully satisfied with that answer, went on to query the industry leader on the SEC’s fears of the “underlying” Bitcoin price manipulation. Hayes brought attention to the fact that the SEC has not shown “empirical evidence” of what the regulatory body sees as manipulation, justifying that this reasoning is just an “excuse.”

What Does An ETF Mean For The Cryptosphere?

BitMEX’s CEO sees that acceptance of such a fund will produce a capital influx from retail investors, as an ETF streamlines the process of onboarding fiat into this industry, stating:

“Retail traders do not want to have to worry about securing a Bitcoin wallet, where do they buy it from, using the different exchanges. So if all they have to do is to click on their E*Trade, Scottrade, Interactive Brokers, 401k (etc.), to buy an ETF that gives them exposure to Bitcoin, but not allow them to experience the risks of holding it, that is a very powerful way for them (retail investors) to get involved”

Closing off his time on the show, Hayes tripled-down on his $50,000 price prediction, expecting that a positive ETF verdict will push the price of Bitcoin to the stratosphere.

While some may be skeptical of his analysis and speculation, Hayes perpetually keeps his ear to the ground of this industry, so it is likely that his statements hold some credence.

Title Image Courtesy of MaxPixel


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Bitcoin Will Fall to $5,000 Before Surging to $50,000 Before the End of the Year

Bitcoin is currently in the midst of a significant price rally. Thus, many experts have come out to say that the bad days are over for the top-ranked cryptocurrency. However, one trader believes that BTC will still see another dip before soaring to a new all-time high (ATH).

Bitcoin hasn’t Seen Bottom Yet

According to Arthur Hayes, BTC hasn’t seen the bottom yet. Speaking to CNBC on Thursday (July 19, 2018), the Bitmex co-founder and CEO said:

I don’t actually think we’ve seen the worst.

Hayes expects the current price rally to take BTC up to maybe $8,000 or $90,000. The Bitmex chief identified $10,000 as the most optimistic projection for the current BTC price increase. After this point, Hayes expects another massive drop that will see the number-one ranked token based on market capitalization set a new low for 2018.

I would like to see us test 5,000 to really see if we put a bottom in.

In June 2018, Bitcoin twice fell below $6,000 setting a new 2018 low at $5,700. Experts like TenX founder, Julian Hosp, predicted that BTC would dip close to $5,000 before setting a new ATH later in the year. Hosp’s end of year price forecast was $60,000.

Bitcoin is currently trading slightly above the $7,400 mark, an increase of almost 20 percent in the last 20 days. BTC last traded above $7,000 in mid-June before going on a massive dip that saw the asset drop $1,000 in a matter of hours.

Bitcoin Will Hit $50,000 by the End of 2018

Hayes still believes that his $50,000 BTC end of year price forecast can still come true. In an email to CNBC, the Bitmex chief said:

I think the current rally will top out close to but not greater than $10,000. Then we will fall and test $5,000. If that holds then we can rally to $50,000 by year-end.

Arthur Hayes also warned traders to be wary of the summer months because according to him, investors tend to cool off a bit. However, by the end of Q3 and the start of Q4 2018, Hayes expects the bullish sentiment to return once again.

Do you agree with Arthur Hayes’ BTC price analysis? What is your end of year BTC price forecast? Keep the conversation going in the comment section below.

Image courtesy of Coinmarketcap.


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Crypto Markets Add 40 Billion USD, Claw Back From Recent Lows

Cryptocurrency Markets–Despite 2018 being a near-continuous bear cycle for cryptocurrency, the past three days have brought a significant amount of wealth back into the industry–giving investors a short glimpse of hope that the relative bottom might have been reached.

Since peaking at an all time high of 830 billion USD in the first week of January, the cryptomarkets have been in steady declining, shedding 67% of their value over the first six months. June looked even dire for investors, as all coins plummeted to their relative low this past week, with the market reaching 234 billion USD for the first time since last October.

While most investors cautiously await the performance of the market, the major currencies in the industry have all posted significant gains in the last several days, clawing back into the green for the first time since nearly the end of last year.

Bitcoin has had to contend with recent news over the failure of Lightning Network to perform consistently in transactions of larger value, but the currency is showing strength among community perception and in the willingness for investors to hold their coins through the falling price. Despite CNBC’s Crypto Trader predicting Bitcoin to test 5300 USD levels, other bullish proponents for the currency have been adding their two-cents to the dialogue. Bitmex co-founder Arthur Hayes recently made the prediction that Bitcoin would achieve 50,000 USD this year–fulfilling similar predictions made for the currency in the midst of last year’s bull run–citing the history of cryptocurrency volatility and price swings as being nothing new to veteran investors,

“something that goes up to [around] $20,000 in one year can have a correction.”

Hayes does contend that a bottom could form much lower than current prices, but highlights the fact that cryptocurrency is teetering on a precipitous edge of adoption. One small regulatory change or positive announcement could be the push needed to send the currency exponential once again,

“We could definitely find a bottom in the $3,000 to $5,000 range. But we’re one positive regulatory decision away, [maybe] an ETF approved by the SEC, to climbing through $20,000 and even to $50,000 by the end of the year.”

This time a month ago, few high-profile investors or industry figures were venturing any positive predictions for cryptocurrency in the near future. That is slowly beginning to change, with the announcement of several hedge funds venturing into crypto despite the recent price-lows.

Ryan Rabaglia, head trader with Octagon Strategy, echoed the comments of Arthur Hayes in an interview with CNBC, saying more clear market regulations would pave the way for cryptocurrency growth. The current state of the industry, without regulation or even a green-light for future regulation, has created a buffering uncertainty for professional and institutional investors. Until that barrier is removed, big-money players from Wall Street and around the world are more content to stand on the sideline, even as average investors continue to enjoy double to triple-digit gains.

While regulation has long been antithetical to the decentralized ethos of cryptocurrency, a more clearly defined legal understanding of dealing in crypto, from everything surrounding exchange operation to tax collection, could go a long way in inspiring confidence in financial institutions looking to guard against the downside of crypto investing. With both Hayes and Rabagalia remaining bullish on cryptocurrency in the event of greater regulation, it’s worth considering the impact upon market prices and industry growth.